The Role of the Magnetic Field in the Ascension of the 22nd and 23rd Cycles of Activity

The first small active regions of the last two new cycles seem to be formed, in its very first, preparatory stage, close to the equator with uncertain magnetic orientation, and as secondary products at the periphery of equatorial `magnetic bubbles' of the new magnetic flux still belonging to the old cycle. At the real beginning of the new cycle, at the periphery of its higher-latitude `magnetic bubbles', the opposite applies to the secondary regions of the ending cycle. It seems that two modes of magnetic flux supply the visible layers of the photosphere during the cycle transition phase: the emergence of the magnetic flux from the depth of the convective zone, and the mutual interaction of the earlier emerging fluxes, or the action of the `local dynamo', giving rise to the new local magnetic field concentrations.     

A search for the optical and near-infrared counterpart of the accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar XTE J1751−305

We have obtained optical and near-infrared images of the field of the accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar XTE J1751−305. There are no stars in the 0.7-arcsec error circle (0.7 arcsec is the overall uncertainty arising from tying the optical and X-ray images and from the intrinsic uncertainty in the Chandra X-ray astrometric solution). We derive limiting magnitudes for the counterpart of   R > 23.1, I > 21.6, Z > 20.6, J > 19.6  and   K > 19.2  . We compare these upper limits with the magnitudes one would expect for simple models for the possible donor stars and the accretion disc subject to the reddening observed in X-rays for XTE J1751−305 and when put at the distance of the Galactic Centre (8.5 kpc). We conclude that our non-detection does not constrain any of the models for the accretion disc or possible donor stars. Deep, near-infrared images obtained during quiescence will, however, constrain possible models for the donor stars in this ultracompact system.     

Sliding fragility of block‐type non‐structural components. Part 1: Unrestrained components

Motivated by the development of performance‐based design guidelines with emphasis on both structural and non‐structural systems, this paper focuses on seismic vulnerability assessment of block‐type unrestrained non‐structural components under sliding response on the basis of seismic inputs specified by current seismic codes. Two sliding‐related failure modes are considered: excessive relative displacement and excessive absolute acceleration. It is shown that an upper bound for the absolute acceleration response can be assessed deterministically, for which a simple yet completely general equation is proposed. In contrast, fragility curves are proposed as an appropriate tool to evaluate the excessive relative displacement failure mode. Sample fragility curves developed through Monte‐Carlo simulations show that fragility estimates obtained without taking into account vertical base accelerations can be significantly unconservative, especially for relatively large values of the coefficient of friction. It is also found that reasonable estimates of relative displacement response at stories other than the ground in multistorey buildings cannot in general be obtained by simply scaling the ground acceleration to the peak acceleration at the corresponding storey. Failure modes considered in this study are found to be essentially independent of each other, a property that greatly simplifies assessment of conditional limit states. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Basin filling evolution of the central basins of Mallorca since the Pliocene

A new compilation of data from 436 drill cores using decompaction and backstripping techniques was used to reconstruct the basin filling history from the Pliocene until the present day in the Palma, Inca and Sa Pobla Basins on the island of Mallorca (Spain). Calcareous rocks dominate the source area and provide a limited amount of clastic input to the basins that has resulted in an average accumulation rate of between 5 and 20 m/Ma during the last 5.3 Ma. Carbonate sediment production dominated the basin filling history during early‐mid Pliocene, but during the Quaternary, the sedimentation processes in the Palma Basin were probably enhanced by an evolution in the drainage network that increased the sediment supply and the accumulated thickness caused by stream capture. However, the maximum sedimentation rate filling the depocentres of the three basins has been decreasing since the Pliocene, showing that not only the catchment transport efficiency but also the relative sea level have been controlling the sediment accumulation in these carbonate basins. The isopach cross‐sections support the idea that a palaeorelief was generated during the Messinian sea level drop and that heterogeneities were filled in from the Pliocene to the Quaternary. We conclude that the central basins of Mallorca were filled heterogeneously due to tectonic and geomorphic processes that controlled sediment transport and production, resulting in different average sedimentation thicknesses that decreased since the Pliocene as the accommodation space became filled and the relative sea level dropped.     

