National-scale estimation of potentially harmful element ambient background concentrations in topsoil using parent material classified soil:stream–sediment relationships

Regulatory authorities require estimates of ambient background concentrations (ABCs) of potentially harmful elements (PHEs) in topsoil; such data are currently not available in many countries. High resolution soil geochemical data exist for only part of England and Wales, whilst stream sediment data cover the entire landscape. A novel methodology is presented for estimating soil equivalent ABCs for PHEs from high-resolution (HR) stream sediment geochemical data grouped by common parent materials (PM), using arsenic (As) as an example. Geometric mean (GM) values for local PM groups are used to investigate different approaches for transforming sediment to soil equivalent concentrations. Holdout validation is used to assess: (i) the optimum number of samples for calculating local GM values, and (ii) the optimum scale at which to group data when using linear regression analysis to estimate GM soil ABCs from local sediment geochemical values. Holdout validation showed that the smallest differences were generally observed when five observations were used to calculate the GM and that these should be grouped over the smallest possible area in order to encompass soils over PMs with elevated GM As concentrations. Geometric mean ABCs are estimated and mapped for As in mineral soil across all of England and Wales within delineations of PM polygons. Errors for the estimation of soil equivalent GM As ABCs based on sediment data for an independent validation set were of a similar magnitude to those from holdout validation applied to the original data suggesting the approach is robust. The estimates of soil equivalent ABCs suggest that As exceeds the regulatory threshold used in risk assessments for residential land use (20 mg kg⁻¹) across 16% of the landscape of England and Wales. The applicability of the method for cognate landscapes, and potential refinements is discussed.     

Radon transfer from groundwater used in showers to indoor air

Estimation of Rn transfer from water to indoor air based on multi-day measurements may underestimate alpha exposure that occurs at short time scales in confined spaces, such as from showering, in houses with high Rn activities in the water supply. In order to examine one such incremental increase in exposure, variations in Rn in water and indoor air in 18 houses with private wells in western North Carolina (USA) were investigated. Radon in well water ranged from 158 to 811 Bq L⁻¹ (median 239 Bq L⁻¹). After 20-min showers in bathrooms with closed doors, peak Rn in air increases (above background) ranged from 71 to 4420 Bq m⁻³ (median 1170 Bq m⁻³). Calculated transfer coefficients at the scale of a 40-min closed bathroom (20-min shower plus 20 min post-shower) are described by a lognormal distribution whose geometric mean exceeds the widely-used ∼10⁻⁴ whole-house transfer coefficient by about one order of magnitude. As short-lived decay products grow from shower-derived Rn, short-term alpha energy exposure occurs in bathrooms in addition to the exposure caused by Rn mixed throughout the volume of the house. Due to the increasing ratio of Rn decay products to Rn, alpha energy exposure is greatest several minutes after the shower is turned off. For a 7.2-min shower with 10 min of additional exposure before opening the door, a geometric mean 5.6% increase in exposure over the ∼10⁻⁴ whole-house transfer coefficient derived from longer measurement periods was estimated. In addition to Rn activity in water, short-term shower exposure to Rn progeny depends on exposure time, ventilation, attachment and deposition, among other variable factors that characterize individual houses and residents.     

Coupled hydrogeological and reactive transport modelling of the Simpevarp area (Sweden)

The Simpevarp area is one of the alternative sites being considered for the deep geological disposal of high level radioactive waste in Sweden. In this paper, a coupled regional groundwater flow and reactive solute transport model of the Simpevarp area is presented that integrates current hydrogeological and hydrochemical data of the area. The model simulates the current hydrochemical pattern of the groundwater system in the area. To that aim, a conceptual hydrochemical model was developed in order to represent the dominant chemical processes. Groundwater flow conditions were reproduced by taking into account fluid-density-dependent groundwater flow and regional hydrogeologic boundary conditions. Reactive solute transport calculations were performed on the basis of the velocity field so obtained. The model was calibrated and sensitivity analyses were carried out in order to investigate the effects of heterogeneities of hydraulic conductivity in the subsurface medium. Results provided by the reactive transport model are in good agreement with much of the measured hydrochemical data. This paper emphasizes the appropriateness of the use of reactive solute transport models when water-rock interaction reactions are involved, and demonstrates what powerful tools they are for the interpretation of hydrogeological and hydrochemical data from site geological repository characterization programs, by providing a qualitative framework for data analysis and testing of conceptual assumptions in a process-oriented approach.     

First U–Pb SHRIMP age of the Hauterivian stage, Neuquén Basin, Argentina

A high-resolution ion-microprobe (SHRIMP) U–Pb zircon age from a tuff layer intercalated in the ammonoid bearing sedimentary succession of the Neuquén Basin in Argentina provides a robust geochronologic date to add to the absolute ages and to improve the relative chronology of the Early Cretaceous Hauterivian stage. The tuff layer appears interbedded between shales of the upper member (Agua de la Mula) of the Agrio Formation within the Spitidiscus riccardii ammonoid zone (base of the Late Hauterivian) yielding a date of 132.5 ± 1.3 Ma. This date confirms and supports an accurate correlation between the ammonoid biostratigraphy of the Neuquén Basin with the Western Mediterranean Province of the Tethys during the Early Cretaceous and matches with the most recently published time scale. It also casts doubts on the validity of K–Ar ages on glauconite-grains recently reported from the Lower Cretaceous of the Vocontian Basin of France.     

Feasibility of pre-earthquake strengthening of buildings based on cost-benefit and life-cycle cost analysis, with the aid of fragility curves

There are two fundamental questions this article aims to deal with. First, whether a pre-earthquake strengthening of a large and heterogeneous building stock (the emphasis here is on building types common in S. Europe), is economically feasible or not, and second what is the optimal retrofit level for mitigating the seismic risk. To this purpose contemporary decision making tools, namely cost-benefit and life-cycle cost analyses, are tailored to the needs of the present study, and implemented with the aid of an ad-hoc developed new software application (COBE06). A method for estimating the reduction in structural vulnerability due to retrofit is proposed, as well as a methodology to determine the optimum retrofit level using the fragility curve approach. Finally, the proposed methodology is used in a pilot application that concerns the city of Thessaloniki, and results are drawn for the feasibility of strengthening the reinforced concrete building stock in this city.     

An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessment. A case study from the Ebro Valley evaporite alluvial karst (NE Spain)

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km² year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology (precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km²) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km² year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km² year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence. Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes.     

Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.     

Tidal inundation mapping under enhanced land subsidence in Semarang,Central Java Indonesia

Tidal inundation by high tide under enhanced land subsidence is a damaging phenomenon and a major threat to the Semarang urban area in Indonesia. It impacts on economic activities, as well as the cost of an emergency program and causes interruption of pubic services, danger of infectious diseases and injury to human lives. This study examines a spatial analysis tool on the GIS-raster system for the tidal inundation mapping based on the subsidence-benchmark data and modified detail digital elevation model. Neighborhood operation and iteration model as a spatial analysis tool have been applied in order to calculate the encroachment of the tidal inundation on the coastal area. The resulting map shows that the tidal flood spreads to the lowland area and causes the inundation of coastal settlement, infrastructure, as well as productive agricultural land, i.e., the fish-pond area. The monitoring of the vulnerable area due to the tidal inundation under the scenario of extended land subsidence plays an important role in long-term coastal zone management in Semarang.