Effects of climate change on forests of the eastern United States

A multi‐phased approach was used to estimate potential impacts of climate change on forests of the eastern United States. Phase I was at community‐level and Phase II examined selected species, both using three 2 x CO₂ climate scenarios. Geographic information systems (GIS) and statistical modeling techniques were used to manipulate and analyze climate and vegetation data, and model vegetation responses to climate change. The first two stages of the study indicated possible large‐scale alteration of forest communities by future climate change. Although results varied among climate models, several trends were apparent. In northern states of the study area, ranges of several conifers declined significantly and ranges of oaks and hickories moved northward. In central states, ranges of sugar maple and tulip poplar became much smaller, with concomitant increases in ranges of southern oaks and loblolly pine. In . southern states, American beech declined and ranges of southern oaks increased northward. This paper discusses results of the first two phases and current progress of the third phase.     

Buoyant boundary layer flows- an analogy to the Ekman spiral

Abstract

Flow details inside the buoyant boundary layer in the heat-up process of a contained, stably stratified, fluid are presented. Numerical solutions were obtained for the heatup problem in a cylinder considered by Sakurai and Matsuda (1972). By plotting the scaled vertical velocity W versus the scaled temperature θ as functions of the normal distance from the sidewall, the precise shape of the buoyant layer spiral is constructed. The analogy between this spiral and the Ekman spiral in rotating fluids is apparent. As the Rayleigh number Ra increases, the magnitude of the scaled vertical velocity increases substantially, but the scaled temperature does not vary appreciably. The buoyant layer thickness is determined by measuring the zero-crossing normal distance for the vertical velocity. The buoyant layer suction increases significantly as Ra increases. The effects of vertical level and of time on the qualitative behavior of buoyant layer flows are found to be small. The buoyant layer flows decay over the heat-up time scale t _n ; t _h characterizes the time span over which the overall adjustment process in the inviscid interior region is accomplished. This work clarifies that the analogy between heat-up and spin-up, which has been known to exist in the main body of inviscid fluid, applies equally well to the boundary layer regions.     

A NUMERICAL EVALUATION OF SOME FLORIDA SPODOSOLS

The POD Index, a numerical index of soil classification developed by Schaetzl and Mokma (1988) in the mesic to cryic temperature regimes of northern North America, was applied to 425 pedons in Florida to test its utility for soils in thermic and hyperthermic temperature regimes. One purpose of the POD Index is to permit approximate classification of Spodosols and similar soils in the field using soil color and morphology (horizonation) alone, without resorting to chemical analysis. In this study, a POD Index threshold value of 7 separated Florida Spodosols from non-Spodosols about 88% of the time. This study, therefore, extends the utility of the POD Index for differentiating Spodosols from non-Spodosols into the hyperthermic temperature regimes. [Key words: soils, spodic horizon, color, hyperthermic temperature regime, thermic temperature regime, POD Index.]     

Climate extreme and its linkage to regional drought over Idaho, USA

To investigate consequences of climate extreme and variability on agriculture and regional water resource, twenty-seven climatic indices of temperature and precipitation over Idaho, USA, were computed. Precipitation, mean temperature and maximum temperature, self-calibrated Palmer Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index for 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month time scales were used to identify spatial and temporal distribution of climatic extreme and variability as well as drought frequency and magnitude. Seven oceanic indices were also used to detect teleconnections between climatic indices and regional droughts. The analyses were conducted for 56 meteorological stations, during 1962?C2008, characterized by a long-term and high-quality data set. The result indicates that decreasing trends and increasing trends are identified for precipitation and temperature, respectively. Consequently, it appears that frost and ice days dwindle as growing season (May?CAugust) length, tropical nights and summer days increase. Given current climate conditions, the results also imply that these trends will continue in the future possibly driven by uncertain climate variability. We anticipate that these indices explained by teleconnections will improve drought-forecasting capability in this region.     

Development and application of a novel miniature in situ microprofiler (NAFRI BelpI)

We have developed a novel miniature in situ microprofiler (NAFRI BelpI) for coastal and deep-sea studies. The BelpI can carry up to three oxygen microsensors, and it allows for simultaneous replicate measurements in a relatively small area. All functions can be controlled and programmed via a small magnetic bar and three reed switches; this feature facilitates the initial setup both onboard and underwater. The large LCD window shows basic information such as the movement intervals of the linear stage, number of replicate measurements, waiting time between measurements, and the pA from the microsensors. From high-resolution vertical profiles of oxygen in coastal sediment measured using the microsensors, the diffusivity boundary layer thicknesses was determined to be in the range 0.30–0.35 mm. In addition, the time-series measurement of oxygen profiles in permeable sandy sediment showed advective transport of oxygen into pore water by tidal agitation. Two examples of in situ measurement using a BelpI suggest that it can be widely applied to the study of the sediment-water interface.     

