A pockmark field in the Patras Gulf (Greece) and its activation during the 14/7/93 seismic event

During a recent oceanographical-geophysical survey carried out in the southeastern part of the Gulf of Patras in Western Greece for the construction of an outfall, an active pockmark field was found. The pockmark field was formed in soft layered Holocene silts. The pockmarks are associated with acoustic anomalies attributed to gas-charged sediments. The pockmarks vary in size and shape from 25 to 250 m in diameter and from 0.5 to 15 m in depth and are among the largest and deepest observed in the world.

On July 14th, 1993, during the survey, a major earthquake of magnitude 5.4 on the Richter scale occurred in the area. During the 24 hour period prior to the earthquake the bottom water temperature anomalously increased on three occasions, whilst for a few days after the earthquake it was noted that the majority of the pockmarks were venting gas bublles.

It is considered that the three abrupt sea-water temperature increases were probably the result of upward migrating high-temperature gas bubbles in the water column. It is further suggested that the earthquake was the triggering mechanism and that the gas expulsion was caused by the reduction in the pore volume in the sediments resulting from changes in the stress regime prior to the earthquake. Therefore, it can be suggested that in seismic areas adjacent to pockmark fields, earthquake prediction may be achieved by monitoring the water temperature and/or the rate of gas venting in the pockmark field.

Our analysis indicates that the pockmark field in the Patras Gulf has formed slowly during the Holocene by continuous gas venting, which is periodically being interrupted by short-duration events of enhanced gas seepage triggered by earthquakes.     

A sedimentary record of the rise and fall of the metal industry in Bergslagen,south central Sweden

Detailed stratigraphic analyses of sediments deposited in Lake Botjärnen, a small boreal forest lake in the shield terrain of central Sweden, clearly reflect progressively increasing human impact on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems following settlement and establishment of an iron industry in the 17th century. Rising frequencies of pollen and spores from light-demanding plants provide evidence of extensive forest clearance for charcoal and timber production, which peaked in the early 20th century. An associated increase in catchment erosion is reflected by changing carbon and nitrogen elemental content and carbon–isotope composition of sediment organic matter and by increased magnetic susceptibility of the sediments. Records of air-borne pollutants (lead, zinc and sulphur) can be correlated to the development of local and regional mining and metal industry as inferred from historical accounts. Rapid recession of the iron industry led to re-forestation and recovery of the aquatic nutrient status to pre-industrial conditions over the past 100 years. The chronology of the sediment succession, which is based on ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs radionuclide data in combination with radiocarbon dating, is confirmed by historical lead pollution trends established for the region.     

Response of a porous seabed around breakwater heads

The evaluation of wave-induced pore pressures and effective stresses in a porous seabed near a breakwater head is important for coastal engineers involved in the design of marine structures. Most previous studies have been limited to two-dimensional (2D) or three-dimensional (3D) cases in front of a breakwater. In this study, we focus on the problem near breakwater heads that consists of incident, reflected and diffracted waves. Both wave-induced oscillatory and residual liquefactions will be considered in our new models. The mistake in the previous work [Jeng, D.-S., 1996. Wave-induced liquefaction potential at the tip of a breakwater. Applied Ocean Research 18(5), 229–241] for oscillatory mechanism is corrected, while a new 3D boundary value problem describing residual mechanism is established. A parametric study is conducted to investigate the influences of several wave and soil parameters on wave-induced oscillatory and residual liquefactions around breakwater heads.     

School vulnerability to disaster: examination of school closure,demographic, and exposure factors in Hurricane Ike’s wind swath

Damage and destruction to schools from climate-related disasters can have significant and lasting impacts on curriculum and educational programs, educational attainment, and future income-earning potential of affected students. As such, assessing the potential impact of hazards is crucial to the ability of individuals, households, and communities to respond to natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises. Yet, few studies have focused on assessing the vulnerability of schools in coastal regions of the USA. Using Hurricane Ike’s tropical storm wind swath in the State of Texas as our study area, we: (1) assessed the spatial distribution patterns of school closures and (2) tested the relationship between school closure and vulnerability factors (namely physical exposure and school demographics) using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The regression results show that higher probabilities of hurricane strikes, more urbanized school districts, and school districts located in coastal counties on the right side of Ike’s path have significant positive associations with an increase in the number of school closure days. Socioeconomic characteristics were not significantly associated with the number of days closed, with the exception of proportion of Hispanic youth in schools, a result which is not supported by the social vulnerability literature. At a practical level, understanding how hurricanes may adversely impact schools is important for developing appropriate preparedness, mitigation, recovery, and adaptation strategies. For example, school districts on the right side of the hurricane track can plan in advance for potential damage and destruction. The ability of a community to respond to future natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises depends in part on mitigating these adverse effects.     

