ARMA模型在变形监测中的应用

介绍了时间序列分析模型ARMA进行模型识别、参数估计、模型检验和模型预测及其在变形监测数据处理中的应用。并结合某一工程实例,采用该模型对一组实测变形数据进行了分析、预测,取得了较好的数据拟合与预测效果,该模型对变形监测数据处理与预报是十分可靠和可行的,具有很强的实际应用价值。     

Is the long-term variation of the estimated GPS differential code biases associated with ionospheric variability?

The global positioning system (GPS) differential code biases (DCB) provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS) show solar-cycle-like variation during 2002–2013. This study is to examine whether this variation of the GPS DCBs is associated with ionospheric variability. The GPS observations from low earth orbit (LEO) satellites including CHAMP, GRACE and Jason-1 are used to address this issue. The GPS DCBs estimated from the LEO-based observations at different orbit altitudes show a similar tendency as the IGS DCBs. However, this solar-cycle-like dependency is eliminated when the DCBs of 13 continuously operating GPS satellites are constrained to zero-mean. Our results thus revealed that ionospheric variation is not responsible for the long-term variation of the GPS DCBs. Instead, it is attributed to the GPS satellite replacement with different satellite types and the zero-mean condition imposed on all satellite DCBs.     

不动产统一登记信息平台建设探讨

不动产统一登记信息平台的建立是不动产统一登记工作实现信息实时更新和共享的基础。以构建不动产统一登记信息平台为主线,提出了以土地为核心的不动产单元构建方法,构建了以不动产单元为基础的不动产权利登记体系,分析了不动产登记业务与不动产管理其他相关业务的关联。在此基础上,明晰了不动产统一登记信息平台在国土资源信息化总体框架中的定位,以徐州市为例,给出了市(县)级不动产统一登记信息平台建设的主要内容,对当前不动产统一登记信息平台的建设进行了有益的探索。     

泥河湾侯家窑遗址古河流及环境考古意义

侯家窑遗址位于泥河湾盆地西北部,自发现至今,历经40余年,但遗址年代和古人类生存环境问题仍悬而未决。本文基于地质地貌观测、电阻率测深、高程测量等工作,试图通过遗址区地层结构和古河流发育情况研究,阐释上述问题。结果如下:①伴随着泥河湾古湖的快速萎缩,在侯家窑遗址区发育了一条源自北部熊耳山、宽逾1 km的古河流。它形成于240 ka B.P.前,消亡于晚更新世初,发育历史贯穿了侯家窑古人类生存阶段的始终。②遗址古文化遗存不是埋藏在湖相泥河湾层中,而是埋藏于距今约224~161 ka的牛轭湖沉积层和壤化黏土层内,表明古人类在此倚河而居长达6万年。③遗址区面向东南的宽阔圈椅状地形,为古人类生存造就了相对温和舒适的地理环境;古河流既为古人类提供了水源,良好的流域生态环境也给古人类提供了富足的食物;熊耳山既是古河流源地,也是优质石料产地,古河流将石料搬运至遗址附近,石器制作便利。因此,在寒冷气候条件下生活的古人类,选择生境较好的侯家窑遗址区倚河而居势成必然。④遗址区古河流发育在易遭侵蚀的泥河湾湖相沉积层之上,河水泥沙含量高、浑浊,唯有遗址附近的牛轭湖区水流缓滞、清澈,而且植物繁茂,是各类动物优先猎食和饮水的地方。但牛轭湖独特的地貌特点,使动物们在急迫情况下难以逃脱,古人类此地围猎,远较他地成功率高。     

