过去2000年亚澳夏季风降水百年际变化特征及成因的模拟研究

利用地球系统模式（CESM）开展过去2000 年气候模拟试验,在利用观测资料、再分析资料对模拟资料进行检验的基础上,探讨百年时间尺度上亚澳夏季风降水的时、空变化特征及其成因,对于认识百年尺度气候变化规律、定量区分自然因子和人类活动对亚澳夏季风的影响具有重要意义。结果表明:过去2000 年亚澳夏季风降水和温度的波动较为一致,暖期降水多,冷期降水少。两者相关系数为0.83,达到99%置信度。此外,亚澳夏季风降水存在105、130、180 a的百年尺度周期。亚澳夏季风降水经验正交函数分解第一模态在印度洋北部呈南北反向的分布型态,在东亚地区呈负、正、负的分布型态;第二模态在印度洋北部呈正、负、正的分布型态,在东亚地区呈全区一致型的分布型态。经验正交函数分解第一特征向量和第二特征向量的正、负值中心大多出现在印度洋北部地区,南北呈不对称分布。亚澳夏季风降水的105 a周期主要受火山活动和土地利用/覆盖的影响,130 a周期主要受太阳辐射、气候系统内部变率的影响,180 a周期主要受火山活动的影响。从经验正交函数分解第一特征向量来看,整个亚澳夏季风降水主要受土地利用/覆盖、太阳辐射的影响;第二特征向量表明亚澳夏季风降水在百年际空间变化上主要受太阳辐射和气候系统内部变率的影响;第三特征向量表明亚澳夏季风降水在百年际空间变化上主要受气候系统内部变率和温室气体的影响。该研究对揭示百年际时间尺度气候变化特征、辨识影响气候变化的自然因素与人为因素、理解其影响气候的物理机制等具有重要意义,也为应对该区域气候变化提供了参考依据。      

全球气候变化中的人类活动视角:社会经济情景的演变

社会经济情景的设定是全球气候变化研究的基础,也是气候变化影响评估的关键环节.本文回顾了社会经济情景的发展过程,阐述了共享社会经济路径的主要特点和最新发展趋势,介绍了区域社会经济情景的构建及在灾害风险领域中的应用,最后对共享社会经济路径的发展进行了展望.     

基于田间试验的水稻模型ORYZA2000区域参数比较

利用江苏南京、安徽宣城两地的水稻田间试验数据和气象资料,对ORYZA2000模型基本作物参数进行调整,包括不同发育阶段的发育速率、干物质分配系数、比叶面积等。两试验点的作物营养生长参数(DVRJ)和生殖生长参数(DVRR)差异很大,反应了模型的区域差异性。模拟效果均能准确反应叶面积指数、生物量的动态变化过程,在地上部生物量的模拟准确度最高。两试验点的叶面积指数、地上部生物量、绿叶生物量、茎生物量和穗生物量的归一化均方根NSMSE值分别为9%、19%、18%、13%、25%和16%、25%、17%、19%、24%,因而南京试验点的模拟效果比宣城好,参数更具区域适应性。     

ANNUAL VARIATIONS OF TEMPERATURE ON FOUR URBAN UNDERLYING SURFACES AND FITTING ANALYSIS

Based on the observed 2-year temperature data for four kinds of typical urban underlying surfaces, including asphalt, cement, bare land and grass land, the annual variations and influencing factors of land surface temperature are analyzed. Then fitting equations for surface temperature are established. It is shown that the annual variation of daily average, maximum and minimum temperature and daily temperature range on the four urban underlying surfaces is consistent with the change in air temperature. The difference of temperature on different underlying surfaces in the summer half year (May to October) is much more evident than that in the winter half year (December to the following April). The daily average and maximum temperatures of asphalt, cement, bare land and grass land are higher than air temperature due to the atmospheric heating in the daytime, with that of asphalt being the highest, followed in turn by cement, bare land and grass land. Moreover, the daily average, maximum and minimum temperature on the four urban underlying surfaces are strongly impacted by total cloud amount, daily average relative humidity and sunshine hours. The land surface can be cooled (warmed) by increased total cloud amount (relative humidity). The changes in temperature on bare land and grass land are influenced by both the total cloud amount and the daily average relative humidity. The temperature parameters of the four land surfaces are significantly correlated with daily average, maximum and minimum temperature, sunshine hours, daily average relative humidity and total cloud amount, respectively. The analysis also indicates that the range of fitting parameter of a linear regression equation between the surface temperature of the four kinds of typical land surface and the air temperature is from 0.809 to 0.971, passing the F-test with a confidence level of 0.99.     

