Numerical Coincidences and `Tuning' in Cosmology

Fred Hoyle famously drew attention to the significance of apparent coincidences in the energy levels of the carbon and oxygen nucleus. This paper addresses the possible implications of other coincidences in cosmology. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Mid-term quasi-periodicities in geomagnetic activity during the last 15 solar cycles: Connection to solar dynamo strength – To the memory of Karolen I. Paularena (1957-2001)

Several recent studies have reported quasi-periodicities with a period between 1 and 2 years (to be called here `mid-term quasi-periodicities') in various heliospheric parameters, like solar wind speed, interplanetary magnetic field, cosmic rays, and geomagnetic activity. Here we study their long-term occurrence in geomagnetic activity using an extended aa index which covers the last 15 solar cycles. We confirm their intermittent occurrence and the alternation of their dominant period between a slightly shorter period of about 1.2–1.4 years and a slightly longer period of about 1.5–1.7 years. We find that the mid-term quasi-periodicities were strong during two intervals of high solar activity: in the mid-19th century and since 1930. Instead, contrary to earlier studies, we find that they were consistently weak during low solar activity from 1860s to 1920s. This implies a long-term connection between the amplitude of mid-term quasi-periodicities and the solar dynamo strength. Since the rotation speed at the bottom of the solar convection layer (tachocline) has recently been found to vary at a mid-term periodicity, this suggests that the stronger the solar dynamo is, the more variable the rotation rate of the tachocline is. We also note that the disappearance of mid-term periodicities may be used as a precursor for long intervals of very weak solar activity, like great minima.     

Gamma-ray bursts: optical afterglows in the deep Newtonian phase

Gamma-ray burst remnants become trans-relativistic typically in days to tens of days, and they enter the deep Newtonian phase in tens of days to months, during which the majority of shock-accelerated electrons will no longer be highly relativistic. However, a small portion of electrons are still accelerated to ultra-relativistic speeds and are capable of emitting synchrotron radiation. The distribution function for electrons is re-derived here so that synchrotron emission from these relativistic electrons can be calculated. Based on the revised model, optical afterglows from both isotropic fireballs and highly collimated jets are studied numerically, and compared to analytical results. In the beamed cases, it is found that, in addition to the steepening due to the edge effect and the lateral expansion effect, the light curves are universally characterized by a flattening during the deep Newtonian phase.     

Estimation of snow water equivalent using microwave radiometry over Arctic first‐year sea ice

The magnitude and spatial distribution of snow on sea ice are both integral components of the ocean–sea‐ice–atmosphere system. Although there exists a number of algorithms to estimate the snow water equivalent (SWE) on terrestrial surfaces, to date there is no precise method to estimate SWE on sea ice. Physical snow properties and in situ microwave radiometry at 19, 37 and 85 GHz, V and H polarization were collected for a 10‐day period over 20 first‐year sea ice sites. We present and compare the in situ physical, electrical and microwave emission properties of snow over smooth Arctic first‐year sea ice for 19 of the 20 sites sampled. Physical processes creating the observed vertical patterns in the physical and electrical properties are discussed. An algorithm is then developed from the relationship between the SWE and the brightness temperature measured at 37 GHz (55°) H polarization and the air temperature. The multiple regression between these variables is able to account for over 90% of the variability in the measured SWE. This algorithm is validated with a small in situ data set collected during the 1999 field experiment. We then compare our data against the NASA snow thickness algorithm, designed as part of the NASA Earth Enterprise Program. The results indicated a lack of agreement between the NASA algorithm and the algorithm developed here. This lack of agreement is attributed to differences in scale between the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and surface radiometers and to differences in the Antarctic versus Arctic snow physical and electrical properties. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Himalayan magmatism and porphyry copper–molybdenum mineralization in the Yulong ore belt, East Tibet