月球典型撞击坑溅射物研究及对月球地质编图的意义

撞击坑是月表最典型的地质单元,其溅射物作为撞击坑的坑外组成部分可分布到距离坑中心10个直径距离之外的区域,因此撞击溅射物也是月球地质编图中最重要的表达要素之一。本文使用月球勘测轨道器(LRO)的激光高度计(LOLA)数据、广角相机(WAC)影像、窄角相机(NAC)影像以及Clementine的UVVIS多光谱数据,研究了哥白尼纪正面月海区直径31km的Kepler撞击坑和背面月陆区直径30km的Necho撞击坑。哥白尼纪撞击坑溅射沉积物可以分为三个相:连续溅射沉积相(CE)、不连续溅射沉积相(DE)和辐射纹(CR)。连续溅射沉积相分布在最大约2.6个半径范围之内,不连续溅射沉积相分布在最大近11个半径范围之内,辐射纹分布在最大近29个半径范围之内。本文强调了多源数据结合在识别撞击坑溅射沉积物中的作用,对Kepler坑和Necho坑溅射沉积物进行了填图,不对称分布的特征表明这两个坑可能形成于倾斜撞击。     

月球东海盆地综合解析与撞击初始条件的研究

东海是月球上最年轻的多环撞击盆地,关于其形成机制的研究很多,但成果大都基于正撞击的机制提出的,虽然有部分学者提出东海是斜撞击的,但缺乏具体撞击参数。本文通过多源数据融合,综合分析LRO影像数据、LOLA地形数据、M~3高光谱数据和IIM高光谱数据,对东海地区的地貌特征、物质成分进行了较为系统的解译,发现在东海中央熔融区存在一条与东海撞击方向垂直的中央隆起区域(中央隆起线),其也是中央熔融区粗糙部分与光滑部分的分界线,结合撞击坑成坑理论,认为其可能是撞击过程冲击波作用引起的堆叠作用形成的。同时利用GRAIL数据及对该地区的重力异常的成因进行了分析,认为异常是由于压强、温度及岩石粘度的改变引起局部莫霍面抬升和中央熔融物的形成而出现的,进而估算出熔融物占盆地内物质的25%,约为1.1×10~6km~3。同时,对GRAIL数据的剖面分析结果也支持了本文的斜撞击理论。最后,综合多方面的信息和撞击理论获取东海盆地构造分布图,并根据中央隆起线、溅射物及线性构造的分布特征等,提出东海盆地理论上是由一直径在50~100km的撞击体以10~30km/s的速度自东偏北约20°~30°方向以20°~30°的角度斜撞击月表而形成的。这可为研究更早期的月球撞击坑提供理论参考。     

天山南麓库车晚新生代褶皱-冲断带

库车褶皱冲断带位于天山南麓,由近东西走向的多条构造带组成。三叠系暗色泥岩、侏罗系煤层、古近系库姆格列木组膏盐层和新近系吉迪克组膏盐层构成库车褶皱冲断带的区域性主滑脱面。褶皱冲断带底面由北向南逐渐抬高。褶皱冲断带主体发育盖层滑脱-冲断构造(薄皮构造),基底卷入型冲断构造(厚皮构造)见于北缘的根带。新生界膏盐层之上构造变形以滑脱褶皱为特色,之下以冲断构造为特色。库车褶皱冲断带是印度-亚洲碰撞远程效应下,(南)天山晚新生代造山过程的产物。褶皱冲断带构造变形的动力来源主要是造山楔向塔里木盆地推进所形成的挤压构造应力。褶皱冲断带构造变形的起始时间为约23Ma,构造变形具有阶段式加速的特点,已经识别出约23Ma、约10Ma、5~2Ma和1~0Ma共4个变形加速期。褶皱冲断带的演化过程为前展式,褶皱冲断带前锋向南推进的同时,后缘持续变形。     

The Exhumation History of North Qaidam Thrust Belt Constrained by Apatite Fission Track Thermochronology: Implication for the Evolution of the Tibetan Plateau