The effects of past climate change on the northern limits of maize planting in Northeast China

Northeast China (NEC) is one of the major agricultural production areas in China and also an obvious region of climate warming. We were motivated to investigate the impacts of climate warming on the northern limits of maize planting. Additionally, we wanted to assess how spatial shifts in the cropping system impact the maize yields in NEC. To understand these impacts, we used the daily average air temperature data in 72 weather stations and regional experiment yield data from Jilin Province. Averaged across NEC, the annual air temperature increased by 0.38 °C per decade. The annual accumulated temperature above 10 °C (AAT10) followed a similar trend, increased 66 °C d per decade from 1961 to 2007, which caused a northward expansion of the northern limits of maize. The warming enabled early-maturing maize hybrids to be sown in the northern areas of Heilongjiang Province where it was not suitable for growing maize before the warming. In the southern areas of Heilongjiang Province and the eastern areas of Jilin Province, the early-maturing maize hybrids could be replaced by the middle-maturing hybrids with a longer growing season. The maize in the northern areas of Liaoning Province was expected to change from middle-maturing to late-maturing hybrids. Changing the hybrids led to increase the maize yield. When the early-maturing hybrids were replaced by middle-maturing hybrids in Jilin Province, the maize yields would increase by 9.8 %. Similarly, maize yields would increase by 7.1 % when the middle-maturing hybrids were replaced by late-maturing hybrids.     

地下水NO -3污染的微生物修复实验研究

随着农业的发展,尤其是化肥和农药的超量施用,产生了一系列的环境问题,已危及地下水的质量安全。大量的氮素没有被农作物吸收,经微生物硝化作用后,以硝态氮的形式进入土体和地下水。浅层地下水已普遍受到氮素不同程度的污染。本文以硝态氮污染为例,在实验室探索了硝态氮污染地下水微生物修复的实验方法,通过室内模拟含水层地下水静止条件和流动条件下,利用优选的菌群制剂和少量营养碳源,对试验区高含NO-3地下水的修复试验效果是显著的,去除率可达90%～100%。其作用还是持续的,静止条件下试验进行到256d时,其去除率仍达89 74%;流动条件下试验进行到112d时,试验主孔下游的观测孔3#、4#中的去除率也还有16 22%和27 26%。试验结果为野外现场原位微生物修复提供了技术支撑。     

青河县引种大果沙棘气候条件分析

利用青河县历史气象资料,通过对比分析青河县与大果沙棘原引种区气候条件,指出青河县适宜种植大果沙棘。在归纳分析青河县种植大果沙棘有利和不利的气候条件基础上,提出了相应的气象服务措施。     

新型GPS控制网布设及应用

设计出一种新型GPS控制网,通过与其他类型控制网进行比较分析,获得该新型GPS网的一些特点,并将该新型GPS控制网应用于工程实际中,实践表明:该新型GPS网,无论平面精度还是高程精度都高于设计精度,能够满足多种工程测量需要,值得借鉴。     

江苏北部一次由MCG引发的致洪暴雨综合分析

利用卫星云图、NCEP资料和MICAPS系统提供的实况资料和物理量等,对2008年7月23日江苏北部一次中尺度对流复合体(MCC)和暴雨天气过程进行诊断分析.结果表明:MCC是造成暴雨的直接影响系统;200 hPa中尺度反气旋环流的形成,配合500 hPa西南急流左侧切变线生成以及边界层925 hPa锋生与西南强风带或西南急流左侧中尺度低涡生成,有利于MCC生成和发展;925 hPa以下边界层10.7 m·s-1·km-1强风速垂直切变的形成.配合边界层正涡度中心生成、对流层高层辐散增强,是激发MCC生成和发展的动力机制;850 hPa江苏中北部MPV1≤-0.5 PVU的中尺度对流不稳定中心的生成,配合北方MPV2≥0.6 PVU湿斜压场纬向高值带的生成和稳定,有利于江苏北部地区中尺度强对流系统重复出现和MCC生成发展.     

多媒体触摸屏查询系统的设计与开发

针对陕西省气象局实际,开发基于多媒体查询的应用系统,本文介绍系统设计原则、软硬件开发环境及主要系统功能（基本情况、楼内布局、办事导航、最新公告、气象新闻、天气资讯、气象科普、视频点播）,方便来访者,增加气象政务公开性,是又一指导办事、扩大宣传的新窗口。