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Abstract The lower St Lawrence Estuary is an interesting case amongst estuaries in that it is wide enough to accommodate the development of mesoscale unstable waves and eddies. These features are generated by the runoff‐driven jet along this body's south shore. We present data yielding estimates of the length, time and velocity scales of these unstable disturbances. To relate these quantities to the dynamics we employ a 2‐layer quasigeos‐trophic instability model featuring realistic lateral shear. All model runs show short time and length scales, e‐folding periods of less than 10 days and wavelengths less than 50 km. 相似文献
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Jacques Derome Gilbert Brunet André Plante Normand Gagnon George J. Boer Francis W. Zwiers 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):485-501
Abstract Two dynamical models are used to perform a series of seasonal predictions. One model, referred to as GCM2, was designed as a general circulation model for climate studies, while the second one, SEF, was designed for numerical weather prediction. The seasonal predictions cover the 26‐year period 1969–1994. For each of the four seasons, ensembles of six forecasts are produced with each model, the six runs starting from initial conditions six hours apart. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly for the month prior to the start of the forecast is persisted through the three‐month prediction period, and added to a monthly‐varying climatological SST field. The ensemble‐mean predictions for each of the models are verified independently, and the two ensembles are blended together in two different ways: as a simple average of the two models, denoted GCMSEF, and with weights statistically determined to minimize the mean‐square error (the Best Linear Unbiased Estimate (BLUE) method). The GCMSEF winter and spring predictions show a Pacific/North American (PNA) response to a warm tropical SST anomaly. The temporal anomaly correlation between the zero‐lead GCMSEF mean‐seasonal predictions and observations of the 500‐hPa height field (Z500) shows statistically significant forecast skill over parts of the PNA area for all seasons, but there is a notable seasonal variability in the distribution of the skill. The GCMSEF predictions are more skilful than those of either model in winter, and about as skilful as the better of the two models in the other seasons. The zero‐lead surface air temperature GCMSEF forecasts over Canada are found to be skilful (a) over the west coast in all seasons except fall, (b) over most of Canada in summer, and (c) over Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec in the fall. In winter the skill of the BLUE forecasts is substantially better than that of the GCMSEF predictions, while for the other seasons the difference in skill is not statistically significant. When the Z500 forecasts are averaged over months two and three of the seasons (one‐month lead predictions), they show skill in winter over the north‐eastern Pacific, western Canada and eastern North America, a skill that comes from those years with strong SST anomalies of the El Niño/La Niña type. For the other seasons, predictions averaged over months two and three show little skill in Z500 in the mid‐latitudes. In the tropics, predictive skill is found in Z500 in all seasons when a strong SST anomaly of the El Niño/La Niña type is observed. In the absence of SST anomalies of this type, tropical forecast skill is still found over much of the tropics in months two and three of the northern hemisphere spring and summer, but not in winter and fall. 相似文献
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Jacques Laskar 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1996,64(1-2):115-162
Large scale chaos is present everywhere in the solar system. It plays a major role in the sculpting of the asteroid belt and in the diffusion of comets from the outer region of the solar system. All the inner planets probably experienced large scale chaotic behavior for their obliquities during their history. The Earth obliquity is presently stable only because of the presence of the Moon, and the tilt of Mars undergoes large chaotic variations from 0° to about 60°. On billion years time scale, the orbits of the planets themselves present strong chaotic variations which can lead to the escape of Mercury or collision with Venus in less than 3.5 Gyr. The organization of the planets in the solar system thus seems to be strongly related to this chaotic evolution, reaching at all time a state of marginal stability, that is practical stability on a time-scale comparable to its age.This lecture was given at the XIth International Congress of Mathematical Physics, Paris, july 1994 相似文献
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We calculate the profile and polarization of the Lα line in the solar corona. Coronal temperature variation, solar wind and other non-thermal motions have been taken into account. Because of the relatively low atomic weight of hydrogen the profile of the Lα line is a sensitive indicator of the coronal temperature. The line polarization contains relatively little information except for strong magnetic fields (> 70 G). 相似文献
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Jacques M. Beckers 《Solar physics》1996,169(2):431-442
The development of telescope capabilities tends to go in spurts. These are triggered by the availability of new techniques in optics, mechanics and/or instrumentation. So has nighttime telescope technology developed since the construction in the nineteen-forties of the 5-m Hale telescope, first by the introduction in the sixties of high efficiency electronic detectors, followed recently by the production of large 8- to 10-m mirrors and now by the implementation of adaptive optics. In solar astronomy, major steps were the introduction of the coronagraph by Lyot in the nineteen-thirties and the vacuum telescope concept by Dunn in the sixties. In the last thirty years, telescope developments in solar astronomy have relied primarily on improved instrumental capabilities. As in nighttime astronomy, these instruments and their detectors are reaching their limits set by the quantum nature of light and the telescope diffraction. Larger telescopes are needed to increase sensitivity and angular resolution of the observations. In this paper, I will review recent efforts to increase substantially the telescope capabilities themselves. I will emphasize the concept of a large all-wavelength, coronagraphic telescope (CLEAR) which is presently being developed.Dedicated to Cornelis de Jager 相似文献
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The chemical analysis by EMPEDS of 140 samples in cores from six Red Sea troughs and basins has led to the discovery in the Nereus Deep of high vanadium concentrations (up to 1.3% V2 O3 ) in several bulk samples, and to the isolation of a major magnetite phase. This vanado-magnetite, remarkable for its high content of vanadium (mean = 1.45% V2 O3 ) and its lack of titanium, is frequently zoned, the V-content decreasing toward the outer zones. Oxides with up to 42% V2 O3 , have also been found. Since the origin of the magnetite is clearly authigenic, its high vanadium and low titanium concentrations are traced back to the differential hydrothermal leaching of Fe—Ti-oxides which occur profusely in basic eruptive rock clasts, actually present in some of the overlying seams. 相似文献