Microbial Diversity of Deep-sea Sediments from Three Newly Discovered Hydrothermal Vent Fields in the Central Indian Ridge

Since the discovery of hydrothermal vents in the late 1970s, deep-sea hydrothermal vent fields have attracted great attention as biological hotspots. However, compared with other ocean ridges, the structure and function of microbial communities inhabiting vent fields in the Central Indian ridge (CIR) remain understudied. Here, we provide for the first time 16S rRNA gene-based comparative metagenomic analysis of the sediment-associated microbial communities from three newly discovered vent fields in the CIR. Sediment samples collected in the Invent B, Invent E and Onnuri vent fields varied in geochemical properties, elemental concentrations and associated microbial communities. Proteobacteria (Gammaproteobacteria) was the dominant phylum in Invent B and Onnuri vent fields. In contrast, Invent E mainly consisted of Chloroflexi and Euryarchaeota. Predicted functional profiling revealed that the microbial communities in the three vents are dominated by chemoheterotrophic functions. In addition, microbial communities capable of respiration of sulfur compounds, nitrification, nitrite oxidation, methylotrophy, and methanotropy were found to be the main chemolithoautotrophs. Compared to other vent fields, Invent E showed a predominance of archaeal methanogens suggesting it exhibits slightly different geochemistry. Multivariate analysis indicated that the biogeochemical and trace metal differences are reflected in the sediment microbial compositions of the three vent fields. This study expands our current understanding of the microbial community structure and potential ecological functions of the newly discovered hydrothermal vent fields in the CIR.

     

Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon

Long-lead prediction of waxing and waning of the Western North Pacific (WNP)-East Asian (EA) summer monsoon (WNP-EASM) precipitation is a major challenge in seasonal time-scale climate prediction. In this study, deficiencies and potential for predicting the WNP-EASM precipitation and circulation one or two seasons ahead were examined using retrospective forecast data for the 26-year period of 1981–2006 from two operational couple models which are the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the Bureau of Meteorology Research Center (BMRC) Predictive Ocean–Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). While both coupled models have difficulty in predicting summer mean precipitation anomalies over the region of interest, even for a 0-month lead forecast, they are capable of predicting zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa several months ahead and, consequently, satisfactorily predict summer monsoon circulation indices for the EA region (EASMI) and for the WNP region (WNPSMI). It should be noted that the two models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) reaches 0.40 of the correlation skill for the EASMI with a January initial condition and 0.75 for the WNPSMI with a February initial condition. Further analysis indicates that prediction reliability of the EASMI is related not only to the preceding El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but also to simultaneous local SST variability. On other hand, better prediction of the WNPSMI is accompanied by a more realistic simulation of lead–lag relationship between the index and ENSO. It should also be noted that current coupled models have difficulty in capturing the interannual variability component of the WNP-EASM system which is not correlated with typical ENSO variability. To improve the long-lead seasonal prediction of the WNP-EASM precipitation, a statistical postprocessing was developed based on the multiple linear regression method. The method utilizes the MME prediction of the EASMI and WNPSMI as predictors. It is shown that the statistical postprocessing is able to improve forecast skill for the summer mean precipitation over most of the WNP-EASM region at all forecast leads. It is noteworthy that the MME prediction, after applying statistical postprocessing, shows the best anomaly pattern correlation skill for the EASM precipitation at a 4-month lead (February initial condition) and for the WNPSM precipitation at a 5-month lead (January initial condition), indicating its potential for improving long-lead prediction of the monsoon precipitation.     

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m². The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5?×?0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.     

Effect of local atomic disorder on the half-metallicity of full-Heusler Co2FeSi alloy: a first-principles study

This paper investigates the effect of atomic disorder on the electronic structure, magnetism, and half-metallicity of full-Heusler Co₂FeSi alloy by using the full-potential linearized augmented plane wave method within the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) and GGA+U schemes. It considers three types of atomic disorders in Co₂FeSi alloy: the Co--Fe, Co--Si, and Fe--Si disorders. Total energy calculations show that of the three types of disorders, the Fe--Si disorder is more likely to occur. It finds that for the Co--Si disorder, additional states appear in the minority band-gap at the E_F and the half-metallcity is substantially destroyed, regardless of the disorder level. On the other hand, the Co--Fe and Fe--Si disorders have little effect on the half-metallicity at a low disorder level. When increasing the disorder levels, the half-metallcity is destroyed at about 9 % of the Co--Fe disorder level, while that stays at 25 % of the Fe--Si disorder level.