Response of arid northeast Mexico to global climate changes during the late Pleistocene to the middle Holocene

Anthropogenic global warming might cause expansion of the drylands and trigger socio-economic challenges in the water-deficit subtropical regions. Changes in hydroclimate during the intervals of variable global temperature over the recent geological past, however, could provide useful information about the possible responses of these arid ecosystems to the near future warmer conditions. We evaluated hydroclimates of two different parts of subtropical North America by generating new records of surface processes and regional vegetation from drought-prone northeast Mexico and subsequently compared them with the paleoclimate of the central-southern United States. Our study suggests that congruent changes occurred in both parts during ~13.5–9.5 cal ka BP, an interval with no warm pool in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The precipitation and erosion responded to temperature-modulated variations in positions of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Conditions were wetter than today in the subsequent warmer interval (~9.5–8.2 cal ka BP) with generally stable ITCZ and the highest summer insolation. Hydroclimate changes of both parts lacked congruency during ~8.2–6.8 cal ka BP as the northern Gulf of Mexico began hosting a warm pool. Similar to the modern conditions, this warm pool might have modified trajectories of the tropical storms. Erosion and abundance of C₃ plants decreased in northeast Mexico. Higher wetness in the Mississippi River Basin and the southern Great Plains during this interval suggested that the storms made landfall more frequently in the central-southern United States. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Out‐of‐plane seismic response of vertically spanning URM walls connected to flexible diaphragms

A simplified numerical model was used to investigate the out‐of‐plane seismic response of vertically spanning unreinforced masonry (URM) wall strips. The URM wall strips were assumed to span between two flexible diaphragms and to develop a horizontal crack above the wall mid‐height. Three degrees of freedom were used to accommodate the wall displacement at the crack height and at the diaphragm connections, and the wall dynamic stability was studied. The equations of dynamic motion were obtained using principles of rocking mechanics of rigid bodies, and the formulae were modified to include semi‐rigid wall behaviour. Parametric studies were conducted that included calculation of the wall response for different values of diaphragm stiffness, wall properties, applied overburden, wall geometry and earthquake ground motions. The results of the study suggest that stiffening the horizontal diaphragms of typical low‐rise URM buildings will amplify the out‐of‐plane acceleration demand imposed on the wall and especially on the wall–diaphragm connections. It was found that upper‐storey walls connected to two flexible diaphragms had reduced stability for applied earthquake accelerograms having dominant frequency content that was comparable with the frequency of the diaphragms. It was also found that the applied overburden reduced wall stability by reducing the allowable wall rotations. The results of this study suggest that the existing American Society of Civil Engineers recommendations for assessment of vertically spanning walls overestimate the stability of top‐storey walls in multi‐storey buildings in high‐seismic regions or for walls connected to larger period (less stiff) diaphragms. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dissolved inorganic carbon sourcing using δ13CDIC from a karst influenced river system

Rivers, representing the primary conduits of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the continents to the oceans, are important components to the global carbon cycle. To better understand the complex carbon cycling dynamics within two nested, mixed lithology watersheds, two sites were studied along the karst influenced upper Green River in south‐central Kentucky, USA. Weekly samples were collected from June 2013 through May 2014 and analyzed for δ¹³C_DIC. The mixing model IsoSource was employed to better understand source partitioning differences over seasonal time spans and across the two nested basins. In both the lithologically mixed upstream basin (53% carbonate rocks, 47% siliciclastic) and carbonate rock dominated downstream basin (96% carbonate rocks in the drainage area between Greensburg and Munfordville, 78% in the total area upstream from Munfordville), DIC was primarily derived from soil respiration. The proportion of DIC from dissolved carbonate minerals derived from the downstream carbonate rock dominated basin was similar to the upstream basin, due to carbonate mineral dissolution having such a consistent effect on the overall DIC content of the river. Seasonally, soil respiration provided the most DIC from fall to winter. Early spring precipitation, combined with limited seasonal photosynthesis, shifted groundwater to be the primary source of DIC, bringing in a flush of carbonate mineral‐rich water during higher flows. This study provides insight into carbon dynamics across multiple lithologies and the important influence of seasonality using carbon isotope sourcing to determine carbonate mineral dissolution variability and aid in understanding its contribution to global carbon flux quantification. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Acanthaster planci</Emphasis> outbreaks in Vanuatu coincide with ocean productivity,furthering trends throughout the pacific ocean

This study identifies linkages between regional ocean productivity and the emergence of large Acanthaster planci starfish populations in Vanuatu. Positive correlations were found between wind stress, chlorophyll-a, and upwelling during January–February 2009, corresponding with coral-eating starfish occurrences. Further, temporal associations have existed between monthly wind stress and upwelling since 2000, and were predictors of past starfish events. Links between starfish emergence and oceanographic features are discussed, drawing upon evidence from other asteroid echinoderms. High regional productivity associated with anomalous oceanographic conditions in Vanuatu, and globally, can be used as early warning indicators of probable, future starfish emergence to aid the foundation and success of local management efforts.     

