Modeling the risk of spread and establishment for Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Massachusetts from 2008-2009

Land managers responsible for invasive species removal in the USA require tools to prevent the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) (ALB) from decimating the maple-dominant hardwood forests of Massachusetts and New England. Species distribution models (SDMs) and spread models have been applied individually to predict the invasion distribution and rate of spread, but the combination of both models can increase the accuracy of predictions of species spread over time when habitat suitability is heterogeneous across landscapes. First, a SDM was fit to 2008 ALB presence-only locations. Then, a stratified spread model was generated to measure the probability of spread due to natural and human causes. Finally, the SDM and spread models were combined to evaluate the risk of ALB spread in Central Massachusetts in 2008–2009. The SDM predicted many urban locations in Central Massachusetts as having suitable environments for species establishment. The combined model shows the greatest risk of spread and establishment in suitable locations immediately surrounding the epicentre of the ALB outbreak in Northern Worcester with lower risk areas in suitable locations only accessible through long-range dispersal from access to human transportation networks. The risk map achieved an accuracy of 67% using 2009 ALB locations for model validation. This model framework can effectively provide risk managers with valuable information concerning the timing and spatial extent of spread/establishment risk of ALB and potential strategies needed for effective future risk management efforts.     

Temporal replication of the national land cover database using active machine learning

Regional and national level land cover datasets, such as the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) in the United States, have become an important resource in physical and social science research. Updates to the NLCD have been conducted every 5 years since 2001; however, the procedure for producing a new release is labor-intensive and time-consuming, taking 3 or 4 years to complete. Furthermore, in most countries very few, if any, such releases exist, and thus there is high demand for efficient production of land cover data at different points in time. In this paper, an active machine learning framework for temporal updating (or backcasting) of land cover data is proposed and tested for three study sites covered by the NLCD. The approach employs a maximum entropy classifier to extract information from one Landsat image using the NLCD, and then replicate the classification on a Landsat image for the same geographic extent from a different point in time to create land cover data of similar quality. Results show that this framework can effectively replicate the land cover database in the temporal domain with similar levels of overall and within class agreement when compared against high resolution reference land cover datasets. These results demonstrate that the land cover information encapsulated in the NLCD can effectively be extracted using solely Landsat imagery for replication purposes. The algorithm is fully automated and scalable for applications at landscape and regional scales for multiple points in time.     

Student Learning in an Introductory GIS Course: Using a Project‐Based Approach

Introductory courses in Geographic Information Science (GIS) expose students to the concepts and practices necessary for future academic and professional use of GIS tools. Traditional GIS courses balance lectures in the theories of GIS with pre‐built and pre‐packaged lab activities to learn the practices of GIS. This article presents a case study of an experimental introductory course in which students conducted novel, independent project‐based group research under the supervision of graduate or advanced undergraduate students enrolled in the course, culminating in a class presentation and publication quality paper. Surveys and interviews indicated that students reacted more positively to project‐based group research than to traditional activities. Students felt the projects better prepared them for ‘real world’ applications of GIS, and recommend project‐based group research in other GIS coursework. Additionally, our findings indicate that students appreciate interactions with peers of varying skill levels and experiences, as these broaden their capabilities to work with other GIS users.     

Air photo approach to inventory of urban land use in central area case study — Kanpur

The case study of Kanpur demonstrates the use of air photo approach to collect physical data, mainly landuse in central area. The study reveals that very less percentage of vacant land exists in central area for future development. Though this area consist CBD, even then commercial landuse accounts to be only 10% of total area. Selective landuse inventory analysis was carried out for the landuse categories, commercial, industrial and vacant. Reliability of aerial photo-interpretation of over all landuse map found to be 91–95% and each sub-class of landuse reliability for omission and commission error found to be within limits for planning and design purpose.     

