The MJO and global warming: a study in CCSM4

The change in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitude and variance in response to anthropogenic climate change is assessed in the 1° nominal resolution community climate system model, version 4 (CCSM4), which has a reasonable representation of the MJO characteristics both dynamically and statistically. The twentieth century CCSM4 run is compared with the warmest twenty-first century projection (representative concentration pathway 8.5, or RCP8.5). The last 20 years of each simulation are compared in their MJO characteristics, including spatial variance distributions of winds, precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, histograms of event amplitude, phase and duration, and composite maps of phases. The RCP8.5 run exhibits increased variance in intraseasonal precipitation, larger-amplitude MJO events, stronger MJO rainfall in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and a greater frequency of MJO occurrence for phases corresponding to enhanced rainfall in the Indian Ocean sector. These features are consistent with the concept of an increased magnitude for the hydrological cycle under greenhouse warming conditions. Conversely, the number of active MJO days decreases and fewer weak MJO events occur in the future climate state. These results motivate further study of these changes since tropical rainfall variability plays such an important role in the region’s socio-economic well being.     

Interdecadal changes in the Asian winter monsoon variability and its relationship with ENSO and AO

Interdecadal changes in the Asian winter monsoon (AWM) variability are investigated using three surface air temperature datasets for the 55-year period of 1958–2012 from (1) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis 1 (NCEP), (2) combined datasets from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis and interim data (ERA), and (3) Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA). Particular attention has been paid to the first four empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the AWM temperature variability that together account for 64% of the total variance and have been previously identified as predictable modes. The four modes are characterized as follows: the first mode by a southern warming over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean associated with a gradually increasing basin-wide warming trend; the second mode by northern warming with the interdecadal change after the late 1980s; the third and fourth modes by north-south triple pattern, which reveal a phase shift after the late 1970s. The three reanalyses agree well with each other when producing the first three modes, but show large discrepancy in capturing both spatial and temporal characteristics of the fourth mode. It is therefore considered that the first three leading modes are more reliable than the rest higher modes. Considerable interdecadal changes are found mainly in the first two modes. While the first mode shows gradually decreasing variance, the second mode exhibits larger interannual variance during the recent decade. In addition, after the late 1970s, the first mode has a weakening relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whereas the second mode has strengthening association with the Artic Oscillation (AO). This indicates an increasing role of AO but decreasing role of ENSO on the AWM variability. A better understanding of the interdecadal change in the dominant modes would contribute toward advancing in seasonal prediction and the predictability of the AWM variability.     

Implication of the flow resistance formulae on the prediction of flood wave propagation

ABSTRACT

This study examines the difference in the predictions of flood wave propagation in open channels depending on the flow resistance formulae, such as the Chézy and Manning’s equation. The celerity and diffusion coefficient are functions of the channel geometry, slope, roughness as well as the resistance formulae. The results suggest that substituting the Chézy equation with Manning’s equation results in different characteristics of flood propagation, which are consistent regardless of the cross-sectional geometry except for a circular cross-section: increasing celerity and decreasing diffusion coefficient. The celerity is more sensitive to the selection of resistance formulae than the diffusion coefficient. Geometry has a greater effect on the celerity and diffusion coefficient, and consequently on the resulting hydrographs. Manning’s equation results in a larger difference in celerity and diffusion coefficient compared to Chézy equation regardless of the water depth. Overall, this study shows that the selection of resistance formulae is important in terms of the resulting hydrographs and peak flow.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Routing procedures for observed dispersion coefficients in two-dimensional river mixing

Routing procedures have been used for determining the observed values of the dispersion coefficient in river mixing studies. In order to overcome the shortcomings of the existing routing procedures, we developed a new routing procedure capable of being applied under a transient concentration situation while accounting for river irregularities. The proposed routing procedure is based on the exact solution of the depth-averaged, two-dimensional, mass transport equation combined with the stream-tube concept and was verified through the tracer data acquired from field tests conducted in natural rivers located in Korea. The observed dispersion coefficients evaluated by the routing procedure exhibited a stream-wise variation along the rivers, in that a minimum value was seen in the straight region and a maximum value downstream of the apex of the bend. This variation was attributed to the flow dynamics of secondary currents induced by the meandering of the rivers. The dispersion coefficients obtained by the new method over the reach were in the same range of those calculated by other methods.     

Debris flow in metropolitan area — 2011 Seoul debris flow

A large number of debris flows occurred simultaneously at around 8:30 to 8:50 a.m. on July 27, 2011, at the center of Seoul, Korea. This area is located in the southern part of Seoul and is a densely populated district. As a result of the debris flow event, 16 people were killed, 30 houses were buried, and 116 houses were damaged around Umyeon Mountain, a relatively small mountain with a height of 312.6 m. Since the debris flow event, field investigations on the initiation and transportation zones of debris flows have been carried out. Rainfall data were collected from the automatic weather stations (AWSs) which are operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Video files recorded by residents were also acquired and used to analyze the flow characteristics of the debris flow. Field investigation shows that about 40 debris flows occurred around Umyeon Mountain and most of the debris flows were initiated by small slope failures. The effects of the precipitation that triggered the debris flows were analyzed as well. A landslide hazard map which considers slope gradient and aspect, strength of soil, hazard record, rainfall conditions, and vegetation, was constructed and compared with the initiation zones of debris flows.     