Growth modelling indicates hurricanes and severe storms are linked to low coral recruitment in the Caribbean

This study set out to test the hypothesis that hurricanes and tropical storms limit the recruitment and subsequent survival of massive non-branching corals on the barrier reef off the coast of Belize in the Gulf of Honduras. Overall, the surface areas of 523 individual coral specimens were measured, and recruitment dates were then modelled. There was no significant difference in coral cover or coral biodiversity between any of the sites studied (p > 0.1). There were significant differences in non-branching coral recruitment in years when hurricanes impacted the area (p < 0.05) compared with years when no hurricanes impacted the area. There were significantly more non-branching massive corals recruited in non-hurricane years (mean 7.7) than in hurricane years (mean 3.8; p = 0.011). When years with tropical storms are added to the years with hurricanes, there was significantly lower coral recruitment (mean 4.7) relative to non-storm or hurricane years (mean 7.4; p = 0.019). These results show that hurricanes and severe storms limited the recruitment and survival of massive non-branching corals of the Mesoamerican barrier reef and on patch reefs near the Belize coast in the Caribbean, and suggests that marine park managers may need to assist coral recruitment in years where there are hurricanes or severe storms.     

Global warming and 21st century drying

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twenty-first century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman-Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of ≤?1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 %. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of ≤?1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.     

Dynamical Downscaling of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in China under Current and Future Climates

Climate changes over China from the present (1996–2005) to the future (2046–2055) under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios are projected using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, version 3.7.1. The WRF model was driven by the Global 6-Hourly Bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5), Community Earth System Model dataset over China with a resolution of 30?km. The results demonstrate that WRF downscaling generally simulates more reliable spatial distributions of surface air temperature and precipitation in China with higher spatial pattern correlations and closer in magnitude to the Community Climate System Model, version 4.0, simulation results, especially near mountain ranges. The WRF projections for temperature and precipitation for the future under the two emission scenarios are compared with the present simulation. Generally stronger warming, both in mean temperature and extreme statistics, is produced by WRF-RCP8.5 than by WRF-RCP4.5. The projections for precipitation changes are more varied with season and region for both scenarios.     

Coupling of anatectic reactions and dissolution of accessory phases and the Sr and Nd isotope systematics of anatectic melts from a metasedimentary source

Advances in field observations and experimental petrology on anatectic products have motivated us to investigate the geochemical consequences of accessory mineral dissolution and nonmodal partial melting processes. Incorporation of apatite and monazite dissolution into a muscovite dehydration melting model allows us to examine the coupling of the Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd isotope systems in anatectic melts from a muscovite-bearing metasedimentary source. Modeling results show that (1) the Sm/Nd ratios and Nd isotopic compositions of the melts depend on the amount of apatite and monazite dissolved into the melt, and (2) the relative proportion of micas (muscovite and biotite) and feldspars (plagioclase and K-feldspar) that enter the melt is a key parameter determining the Rb/Sr and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of the melt. Furthermore, these two factors are not, in practice, independent. In general, nonmodal partial melting of a pelitic source results in melts following one of two paths in ε_Nd-⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio space. A higher temperature, fluid-absent path (Path 1) represents those partial melting reactions in which muscovite/biotite dehydration and apatite but not monazite dissolution play a significant role; the melt will have elevated Rb/Sr, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, Sm/Nd, and ε_Nd values. In contrast, a lower temperature, fluid-fluxed path (Path 2) represents those partial melting reactions in which muscovite/biotite dehydration plays an insignificant role and apatite but not monazite stays in the residue; the melt will have lower Rb/Sr, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, Sm/Nd, and ε_Nd values than its source. The master variables controlling both accessory phase dissolution (and hence the Sm-Nd system), and melting reaction (and hence the Rb-Sr systematics) are temperature and water content. The complexity in Sr-Nd isotope systematics in metasediment-derived melts, as suggested in this study, will help us to better understand the petrogenesis for those granitic plutons that have a significant crustal source component.     

The influence of land surface changes on regional climate in Northwest China

Land surface changes effect the regional climate due to the complex coupling of land-atmosphere interactions. From 1995 to 2000, a decrease in the vegetation density and an increase in ground-level thermodynamic activity has been documented by multiple data sources in Northwest China, including meteorological, reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF）, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration＇s （NOAA） Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer （AVHRR） and TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder （TOVS） satellite remote sensing data. As the ground-level thermodynamic activity increases, humid air from the surrounding regions converge toward desert （and semi-desert） regions, causing areas with high vegetation cover to become gradually more arid. Furthermore, land surface changes in Northwest China are responsible for a decrease in total cloud cover, a decline in the fraction of low and middle clouds, an increase in high cloud cover （due to thermodynamic activity） and other regional climatic adaptations. It is proposed that, beginning in 1995, these cloud cover changes contributed to a ＂green- house＂ effect, leading to the rapid air temperature increases and other regional climate impacts that have been observed over Northwest China.     

Historical variability and feedbacks among land cover,stream power,and channel geometry along the lower Canadian River floodplain in Oklahoma

In 1820, the lower Canadian River meandered through a densely forested floodplain. By 1898, most of the floodplain had been cleared for agriculture and changes in channel geometry and specific stream power followed, particularly channel widening and straightening with a lower potential specific stream power. In 1964, a large upstream hydropower dam was constructed, which changed the flow regime in the lower Canadian River and consequently the channel geometry. Without destructive overbank floods, the channel narrowed rapidly and considerably due to encroachment by floodplain vegetation. The lower Canadian River, which was once a highly dynamic floodplain‐river system, has now been transformed into a relatively static river channel. These changes over the past 200 years have not been linear or independent. In this article, we use a variety of data sources to assess these historical changes along the lower Canadian River floodplain and identify feedbacks among floodplain cultivation, dam construction, specific stream power, and channel width, slope, and sinuosity. Finally, we combine the results of our study with others in the region to present a biogeomorphic response model for large Great Plains rivers that characterizes channel width changes in response to climate variability and anthropogenic disturbances. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.