Silica depleted melting of pelites. Petrogenetic grid and application to the Susqueda Aureole, Spain

Metapelitic rocks in the low pressure contact metamorphic aureole around the Susqueda igneous complex, Spain show a number of features that make them an ideal testing ground for the modelling of silica‐undersaturated melting. Rocks in the aureole experienced localized depletion in silica by the segregation of quartz veins during a pre‐anatectic, regional cordierite‐andalusite grade metamorphic event. These rocks were then intruded by gabbroic to dioritic rocks of the Susqueda igneous complex that formed a migmatitic contact metamorphic aureole in the country rocks. This migmatisation event caused quartz‐saturated hornfels and restite formation in rocks that had experienced no quartz vein segregation in the previous regional metamorphic event, but silica‐undersaturated melting in those rocks that were previously depleted in silica. Silica‐undersaturated melting is investigated using a new petrogenetic P–T projection and equilibrium pseudosections calculated in the KFMASH and NCKFMASH systems, respectively. The grid considers quartz absent equilibria and a range of phases that form typically in silica‐undersaturated bulk compositions, for example corundum. It is shown that the quartz‐rich precursors in the Susqueda contact aureole produced about 10% melt during contact metamorphism. However, most of this melt was extracted leaving behind rocks with restitic bulk compositions and minor leucosome segregation. It is suggested that the melt mixed with the host igneous rocks causing an apparent magmatic zoning from diorite in the centre of the complex to tonalite at the margins. In contrast, the quartz‐poor precursors (from which the quartz veins segregated) melted in the silica‐undersaturated field producing a range of assemblages including peritectic corundum and spinel. Melting of the silica‐undersaturated rocks produced only negligible melt and no subsequent melt loss.     

Al,Si ordering in cordierite using “magic angle spinning” NMR

A method of determining the number of Al-O-Al bonds per unit cell from ²⁹Si nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) data of synthetic cordierites with increasing Si, Al order is described. The number of Al-O-Al bonds is found to vary linearly with the logarithm of the annealing time. This may be correlated with previously published heat of solution data on similar samples (Carpenter et al. 1983) to determine the enthalpy change Δh, associated with a single Al?Si interchange in cordierite. Δh is found to be 8.1 kcal/mole. The NMR data show that the short range Al, Si order cannot be described in terms of twin domains of ordered orthorhombic cordierite. An ordering model derived from group theoretical constraints on possible Al, Si distributions within the hexagonal symmetry of the cordierite is found to provide a better fit to the NMR data.     

Coupled changes in sand grain size and sand transport driven by changes in the upstream supply of sand in the Colorado River: Relative importance of changes in bed-sand grain size and bed-sand area

Sand transport in the Colorado River in Marble and Grand canyons was naturally limited by the upstream supply of sand. Prior to the 1963 closure of Glen Canyon Dam, the river exhibited the following four effects of sand supply limitation: (1) hysteresis in sediment concentration, (2) hysteresis in sediment grain size coupled to the hysteresis in sediment concentration, (3) production of inversely graded flood deposits, and (4) development or modification of a lag between the time of a flood peak and the time of either maximum or minimum (depending on reach geometry) bed elevation. Construction and operation of the dam has enhanced the degree to which the first two of these four effects are evident, and has not affected the degree to which the last two effects of sand supply limitation are evident in the Colorado River in Marble and Grand canyons. The first three of the effects involve coupled changes in suspended-sand concentration and grain size that are controlled by changes in the upstream supply of sand. During tributary floods, sand on the bed of the Colorado River fines; this causes the suspended sand to fine and the suspended-sand concentration to increase, even when the discharge of water remains constant. Subsequently, the bed is winnowed of finer sand, the suspended sand coarsens, and the suspended-sand concentration decreases independently of discharge. Also associated with these changes in sand supply are changes in the fraction of the bed that is covered by sand. Thus, suspended-sand concentration in the Colorado River is likely regulated by both changes in the bed-sand grain size and changes in the bed-sand area. A physically based flow and suspended-sediment transport model is developed, tested, and applied to data from the Colorado River to evaluate the relative importance of changes in the bed-sand grain size and changes in the bed-sand area in regulating suspended-sand concentration. Although the model was developed using approximations for steady, uniform flow, and other simplifications that are not met in the Colorado River, the results nevertheless support the idea that changes in bed-sand grain size are much more important than changes in bed-sand area in regulating the concentration of suspended sand.     

Multiseason evaluation of the MM5, COAMPS and WRF over southeast United States

Three models, MM5, COAMPS, and WRF, have been applied for the warm season in 2003 and the cool season in 2003?C2004 to evaluate their performances. All models run over the same domain area covering the north Gulf Mexico and southeastern United States (US) region with the same spatial resolution of 27?km. It was found that the temporal variations of the mean error distribution and strength at 24 and 36?h were rather weak for surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed for all models. A warm bias in surface temperature forecasts dominated over land during the warm season, whereas a cool bias existed during the cool season. The MM5 and WRF produced negative biases of sea level pressure during the warm season and positive biases during the cool season while the COAMPS yielded a similar distribution of sea level pressure biases during both seasons. During both seasons, similar surface wind speed biases produced by each model included a high wind speed forecast over most areas by MM5 while the COAMPS and WRF yielded weak surface winds over the western Plains and stronger surface winds over the eastern Plains. Root-mean-squared errors revealed that the forecast of surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed were degraded with the increase of forecast time. For rainfall evaluation, it was found that the MM5 underpredicted seasonal precipitation while the COAMPS and WRF overpredicted. The bias scores revealed that the MM5 yielded an underprediction of the coverage of precipitation areas, especially for heavier rainfall events. The MM5 presented the lower threat score at lighter rainfall events compared to the COAMPS and WRF. For moderate and heavier thresholds, all models lacked forecast accuracy. The WRF accuracy in predicting precipitation was heavily dependent upon the performance of the selected cumulus parameterization scheme. Use of the Grell?CDevenyi and Bette?CMiller?CJanjic schemes helps suppress precipitation overprediction.