A new scenario framework for climate change research: background,process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O’Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.     

The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies

This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 18 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the importance of individual mitigation options such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Limiting the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration to 450 or 550 ppm CO₂ equivalent by 2100 would require a decarbonization of the global energy system in the 21^st century. Robust characteristics of the energy transformation are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy are found to be most important, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The importance of individual low-carbon electricity technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO₂e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology availability.     

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m². The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5?×?0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.     

Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon

Long-lead prediction of waxing and waning of the Western North Pacific (WNP)-East Asian (EA) summer monsoon (WNP-EASM) precipitation is a major challenge in seasonal time-scale climate prediction. In this study, deficiencies and potential for predicting the WNP-EASM precipitation and circulation one or two seasons ahead were examined using retrospective forecast data for the 26-year period of 1981–2006 from two operational couple models which are the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the Bureau of Meteorology Research Center (BMRC) Predictive Ocean–Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). While both coupled models have difficulty in predicting summer mean precipitation anomalies over the region of interest, even for a 0-month lead forecast, they are capable of predicting zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa several months ahead and, consequently, satisfactorily predict summer monsoon circulation indices for the EA region (EASMI) and for the WNP region (WNPSMI). It should be noted that the two models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) reaches 0.40 of the correlation skill for the EASMI with a January initial condition and 0.75 for the WNPSMI with a February initial condition. Further analysis indicates that prediction reliability of the EASMI is related not only to the preceding El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but also to simultaneous local SST variability. On other hand, better prediction of the WNPSMI is accompanied by a more realistic simulation of lead–lag relationship between the index and ENSO. It should also be noted that current coupled models have difficulty in capturing the interannual variability component of the WNP-EASM system which is not correlated with typical ENSO variability. To improve the long-lead seasonal prediction of the WNP-EASM precipitation, a statistical postprocessing was developed based on the multiple linear regression method. The method utilizes the MME prediction of the EASMI and WNPSMI as predictors. It is shown that the statistical postprocessing is able to improve forecast skill for the summer mean precipitation over most of the WNP-EASM region at all forecast leads. It is noteworthy that the MME prediction, after applying statistical postprocessing, shows the best anomaly pattern correlation skill for the EASM precipitation at a 4-month lead (February initial condition) and for the WNPSM precipitation at a 5-month lead (January initial condition), indicating its potential for improving long-lead prediction of the monsoon precipitation.     

Uncertainty analysis for the integration of seismic and controlled source electro‐magnetic data

We study the appraisal problem for the joint inversion of seismic and controlled source electro‐magnetic (CSEM) data and utilize rock‐physics models to integrate these two disparate data sets. The appraisal problem is solved by adopting a Bayesian model and we incorporate four representative sources of uncertainty. These are uncertainties in 1) seismic wave velocity, 2) electric conductivity, 3) seismic data and 4) CSEM data. The uncertainties in porosity and water saturation are quantified by a posterior random sampling in the model space of porosity and water saturation in a marine one‐dimensional structure. We study the relative contributions from the four individual sources of uncertainty by performing several statistical experiments. The uncertainties in the seismic wave velocity and electric conductivity play a more significant role on the variation of posterior uncertainty than do the seismic and CSEM data noise. The numerical simulations also show that the uncertainty in porosity is most affected by the uncertainty in the seismic wave velocity and that the uncertainty in water saturation is most influenced by the uncertainty in electric conductivity. The framework of the uncertainty analysis presented in this study can be utilized to effectively reduce the uncertainty of the porosity and water saturation derived from the integration of seismic and CSEM data.     