Determining the spatio-temporal distribution of the deformation tied to the India-Eurasian convergence and the impact of pre-existing weaknesses on the Cenozoic crustal deformation is significant for understanding how the convergence between India and Eurasia contributed to the development of the Tibetan Plateau. The exhumation history of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau was addressed in this research using a new apatite fission track (AFT) study in the North Qaidam thrust belt (NQTB). Three granite samples collected from the Qaidam Shan pluton in the north tied to the Qaidam Shan thrust, with AFT ages clustering in the Eocene to Miocene. The other thirteen samples obtained from the Luliang Shan and Yuka plutons in the south related to the Luliang Shan thrust and they have showed predominantly the Cretaceous AFT ages. Related thermal history modeling based on grain ages and track lengths indicates rapid cooling events during the Eocene-early Oligocene and since late Miocene within the Qaidam Shan, in contrast to those in the Cretaceous and since the Oligocene-Miocene in the Luliang Shan and Yuka region. The results, combined with published the Cretaceous thermochronological ages in the Qaidam Shan region, suggest that the NQTB had undergo rapid exhumation during the accretions along the southern Asian Andean-type margin prior to the India-Eurasian collision. The Cenozoic deformation initially took place in the North Qaidam thrust belt by the Eocene, which is consistent with the recent claim that the deformation of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau initiated in the Eocene as a response to continental collision between India and Eurasia. The immediate deformation responding to the collision is tentatively attributed to the pre-existing weaknesses of the lithosphere, and therefore the deformation of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau should be regarded as a boundary-condition-dependent process.     

Status of Stratigraphy Research in China

Scientific research and productive practice for earth history are inseparable from the accurate stratigraphic framework and time framework. Establishing the globally unified, precise and reliable chronostratigraphic series and geological time series is the major goal of the International Commission on Stratigraphy(ICS). Under the leadership of the ICS, the countries around the world have carried out research on the Global Standard Stratotype-section and Points(GSSPs) for the boundaries of chronostratigraphic systems. In the current International Chronostratigraphic Chart(ICC), 65 GSSPs have been erected in the Phanerozoic Eonothem, and one has yet been erected in the Precambrian Eonothem. Based on the progress of research on stratigraphy especially that from its subcommissions, the ICS is constantly revising the ICC, and will publish a new International Stratigraphic Guide in 2020. After continual efforts and broad international cooperation of Chinese stratigraphers, 10 GSSPs within the Phanerozoic Eonothem have been approved and ratified to erect in China by the ICS and IUGS. To establish the standards for stratigraphic division and correlation of China, with the support from the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the China Geological Survey, Chinese stratigraphers have carried out research on the establishment of Stages in China. A total of 102 stages have been defined in the "Regional Chronostratigraphic Chart of China(geologic time)", in which 59 stages were studied in depth. In 2014, the "Stratigraphic Chart of China" was compiled, with the essential contents as follows: the correlation between international chronostratigraphy and regional chronostratigraphy of China(geologic time), the distributive status of lithostratigraphy, the characteristics of geological ages, the biostratigraphic sequence, the magnetostratigraphy, the geological events and eustatic sea-level change during every geological stage. The "Stratigraphical Guide of China and its Explanation(2014)" was also published. Chinese stratigraphers have paid much attention to stratigraphic research in south China, northeast China, north China and northwest China and they have made great achievements in special research on stratigraphy, based on the 1:1000000, 1:250000, 1:200000 and 1:50000 regional geological survey projects. Manifold new stratigraphic units were discovered and established by the regional geological surveys, which are helpful to improve the regional chronostratigraphic series of China. On the strength of the investigation in coastal and offshore areas, the status of marine strata in China has been expounded. According to the developing situation of international stratigraphy and the characteristics of Chinese stratigraphic work, the contrast relation between regional stratigraphic units of China and GSSPs will be established in the future, which will improve the application value of GSSPs and the standard of regional stratigraphic division and correlation. In addition, the study of stratigraphy of the Precambrian, terrestrial basins and orogenic belts will be strengthened, the Stratigraphic Chart of China will be improved, the typical stratigraphic sections in China will be protected and the applied study of stratigraphy in the fields of oil and gas, solid minerals, etc. will be promoted. On the ground of these actions, stratigraphic research will continue to play a great role in the social and economic development of China.