Multifractal characteristics of the jet turbulent intensity depending on the outfall nozzle geometry

The multifractal measure enables an examination of the characteristics of a quantity distributed over a domain. This study examined the multifractal properties of turbulent intensities obtained from jet discharge experiments, where three types of nozzle geometries were examined in terms of the velocity fields and turbulent characteristics using particle image velocimetry. Depending on the nozzle geometry, the experimental results showed that the distribution of turbulent intensities and resulting dilution exhibited different behaviors. The experiment also showed that the transversal velocity profiles are similar to each other regardless of the outfall nozzle shapes and demonstrates the traditional similarity assumption at the same time. The multifractal exponents of the turbulent intensities were obtained with Box Count Method in a two-dimensional space. The results showed that the turbulent intensities obtained in two-dimensional space have a common multifractal spectrum, which was not the case for the velocity or shear stress observed in the same space. Although the transversal velocity profiles are similar, the multifractal exponent clearly shows a difference depending on the outfall geometries. In particular, the minimum value of the Lipschitz–Hölder exponent (α _min) and the entropy dimension (α ₁) tends to increase as turbulent intensity and dilution increase. These results suggest that the multifractal properties can be utilized potentially to categorize and evaluate the discharge outfall capabilities in terms of the resulting dilution.     

LH-moment estimation of a four parameter kappa distribution with hydrologic applications

The study of distribution tails is a fundamental research in statistical frequency analysis relevant to many research fields, such as insurance, hydrological events, earthquake, etc. Here, we describe and investigate the effect and feasibility of the high-order L-moment (LH-moment) method for estimating heavy-tail conditions by fitting a four parameter kappa distribution. Details of parameter estimation using LH-moments for the four parameter kappa distribution (K4D) are described and formulated. Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to illustrate the performance of the LH-moment method in terms of heavy-tail quantiles over all quantiles using K4D and non K4D samples, respectively. The result suggests that the method is either useful (when the method of L-moment estimation fails to give a feasible solution) or as effective as the L-moment approach in handling data following K4D. Applications to the annual maximum flood and sea level data are presented.     

Energy dependence of Ti/Fe ratio in the Galactic cosmic rays measured by the ATIC-2 experiment

Titanium is a rare, secondary nucleus among Galactic cosmic rays. Using the Silicon matrix in the ATIC experiment, Titanium has been separated. The energy dependence of the Ti to Fe flux ratio in the energy region from 5 GeV per nucleon to about 500 GeV per nucleon is presented. The article was translated by the authors.     

Neoproterozoic tectonic evolution of the Hongseong area, southwestern Gyeonggi Massif, South Korea; implication for the tectonic evolution of Northeast Asia

Two types of Neoproterozoic metabasites occur together with regionally intruded arc-related Neoproterozoic granitoids (ca. 850–830 Ma) in the Hongseong area, southwestern Gyeonggi Massif, South Korea, which is the extension of the Dabie–Sulu collision belt in China. The first type of metabasite (the Bibong and Baekdong metabasites) is a MORB-like back-arc basin basalt or gabbro formed at ca. 890–860 Ma. The Bibong and Baekdong metabasites may have formed during back-arc opening by diapiric upwelling of deep asthenospheric mantle which was metasomatized by large ion lithophile element (LILE) enriched melt or fluid derived from the subducted slab and/or subducted sediment beneath the arc axis. The second type of metabasite (the Gwangcheon metabasite) formed in a plume-related intra-continental rift setting at 763.5 ± 18.3 Ma and is geochemically similar to oceanic island basalt (OIB). These data indicate a transition in tectonic setting in the Hongseong area from arc to intra-continental rift between ca. 830 and 760 Ma. This transition is well correlated to the Neoproterozoic transition from arc to intra-continental rift tectonic setting at the margin of the Yangtze Craton and corresponds to the amalgamation and breakup of Rodinia Supercontinent.     

Laboratory Simulation Of Vertical Plume Dispersion Within A Convective Boundary Layer

Mesoscale measurements of the vertical dispersion coefficient ₂ by using a composite turbulence water tank were validated through a comparison with CONDORS (Convective Diffusion Observed with Remote Sensors) field data, and were analysed with respect to the intensity of the thermal flux, mechanical turbulence, and plume release height.It seems possible to correct the plume _z values for different release heights below 0.5z_i (z_i is the mixing height) by applying an equation expressing the height dependency of turbulence intensity. The downwind distance where the plume's mass centre height approaches its final level was also analysed with respect to the above three parameters, and an empirical equation to estimate the downwinddistance derived.