A growing number of commentators are forecasting a near-term peak and subsequent terminal decline in the global production
of conventional oil as a result of the physical depletion of the resource. These forecasts frequently rely on the estimates
of the ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of different regions, obtained through the use of curve-fitting to historical trends in discovery or production. Curve-fitting was originally pioneered by M. King Hubbert in the context
of an earlier debate about the future of the US oil production. However, despite their widespread use, curve-fitting techniques
remain the subject of considerable controversy. This article classifies and explains these techniques and identifies both
their relative suitability in different circumstances and the level of confidence that may be placed in their results. This
article discusses the interpretation and importance of the URR estimates, indicates the relationship between curve fitting
and other methods of estimating the URR and classifies the techniques into three groups. It then investigates each group in
turn, indicating their historical origins, contemporary application and major strengths and weaknesses. The article then uses
illustrative data from a number of oil-producing regions to assess whether these techniques produce consistent results as
well as highlight some of the statistical issues raised and suggesting how they may be addressed. The article concludes that
the applicability of curve-fitting techniques is more limited than adherents claim and that the confidence bounds on the results
are wider than usually assumed. 相似文献
Abstract: The restricted influence of geographers in the policy arena has been the source of some angst. This paper reports on a new initiative at the University of Canterbury, which aims to strengthen geography's contribution to health policy debates in New Zealand. The GeoHealth Laboratory is a joint initiative between the Department of Geography and Public Health Intelligence group at the Ministry of Health that seeks to provide a pathway for the integration of health geography research into policy development. This new facility aligns the expertise in health geography, GIS and other spatial analytical methods with policy-relevant research priorities. An overview of the strategic aims of the GeoHealth Laboratory is provided along with some examples of recent research activities that are contributing to understandings of the health landscape in New Zealand. It is argued that such partnerships provide important opportunities for geographers to engage with policy-relevant issues. 相似文献
The possibility of observing satellites with the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) technique has been discussed for several years in the geodetic community, with observations of either existing satellites of the global navigation satellite systems or of satellites dedicated to realise a space tie. Such observations were carried out using the Australian telescopes in Hobart and Ceduna which, for the first time, integrated all the necessary steps: planning the observations (automated scheduling), correlation of the data and the generation of a series of time delay observables suitable for a subsequent geodetic analysis. We report on the development of new and the adaptation of existing routines for observing and data processing, focusing on technology development. The aim was to use methods that are routinely used in geodetic VLBI. A series of test experiments of up to six hours duration was performed, allowing to improve the observations from session to session and revealing new problems still to be solved. The newly developed procedures and programs now enable more observations. Further development assumed, this bears the prospect of being directly applied to the observation of dedicated space-tie satellites. 相似文献
Many actions to reduce GHG emissions have wider impacts on health, the economy, and the environment, beyond their role in mitigating climate change. These ancillary impacts can be positive (co-benefits) or negative (conflicts). This article presents the first quantitative review of the wider impacts on health and the environment likely to arise from action to meet the UK's legally-binding carbon budgets. Impacts were assessed for climate measures directed at power generation, energy use in buildings, and industry, transport, and agriculture. The study considered a wide range of health and environmental impacts including air pollution, noise, the upstream impacts of fuel extraction, and the lifestyle benefits of active travel. It was not possible to quantify all impacts, but for those that were monetized the co-benefits of climate action (i.e. excluding climate benefits) significantly outweigh the negative impacts, with a net present value of more than £85 billion from 2008 to 2030. Substantial benefits arise from reduced congestion, pollution, noise, and road accidents as a result of avoided journeys. There is also a large health benefit as a result of increased exercise from walking and cycling instead of driving. Awareness of these benefits could strengthen the case for more ambitious climate mitigation action.
Policy relevance
This article demonstrates that actions to mitigate GHG emissions have significant wider benefits for health and the environment. Including these impacts in cost–benefit analysis would strengthen the case for the UK (and similar countries) to set ambitious emissions reduction targets. Understanding co-benefits and trade-offs will also improve coordination across policy areas and cut costs. In addition, co-benefits such as air quality improvements are often immediate and local, whereas climate benefits may occur on a longer timescale and mainly in a distant region, as well as being harder to demonstrate. Dissemination of the benefits, along with better anticipation of trade-offs, could therefore boost public support for climate action. 相似文献
Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review, we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy. 相似文献