Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Solubility of alumina in orthopyroxene plus spinel as a geobarometer in complex systems. Applications to spinel-bearing alpine-type peridotites

The addition of Fe and Cr to the simple system MgO-SiO₂-Al₂O₃ markedly affects the activities of phases involved in the equilibrium

Turbidity and suspended sediment dynamics in small catchments in the Nepal Middle Hills

The Himalayan environment has, until recently, been perceived to be in a critical state of environmental decline, resulting from rapid population growth and associated land‐use change. Recent research, however, has emphasized the difficulty of developing an objective appraisal of the state of the environment in a region where empirical data are scarce and unstructured and where an understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of natural environmental processes remains highly uncertain. This paper presents results from an intensive three‐year project designed to help address the regional empirical deficit, establish detailed baseline environmental data and to gain an insight into storm period and seasonal suspended sediment dynamics. The instrumentation, calibration and analysis of high‐frequency infrared turbidimetric records from a number of small subcatchments in the Nepal Middle Hills are reported. Storm period and seasonal variation in turbidity and suspended sediment are examined and hysteresis patterns explored and explained. A variety of methods to estimate seasonal suspended sediment yield in a mixed land‐use catchment are examined, and found to vary by up to a factor of five. Despite the inherent uncertainty, all estimates of catchment sediment yield are found to be high with respect to erosion plot studies from the local area, and this suggests the importance of riparian and channel erosion as major sediment sources, a finding consistent with other regional studies. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time–space continuity of daily maps of fractional snow cover and albedo from MODIS

Using reflectance values from the seven MODIS “land” bands with 250 or 500 m resolution, along with a corresponding cloud product, we estimate the fraction of each 500 m pixel that snow covers, along with the albedo of that snow. The daily products have data gaps and errors because of cloud cover and sensor viewing geometry. Rather than make users interpolate and filter these patchy daily maps without completely understanding the retrieval algorithm and instrument properties, we use the daily time series to improve the estimate of the measured snow properties for a particular day. We use a combination of noise filtering, snow/cloud discrimination, and interpolation and smoothing to produce our best estimate of the daily snow cover and albedo. We consider two modes: one is the “predictive” mode, whereby we estimate the snow-covered area and albedo on that day using only the data up to that day; the other is the “retrospective” mode, whereby we reconstruct the history of the snow properties for a previous period.     

Frictional heat generation and seismic radiation in a foam rubber model of earthquakes

Results from a study of stick-slip particle motion at the interface between two stressed foam rubber blocks indicate that normal vibrations and interface separation are an important part of the stick-slip process in foam rubber. The dimension of the dynamic slip pulse is small compared to the dimension of the model (approximately 10 cm vs. 200 cm) consistent with the abrupt-locking slip pulse model ofBrune (1970, 1976), andHeaton (1990). A comparison of frictional heat generation between stable-sliding and stick-slip foam rubber models indicates a linear relation between the temperature increase on the fault surface (for a given distance of slip) and the driving shear force for the stable-sliding model, while for the stick-slip model there is essentially no variation in frictional heat generation with an increase in shear stress. We performed experiments to investigate the ratio of normal motion to shear motion at different levels of normal stress in the stick-slip foam rubber model. Preliminary result indicate that the normal component of the particle motion increases more rapidly with increasing normal stress than the shear component. The phenomenon of interface separation and normal vibrations may thus explain some of the most frustrating problems in earthquake mechanics, e.g., the heat flow paradox, the long-term weakness of major active faults, and anomalousP-wave radiation.     

Scaling procedures for heterogeneous unconfined aquifers

Complex flows in heterogeneous confined and unconfined aquifers is a phenomenon that continues to present difficulties in flow mapping and modelling in the field, laboratory, and through numerical simulations. It is often the case with complicated phenomena that transformative scaling and reduction of the problem through symmetry is of great efficacy in the formation of predictive models in both the laboratory and computational settings. A detailed a study of the application of a broad class of Lie scaling transformations on a set of equations representing the groundwater flows in heterogeneous confined and unconfined aquifers has produced a set of scaling relationships between the spatial variables, hydrologic variables, and parameters. The set of scaling transformations preserve the structure of the equations in the sense that the scaling transformations leave the initial‐boundary value system representing the invariant groundwater flows. This theoretical approach elucidates not only the scaling relationships but also the properties that hydrologic variables and parameters must satisfy in order for calling to be possible. Validation of the theory developed is carried out through a series of four numerical simulations using the USGS modflow ‐2005 software package. The results of these experiments demonstrate that the derived scaling transformations can effectively form predictive models of large‐scale phenomena at small scales with negligible error in many cases. Comments on the limitations of the approach and directions for future research are made in the closing sections. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.