Models of travel demand with endogenous preference change and heterogeneous agents

In the literatures of regional science, urban economics, and urban development planning, a working assumption is that individuals respond to incentives and regulations, given their preferences. Models for planning and policy analyses are used to consider what might occur if the incentives or regulations were different. In these models, however, preferences are usually assumed to be given and stable, and agents are usually assumed to be homogeneous. This paper focuses on the implications of making preferences in models of policy implementation endogenously determined and time varying heterogeneous agents. We consider first the recent literature on intertemporal choice and preference change, which cuts across many disciplines, and more briefly the literature on norm-regarding behavior. We then elaborate a simple model of transportation demand—from a static to a dynamic orientation, from fixed and exogenously given preferences of strictly self-regarding agents to endogenously determined and policy-induced preferences of heterogeneous agents—and illustrate its characteristics with simple numerical examples.     

Impact of Earth radiation pressure on GPS position estimates

GPS satellite orbits available from the International GNSS Service (IGS) show a consistent radial bias of up to several cm and a particular pattern in the Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) residuals, which are suggested to be related to radiation pressure mismodeling. In addition, orbit-related frequencies were identified in geodetic time series such as apparent geocenter motion and station displacements derived from GPS tracking data. A potential solution to these discrepancies is the inclusion of Earth radiation pressure (visible and infrared) modeling in the orbit determination process. This is currently not yet considered by all analysis centers contributing to the IGS final orbits. The acceleration, accounting for Earth radiation and satellite models, is introduced in this paper in the computation of a global GPS network (around 200 IGS sites) adopting the analysis strategies from the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE). Two solutions covering 9 years (2000–2008) with and without Earth radiation pressure were computed and form the basis for this study. In previous studies, it has been shown that Earth radiation pressure has a non-negligible effect on the GPS orbits, mainly in the radial component. In this paper, the effect on the along-track and cross-track components is studied in more detail. Also in this paper, it is shown that Earth radiation pressure leads to a change in the estimates of GPS ground station positions, which is systematic over large regions of the Earth. This observed “deformation” of the Earth is towards North–South and with large scale patterns that repeat six times per GPS draconitic year (350 days), reaching a magnitude of up to 1 mm. The impact of Earth radiation pressure on the geocenter and length of day estimates was also investigated, but the effect is found to be less significant as compared to the orbits and position estimates.     

The solubility of quartz in aqueous sodium chloride solution at 350°C and 180 to 500 bars

The solubility of quartz in 2, 3, and 4 molal NaCl was measured at 350°C and pressures ranging from 180 to 500 bars. The molal solubility in each of the salt solutions is greater than that in pure water throughout the measured pressure range, with the ratio of solubility in NaCl solution to solubility in pure water decreasing as pressure is increased. The measured solubilities are significantly higher than solubilities calculated using a simple model in which the water activity in NaCl solutions decreases either in proportion to decreasing vapor pressure of the solution as salinity is increased or in proportion to decreasing mole fraction of water in the solvent.     

MELTWATER FLUXES AT AN ARCTIC FOREST-TUNDRA SITE

Models of surface energy balance and snow metamorphism are utilized to predict the energy and meltwater fluxes at an Arctic site in the forest–tundra transition zone of north-western Canada. The surface energy balance during the melt period is modelled using an hourly bulk aerodynamic approach. Once a snowcover becomes patchy, advection from the bare patches to the snow-covered areas results in a large spatial variation in basin snowmelt. In order to illustrate the importance of small-scale, horizontal advection, a simple parameterization scheme using sensible heat fluxes from snow free areas was tested. This scheme estimates the maximum horizontal advection of sensible heat from the bare patches to the snow-covered areas. Calculated melt was routed through the measured snowcover in each landscape type using a variable flow path, meltwater percolation model. This allowed the determination of the spatial variability in the timing and magnitude of meltwater release for runoff. Model results indicate that the initial release of meltwater first occurred on the shallow upland tundra sites, but meltwater release did not occur until nearly two weeks later on the deep drift snowcovers. During these early periods of melt, not all meltwater is available for runoff. Instead, there is a period when some snowpacks are only partially contributing to runoff, and the spatial variation of runoff contribution corresponds to landscape type. Comparisons of melt with and without advection suggests that advection is an important process controlling the timing of basin snowmelt.     