Summary ?The NW–SE-trending Yulong porphyry Cu–Mo ore belt, situated in the Sanjiang0 area of eastern Tibet, is approximately 400 km long and 35 to 70 km wide. Complex tectonic and magmatic processes during the Himalayan epoch have given rise to favorable conditions for porphyry-type Cu–Mo mineralization. Porphyry masses of the Himalayan epoch in the Yulong ore belt are distributed in groups along regional NW–SE striking tectonic lineaments. They were emplaced mainly into Triassic and Lower Permian sedimentary-volcanic rocks. K–Ar und U–Pb isotopic datings give an intrusion age range of 57–26 Ma. The porphyries are mainly of biotite monzogranitic and biotite syenogranitic compositions. Geological and geochemical data indicate that the various porphyritic intrusions in the belt had a common or similar magma source, are metaluminous to peraluminous, Nb–Y–Ba-depleted, I-type granitoids, and belong to the high-K calc-alkaline series. Within the Yulong subvolcanic belt a number of porphyry stocks bear typical porphyry type Cu–Mo alteration and mineralization. The most prominent porphyry Co–Mo deposits include Yulong, Malasongduo, Duoxiasongduo, Mangzong and Zhanaga, of which Yulong is one of the largest porphyry Cu (Mo) deposits in China with approximately 8 × 10⁶ tons of contained Cu metal. Hydrothermal alteration at Yulong developed around a biotite–monzogranitic porphyry stock that was emplaced within Upper Triassic limestone, siltstone and mudstone. The earliest alteration was due to the effects of contact metamorphism of the country rocks and alkali metasomatism (potassic alteration) within and around the porphyry body. The alteration of this stage was accompanied by a small amount of disseminated and veinlet Cu–Mo sulfide mineralization. Later alteration–mineralization zones form more or less concentric shells around the potassic zone, around which are distributed a phyllic or quartz–sericite–pyrite zone, a silicification and argillic zone, and a propylitic zone. Fluid inclusion data indicate that three types of fluids were involved in the alteration–mineralization processes: (1) early high temperature (660–420 °C) and high salinity (30–51 wt% NaCl equiv) fluids responsible for the potassic alteration and the earliest disseminated and/or veinlet Cu–Mo sulfide mineralization; (2) intermediate unmixed fluids corresponding to phyllic alteration and most Cu–Mo sulfide mineralization, with salinities of 30–50 wt% NaCl equiv and homogenization temperatures of 460–280 °C; and (3) late low to moderate temperature (300–160 °C) and low salinity (6–13 wt% NaCl equiv) fluids responsible for argillic and propylitic alteration. Hydrogen and oxygen isotopic studies show that the early hydrothermal fluids are of magmatic origin and were succeeded by increasing amounts of meteoric-derived convective waters. Sulfur isotopes also indicate a magmatic source for the sulfur in the early sulfide mineralization, with the increasing addition of sedimentary sulfur outward from the porphyry stock. Received August 29, 2001; revised version accepted May 1, 2002 Published online: November 29, 2002     

F stars, metallicity and the ages of red galaxies at z > 1

We explore whether the rest-frame near-ultraviolet spectral region, observable in high-redshift galaxies via optical spectroscopy, contains sufficient information to allow the degeneracy between age and metallicity to be lifted. We do this by first testing the ability of evolutionary synthesis models to reclaim the correct metallicity when fitted to the near-ultraviolet spectra of F stars of known (subsolar and supersolar) metallicity. F stars are of particular interest because the rest-frame near-ultraviolet spectra of the oldest known elliptical galaxies at   z > 1  appear to be dominated by F stars near to the main-sequence turn-off.
We find that, in the case of the F stars, where the Hubble Space Telescope ultraviolet spectra have a high signal-to-noise ratio, fitting models in which the metallicity is allowed to vary as a free parameter is rather successful at deriving the correct metallicity. As a result, the estimated turn-off ages of these stars yielded by model-fitting are well constrained. Encouraged by this we have fitted these same variable-metallicity models to the deep, optical spectra of the   z ≃ 1.5 mJy  radio galaxies 53W091 and 53W069 obtained with the Keck telescope. While the age and metallicity are not so easily constrained for these galaxies, we find that even when metallicity is allowed as a free parameter, the best estimates of their ages are still ≥3 Gyr, with ages younger than 2 Gyr now strongly excluded. Furthermore, we find that a search of the entire parameter space of metallicity and star formation history using MOPED leads to the same conclusion. Our results therefore continue to argue strongly against an Einstein–de Sitter universe, and favour a Λ-dominated universe in which star formation in at least these particular elliptical galaxies was completed somewhere in the redshift range   z = 3–5  .