Geotectonic framework of Permo–Triassic magmatism within the Korean Peninsula

This study presents sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) U–Pb zircon ages, and whole-rock chemical and isotopic (Sr-Nd) compositions of representative Triassic plutons from South Korea. The plutons from the Gyeonggi massif (Hongseong, Namyang, Yangpyeong and Odesan), the central Okcheon belt (Baeknok and Yongsan), and the Yeongnam massif (Sangju, Gimcheon, Hamyang and Macheon) yield zircon U–Pb ages of ca. 232–226 Ma, 227–226 Ma, and 240–228 Ma, respectively. Among the Triassic plutonic suite in South Korea, those within the Gyeonggi massif are dominated by granite, syenite, monzonite, monzodiorite and gabbro. Plutons within the Okcheon belt are mainly by granite to quartz monzodiorite. The Yeongnam massif mainly incorporates granite to granodiorite and minor monzodiorite intrusions. The geochemical signatures of the Triassic plutons are characterized by Ta–Nb troughs, depletion of P and Ti, and enrichment of LILE. Most plutons except Macheon monzodioritic pluton show high initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.708248–0.714678) and strongly negative ε_Nd(T) (− 20.3 to − 7.7) values, suggesting contribution from middle to upper crust. In contrast, the Macheon monzodioritic pluton in the Yeongnam massif shows relatively low initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.706547-0.706629) and negative ε_Nd(T) (− 4.43 to − 3.62) values. The Middle Triassic syenite–monzonite–granite–gabbro series in and around the Gyeonggi massif possess high-K calc-alkaline and shoshonitic affinity suggesting a post-collisional magmatic event following the Permo–Triassic collision between the North and South China blocks. The Triassic plutons in the Yeongnam massif and the Okcheon belt, together with a Permian Yeongdeok pluton in the Gyeongsang basin, show features typical of high- to medium-K calc-alkaline magmatism with LREE and LILE enrichments. This together with a depletion of Y and HREE suggests their formation in a subduction setting. Our results provide robust evidence to consider the Gyeonggi massif as an extension of the Qinling–Dabie–Sulu belt between the North and South China blocks in central China. The Okcheon belt and Yeongnam massif in South Korea, together with the continental margin of South China, are marked by a common Permian to Triassic magmatic episode, probably related to the paleo-Pacific slab subduction.     

A Chandra X-ray observation of the globular cluster Terzan 1

We present a ∼19-ks Chandra Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS)-S observation of the globular cluster Terzan 1. 14 sources are detected within 1.4 arcmin of the cluster centre with two of these sources predicted to be not associated with the cluster (background active galactic nuclei or foreground objects). The neutron star X-ray transient, X1732−304, has previously been observed in outburst within this globular cluster with the outburst seen to last for at least 12 yr. Here, we find four sources that are consistent with the ROSAT position for this transient, but none of the sources are fully consistent with the position of a radio source detected with the Very Large Array that is likely associated with the transient. The most likely candidate for the quiescent counterpart of the transient has a relatively soft spectrum and an unabsorbed 0.5–10 keV luminosity of  2.6 × 10³² erg s⁻¹  , quite typical of other quiescent neutron stars. Assuming standard core cooling, from the quiescent flux of this source we predict long (>400 yr) quiescent episodes to allow the neutron star to cool. Alternatively, enhanced core cooling processes are needed to cool down the core. However, if we do not detect the quiescent counterpart of the transient this gives an unabsorbed 0.5–10 keV luminosity upper limit of  8 × 10³¹ erg s⁻¹  . We also discuss other X-ray sources within the globular cluster. From the estimated stellar encounter rate of this cluster we find that the number of sources we detect is significantly higher than expected by the relationship of Pooley et al.     

Seismically induced changes in groundwater levels and temperatures following the ML5.8 (ML5.1) Gyeongju earthquake in South Korea

Hydrogeological responses to earthquakes such as changes in groundwater level, temperature, and chemistry, have been observed for several decades. This study examines behavior associated with M_L 5.8 and M_L 5.1 earthquakes that occurred on 12 September 2016 near Gyeongju, a city located on the southeast coast of the Korean peninsula. The M_L 5.8 event stands as the largest recorded earthquake in South Korea since the advent of modern recording systems. There was considerable damage associated with the earthquakes and many aftershocks. Records from monitoring wells located about 135 km west of the epicenter displayed various patterns of change in both water level and temperature. There were transient-type, step-like-type (up and down), and persistent-type (rise and fall) changes in water levels. The water temperature changes were of transient, shift-change, and tendency-change types. Transient changes in the groundwater level and temperature were particularly well developed in monitoring wells installed along a major boundary fault that bisected the study area. These changes were interpreted as representing an aquifer system deformed by seismic waves. The various patterns in groundwater level and temperature, therefore, suggested that seismic waves impacted the fractured units through the reactivation of fractures, joints, and microcracks, which resulted from a pulse in fluid pressure. This study points to the value of long-term monitoring efforts, which in this case were able to provide detailed information needed to manage the groundwater resources in areas potentially affected by further earthquakes.