Surface gravitational field and topography changes induced by the Earth’s fluid core motions

Using a Love number formalism, the elastic deformations of the mantle and the mass redistribution gravitational potential within the Earth induced by the fluid pressure acting at the core–mantle boundary (CMB) are computed. This pressure field changes at a decadal time scale and may be estimated from observations of the surface magnetic field and its secular variation. First, using a spherical harmonic expansion, the poloidal and toroidal part of the fluid velocity field at the CMB for the last 40 years is computed, under the hypothesis of tangential geostrophy. Then the associated geostrophic pressure, whose order of magnitude is about 1000 Pa, is computed. The surface topography induced by this pressure field is computed using Love numbers, and is a few millimetres. The mass redistribution gravitational potential induced by these deformations and, in particular, the zonal components of the related surface gravitational potential perturbation (J₂, J₃ and J₄ coefficients), are calculated. Overall perturbations for the J₂ coefficient of about 10^–10, for J₃ of about 10^–11 and for J₄ are found of about 0.3×10^–11. Finally, these theoretical results are compared with recent observations of the decadal variation of J₂ from satellite laser ranging. Results concerning J₂ can be described as follows: first, they are one order of magnitude too small to explain the observed decadal variation of J₂ and, second, they show a significant linear trend over the last 40 years, whose rate of decrease amounts to 7% of the observed value.     

Modeling preferential flow in reactive barriers: implications for performance and design

Reactive barriers are passive and in situ ground water treatment systems. Heterogeneities in hydraulic conductivity (K) within the aquifer-reactive barrier system will result in higher flux rates, and reduced residence times, through portions of the barrier. These spatial variations in residence time will affect the treatment capacity of the barrier. A numerical flow model was used to evaluate the effects of spatial variations in K on preferential flow through barriers. The simulations indicate that the impact of heterogeneities in K will be a function of their location and distribution; the more localized the high K zone, the greater the preferential flow. The geometry of the reactive barrier will also strongly influence flow distribution. Aquifer heterogeneities will produce greater preferential flow in thinner barriers compared to thicker barriers. If the barrier K is heterogeneous, greater preferential flow will occur in thicker barriers. The K of the barrier will affect the flow distribution; decreasing the K of the barrier can result in more even distribution of flow. Results indicate that less variable flow will be attained utilizing thicker, homogeneous barriers. The addition of homogeneous zones to thinner barriers will be effective at redistributing flow only if installed immediately adjacent to both the up- and downgradient faces of the barrier.     

Uncertainties in modelling future hydrological change over West Africa

The aim of this paper is to evaluate current knowledge and uncertainties associated with the impact of increasing greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations on the West African monsoon. For this purpose, coupled and time-slice simulations are used. A global measure of the monsoon changes is defined in order to avoid regional biases and to try and obtain significant results. The position and width of the monsoon in latitude are the main focuses. There is almost no agreement between the Coupled General Circulation models from the Coupled models Inter-Comparison project—Phase II in regard to the impact of climate change on the monsoon. Moreover, very simple discriminations between the models seem inappropriate to get a better signal. The role of the different forcings in time-slice simulations is then investigated. The sea surface temperature (SST) and particularly the pattern of the SST are shown to be the most important forcing. This accounts for the diversity of the results either from the coupled or the forced simulations with different SST changes. With a fixed SST, but of a smaller magnitude in AMJ, there are still uncertainties, coming first from the Atmospheric General Circulation models and the way they balance greenhouse gas and global SST increase. Finally the uncertainty due to the Land Surface models (LSMs) is not negligible. The greenhouse gas and the LSMs are shown to have more impact in August, when the monsoon is at its highest latitude on the continent.     

Palaeomagnetism of Holocene lake sediments from north Poland

Summary. Detailed palaeomagnetic investigations of 17 cores of Holocene lake sediments from four lakes in Poland show a pattern of declination variations similar to those found in Lake Windermere, England and in addition a well defined pattern of inclination variations. A total of nine inclination swings are observed compared to five declination swings and their phase relationships are such that both sets of swings cannot be periodic. Exact dating of the palaeomagnetic record is not possible as radiocarbon ages are over 1000 yr older than those deduced from palynological studies. Thermomagnetic and X-ray studies on magnetic concentrates confirm the results of studies of remanence cooling, IRM acquisition and coercivity experiments which are consistent with fine grained magnetite as the main magnetic mineral in the sediments.