Erosion rates and sediment budgets in vineyards at 1-m resolution based on stock unearthing (Burgundy, France)

A new and simple method is developed to efficiently quantify erosion and deposition rates based on stock unearthing measurements. This is applicable to spatial scales ranging from plot to hillslopes, and to time scales ranging from single hydrologic events to centennial scales. The method is applied to a plot area on vineyard hillslopes in Burgundy (Monthélie, France), with measurement of 4328 vine plants. A sediment budget established at the plot scale shows a mean soil lowering of 3.44 ± 1 cm over 20 years, involving a minimal erosion rate of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm yr^− 1. Locally, erosion rates can reach up to 8.2 ± 0.5 mm yr^− 1.This approach allows the sediment redistribution to be mapped and analyzed at 1-m resolution. It provides novel insights into the characterization of erosion patterns on pluri-decennial scales and into the analysis of spatial distribution of erosion processes on cultivated hillslopes.     

Escaping the climate policy uncertainty trap: options contracts for REDD+

Climate policy uncertainty significantly hinders investments in low-carbon technologies, and the global community is behind schedule to curb carbon emissions. Strong actions will be necessary to limit the increase in global temperatures, and continued delays create risks of escalating climate change damages and future policy costs. These risks are system-wide, long-term and large-scale and thus hard to diversify across firms. Because of its unique scale, cost structure and near-term availability, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has significant potential to help manage climate policy risks and facilitate the transition to lower greenhouse gas emissions. ‘Call’ options contracts in the form of the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits from jurisdictional REDD+ programmes at a predetermined price per ton of CO₂ could help unlock this potential despite the current lack of carbon markets that accept REDD+ for compliance. This approach could provide a globally important cost-containment mechanism and insurance for firms against higher future carbon prices, while channelling finance to avoid deforestation until policy uncertainties decline and carbon markets scale up.

Key policy insights

• Climate policy uncertainty discourages abatement investments, exposing firms to an escalating systemic risk of future rapid increases in emission control expenditures.

• This situation poses a risk of an abatement ‘short squeeze,’ paralleling the case in financial markets when prices jump sharply as investors rush to square accounts on an investment they have sold ‘short’, one they have bet against and promised to repay later in anticipation of falling prices.

• There is likely to be a willingness to pay for mechanisms that hedge the risks of abruptly rising carbon prices, in particular for ‘call’ options, the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits at a predetermined price, due to the significantly lower upfront capital expenditure compared to other hedging alternatives.

• Establishing rules as soon as possible for compliance market acceptance of high-quality emissions reductions credits from REDD+ would facilitate REDD+ transactions, including via options-based contracts, which could help fill the gap of uncertain climate policies in the short and medium term.

     

Determination of the onset dates of the rainy season in central Amazon with equatorially antisymmetric outgoing longwave radiation

The present work provides a new methodology to determine onset dates of the rainy season (ONR) in central Amazon (CAM) using the antisymmetric in relation to the equator outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) (AOLR) data, for the 1979–2006 period. Spatial averages of the AOLR ( $\overline {AOLR} $ ) over the CAM for the ONR periods are obtained. These periods correspond to 25 pentads centered on the mean pentad for the ONR. The sign changes from positive to negative of the $\overline {AOLR} $ for the ONR periods indicate the transition from dry to wet season. Composites of several variables are done for pentads before and after the ONR dates. These composites show physically consistent features. The potential of the $\overline {AOLR} $ time series as an index for monitoring tasks is analyzed. The results here show that the $\overline {AOLR} $ for the ONR period captures the transition from dry to wet conditions in the CAM area during 2006. The advantages of this method are discussed. The new simple method proposed here seems to be efficient in determining the ONR in the CAM.