Sources of dissolved REE in mountainous streams draining granitic rocks, Sierras Pampeanas (Córdoba, Argentina)

Stream waters draining granitic terrains from the highest part (850 to 2200 m a.s.l.) of Sierras Pampeanas (Córdoba, Argentina, ∼32°S, ∼65°W) were sampled in order to define sources and distribution of dissolved rare earth elements (REE), and to describe the geochemical processes that govern their mobility. The contribution of the regional granite to the dissolved REE pool in stream water is limited due to the physical conditions predominating in the area (i.e., steep slopes and semiarid climate). Therefore, precipitation is considered a seasonally significant source controlling REE concentration in stream water. Dissolved REE concentrations are inversely correlated with monthly precipitation and rainfall frequency. During the rainy season (i.e., the austral summer) REE concentrations in stream water are lower than during the dry season (i.e., austral winter). Such low concentrations reflect the balance between the REE input from precipitation and their removal by adsorption. In contrast, during the dry season, the longer residence time of water within fractures and colluvium determines an increased REE concentration in the base flow. Lower pH values also contribute to raise REE concentration through desorption from mineral surfaces.     

On the Occurrence of Zellia from the Maping Limestone of Chengkung, Central Yunnan

INTRODUCTIONThe specimens described in the present paper were collected in 1939 by the late Mr. T. Y. Hsu and Mr. C. S. Pien from the Maping limestone exposed E of Tuikoshan, Chengkung district, Central Yunnan. All specimens belong to Zellia, a subgenus of Pseudoschwagerina; three forms may be referred to known subspecies while two are new.     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

Lateral continuity of basement seismic reflections in 15 Ma ultrafast-spreading crust at ODP Site 1256

The Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) initiated drilling at Site 1256D in the Guatemala Basin, about 1,000 km off the East Pacific Rise to penetrate plutonic rocks, anticipated to be relatively shallow in this region, formed at an ultra-fast spreading rate. IODP Expedition E312 successfully drilled into gabbros at ~1,150 m in basement. Multi-channel seismic traces show weak laterally coherent sub-basement reflections at borehole depths. Synthetic reflectivity seismograms were computed using a Ricker wavelet and impedance profiles from borehole sonic logs. These seismograms show significant sub-basement amplitude peaks. A zero-offset vertical seismic profile, shot on E312, was processed to investigate the authenticity of these reflections and their relationship to borehole geology. A dual scheme of the median filtering and F–K dip filtering was used. Tests with synthetic seismograms indicate the approach is effective at reasonable SNR levels. Downgoing energy is clearly identified but negligible upgoing energy is visible over random noise. These results indicate that lava flows and igneous contacts in upper ocean crust have significant topography on lateral scales less than the Fresnel Zone (~300 m) due to igneous and tectonic processes.     

Sedimentological analysis of two drill cores through the crater moat‐filling breccia,Flynn Creek impact structure,Tennessee

Sedimentological (line‐logging) analysis of two drill cores, FC77‐3 and FC67‐3, situated, respectively, in the northwestern and southeastern quadrants of the Flynn Creek impact structure's crater‐moat area reveals that the ~27 m thick crater moat‐filling breccia consists of three subequal parts. These parts, which were deposited during early modification stage of this marine‐target impact structure, are distinguished on the basis of vertical trends in sorting, grain size, and counts of clasts per meter in comparison with other well‐known marine‐target impact structures, namely Lockne, Tvären, and Chesapeake Bay. The lower part is interpreted to represent mainly slump deposits, and the middle part is interpreted to represent a stage intermediate between slump and marine resurge, that is, a traction flow driven by overriding suspension flow. The upper part (size graded, and relatively well sorted and fine grained) is interpreted to represent marine resurge flow only. The upper part is capped by a relatively thin and relatively fine‐grained calcarenite to calcisiltite deposit.