Mean sea level trends around the English Channel over the 20th century and their wider context

This paper provides estimates of rates of change in mean sea level around the English Channel, based on an extensive new hourly sea level data set for the south coast of the UK, derived from data archaeology. Mean sea level trends are found to vary by between 0.8 and 2.3 mm/yr around the Channel. The rates of mean sea level change are calculated by removing the coherent part of the sea level variability from the time series of annual mean sea level before fitting linear trends. The improvement in accuracy gained by using this approach is assessed by comparing trends with those calculated using the more traditional method, in which linear trends are fitted directly to the original records. Removal of the coherent part of the sea level variability allows more precise trends to be calculated from records spanning 30 years. With the traditional approach 50 years is required to obtain the same level of accuracy. Rates of vertical land movement are approximated by subtracting the mean sea level trends from the most recent regional estimate of change in sea level due to oceanographic processes only. These estimated rates are compared to measurements from geological data and advanced geodetic techniques. There is good agreement around most of the UK. However, the rates estimated from the sea level records imply that the geological data suggest too much submergence along the western and central parts of the UK south coast. Lastly, the paper evaluates whether the high rates of mean sea level rise of the last decade are unusual compared to trends observed at other periods in the historical record and finds that they are not.     

Polyhedral approximations in physical geodesy

Summary A procedure is derived for the upward continuation of unevenly spaced gravity data. The topographic relief is approximated by a polyhedron with triangular faces and vertices placed at small distances around the surface of a sphere. The usual Fredholm integral equation of the second kind is modified considering the discontinuity of the normal vector. It is solved by successive approximations assuming the unknown function is linear inside each face at every step of the iteration process. An approximate formula to obtain the anomalous potential from the Bouguer anomaly is discussed. The potential of a homogeneous polyhedron is derived and used to compute relief corrections to the geoid undulations. Numerical applications are presented with respect to the Romanian territory.Partially presented at theJoint Symposium of IGC and IGC, Graz, Austria, 11–17 September 1994     

Numerical Modeling of the Ston-Slano (Croatia) Aftershock Sequence

The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M _L 4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock.     

Large debris avalanches and associated eruptions in the Holocene eruptive history of Shiveluch Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia

 Shiveluch Volcano, located in the Central Kamchatka Depression, has experienced multiple flank failures during its lifetime, most recently in 1964. The overlapping deposits of at least 13 large Holocene debris avalanches cover an area of approximately 200 km² of the southern sector of the volcano. Deposits of two debris avalanches associated with flank extrusive domes are, in addition, located on its western slope. The maximum travel distance of individual Holocene avalanches exceeds 20 km, and their volumes reach ∼3 km³. The deposits of most avalanches typically have a hummocky surface, are poorly sorted and graded, and contain angular heterogeneous rock fragments of various sizes surrounded by coarse to fine matrix. The deposits differ in color, indicating different sources on the edifice. Tephrochronological and radiocarbon dating of the avalanches shows that the first large Holocene avalanches were emplaced approximately 4530–4350 BC. From ∼2490 BC at least 13 avalanches occurred after intervals of 30–900 years. Six large avalanches were emplaced between 120 and 970 AD, with recurrence intervals of 30–340 years. All the debris avalanches were followed by eruptions that produced various types of pyroclastic deposits. Features of some surge deposits suggest that they might have originated as a result of directed blasts triggered by rockslides. Most avalanche deposits are composed of fresh andesitic rocks of extrusive domes, so the avalanches might have resulted from the high magma supply rate and the repetitive formation of the domes. No trace of the 1854 summit failure mentioned in historical records has been found beyond 8 km from the crater; perhaps witnesses exaggerated or misinterpreted the events. Received: 18 August 1997 / Accepted: 19 December 1997     

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.     

Analysis of sustained long-period activity at Etna Volcano, Italy

Following the installation of a broadband network on Mt. Etna, sustained Long-Period (LP) activity was recorded accompanying a period of total quiescence and the subsequent onset of the 2004–2005 effusive episode. From about 56000 events detected by an automatic classification procedure, we analyse a subset of about 3000 signals spanning the December 17th, 2003–September 25th, 2004, time interval. LP spectra are characterised by several, unevenly-spaced narrow peaks spanning the 0.5–10 Hz frequency band. These peaks are common to all the recording sites of the network, and different from those associated with tremor signals. Throughout the analysed time interval, LP spectra and waveforms maintain significant similarity, thus indicating the involvement of a non-destructive source process that we interpret in terms of the resonance of a fluid-filled buried cavity. Polarisation analysis indicates radiation from a non-isotropic source involving large amounts of shear. Concurrently with LP signals, recordings from the summit station also depict Very-Long-Period (VLP) pulses whose rectilinear motion points to a region located beneath the summit craters at depths ranging between 800 and 1100 m beneath the surface. Based on a refined repicking of similar waveforms, we obtain robust locations for a selected subset of the most energetic LP events from probabilistic inversion of travel-times calculated for a 3D heterogenous structure. LP sources cluster in a narrow volume located beneath the summit craters, and extending to a maximum depth of ≈ 800 m beneath the surface. No causal relationships are observed between LP, VLP and tremor activities and the onset of the 2004–2005 lava effusions, thus indicating that magmatic overpressure played a limited role in triggering this eruption. These data represent the very first observation of LP and VLP activity at Etna during non-eruptive periods, and open the way to the quantitative modelling of the geometry and dynamics of the shallow plumbing system.     

The continental record of Ediacaran volcano‐sedimentary successions in southern Brazil and their global implications

The Ediacaran is one of the most important periods on Earth evolution, including the first appearance of soft‐bodied macrofossils, major climatic changes and a supposed rise in free oxygen. In southernmost Brazil, this period is represented by Camaquã Supergroup, including the Bom Jardim Group and the Acampamento Velho Formation, both of which record continental palaeoenvironmental changes in a more than 5000 m thick stratigraphic succession. Age constraints are given by seven Ar‐Ar and U‐Pb determinations on volcanic rocks, which bracket these units between c. 605 and 574 Ma, revealing the best dated and most continuous documented Ediacaran continental succession to date. Depositional systems evolution supports a Phanerozoic‐type glacial context during the last Neoproterozoic glacial event and presents the Picada das Graças Formation (580 ± 3.6 Ma) as the first dated non‐glacial unit coeval to the Gaskiers Formation.     

Use of detrital foods and assimilation of nitrogen by coastal detritivores

Two killifish common in east coast U.S.A. salt marshes,Cyprinodon variegatus Lacepede andFundulus heteroclitus Walbaum, differ in their ability to assimilate nitrogen from and grow on detritus.C. variegatus grew on a diet of detritus ofSpartina alterniflora Loisel, whileF. heteroclitus did not. In addition, when the fish were fed¹⁵N-labeledS. alterniflora detritus,¹⁵N:¹⁴N ratios inC. variegatus were higher than were ratios inF. heteroclitus. Therefore, even though both species ingest large amounts of detritus,C. variegatus makes more effective use of this portion of its diet. These dietary differences are corroborated by anatomical differences that suggest thatC. variegatus should make better use of detrital or plant tissues thanF. heteroclitus. In the label experiment, the degree of label in both fish was directly proportional to the degree of label in the food treatments. In previously published experiments designed to compare plant substrate with attached microbes as nitrogen sources for detritivores, %¹⁵N incorporated by a polychaete was also directly proportional to %¹⁵N in the detrital food. Therefore, it is difficult to distinguish between plant substrate and microbes as nitrogen sources for this detritivore.