Point process-based modeling of multiple debris flow landslides using INLA: an application to the 2009 Messina disaster

We develop a stochastic modeling approach based on spatial point processes of log-Gaussian Cox type for a collection of around 5000 landslide events provoked by a precipitation trigger in Sicily, Italy. Through the embedding into a hierarchical Bayesian estimation framework, we can use the integrated nested Laplace approximation methodology to make inference and obtain the posterior estimates of spatially distributed covariate and random effects. Several mapping units are useful to partition a given study area in landslide prediction studies. These units hierarchically subdivide the geographic space from the highest grid-based resolution to the stronger morphodynamic-oriented slope units. Here we integrate both mapping units into a single hierarchical model, by treating the landslide triggering locations as a random point pattern. This approach diverges fundamentally from the unanimously used presence–absence structure for areal units since we focus on modeling the expected landslide count jointly within the two mapping units. Predicting this landslide intensity provides more detailed and complete information as compared to the classically used susceptibility mapping approach based on relative probabilities. To illustrate the model’s versatility, we compute absolute probability maps of landslide occurrences and check their predictive power over space. While the landslide community typically produces spatial predictive models for landslides only in the sense that covariates are spatially distributed, no actual spatial dependence has been explicitly integrated so far. Our novel approach features a spatial latent effect defined at the slope unit level, allowing us to assess the spatial influence that remains unexplained by the covariates in the model. For rainfall-induced landslides in regions where the raingauge network is not sufficient to capture the spatial distribution of the triggering precipitation event, this latent effect provides valuable imaging support on the unobserved rainfall pattern.     

Stochastic properties of lower ionosphere as earthquake precursor

Lower portion of the ionosphere known as the D-layer has properties of Gaussian random plane affecting very low frequency waves. This is manifested by stochastic properties of reflected VLF waves as their auto-correlation function (ACF) in time is the Bessel function of the first kind and zero order. In this paper, we show that the properties of this Bessel function are connected with the seismic activity in the area near the great circle path of VLF waves.     

SPM response to tide and river flow in the hyper-turbid Ems River

In this paper, we analyse the behaviour of fine sediments in the hyper-turbid Lower Ems River, with focus on the river’s upper reaches, a stretch of about 25 km up-estuary of Terborg. Our analysis is based on long records of suspended particulate matter (SPM) from optical backscatter (OBS) measurements close to the bed at seven stations along the river, records of salinity and water level measurements at these stations, acoustic measurements on the vertical mud structure just up-estuary of Terborg and oxygen profiles in the lower 3 m of the water column close to Leerort and Terborg. Further, we use cross-sectionally averaged velocities computed with a calibrated numerical model. Distinction is made between four timescales, i.e. the semi-diurnal tidal timescale, the spring–neap tidal timescale, a timescale around an isolated peak in river flow (i.e. about 3 weeks) and a seasonal timescale. The data suggest that a pool of fluid/soft mud is present in these upper reaches, from up-estuary of Papenburg to a bit down-estuary of Terborg. Between Terborg and Gandersum, SPM values drop rapidly but remain high at a few gram per litre. The pool of fluid/soft mud is entrained/mobilized at the onset of flood, yielding SPM values of many tens gram per litre. This suspension is transported up-estuary with the flood. Around high water slack, part of the suspension settles, being remixed during ebb, while migrating down-estuary, but likely not much further than Terborg. Around low water slack, a large fraction of the sediment settles, reforming the pool of fluid mud. The rapid entrainment from the fluid mud layer after low water slack is only possible when the peak flood velocity exceeds a critical value of around 1 m/s, i.e. when the stratified water column seems to become internally supercritical. If the peak flood velocity does not reach this critical value, f.i. during neap tide, fluid mud is not entrained up to the OBS sensors. Thus, it is not classical tidal asymmetry, but the peak flood velocity itself which governs the hyper-turbid state in the Lower Ems River. The crucial role of river flow and river floods is in reducing these peak flood velocities. During elongated periods of high river flow, in e.g. wintertime, SPM concentrations reduce, and the soft mud deposits consolidate and possibly become locally armoured as well by sand washed in from the river. We have no observations that sediments are washed out of the hyper-turbid zone. Down-estuary of Terborg, where SPM values do not reach hyper-turbid conditions, the SPM dynamics are governed by classical tidal asymmetry and estuarine circulation. Hence, nowhere in the river, sediments are flushed from the upper reaches of the river into the Ems-Dollard estuary during high river flow events. However, exchange of sediment between river and estuary should occur because of tide-induced dispersion.     

New evidence of sea‐level lowstands and paleoenvironment during MIS 6 and 4 in the Cantabrian coastal karst: the Cobiheru cave (North Iberia)

The geomorphological evolution of the Cobiheru Cave shows the influence of the non‐carbonate coastal mountain ranges on coastal karst evolution, as well as the temporal distribution of the cold‐adapted fauna sites in the Cantabrian Coast. Geomorphological observation and uranium/thorium (U/Th) dating lead to the construction of an evolution model. The model comprises two episodes of cave deposition occurring at c. 60–70 and 130–150 ka, linked to cold climate conditions, global sea‐level lowstands and the erosion of alluvial fans that covered the karst. Moreover, the comparison between the Cobiheru record and some raised beaches identified in previous studies sets the beginning of the sea‐level lowering in the Cantabrian Sea during the marine isotope stages (MIS) 5–4 transition. Two palaeoenvironments are inferred based on finding Equus ferus and Elona quimperiana. A wet deciduous forest would have developed on the emerged marine terrace of the Cobiheru Cave since at least the Middle Pleistocene, and an open landscape with scarce vegetation would have been present at c. 65 ka. The erosional event identified in the Cobiheru Cave helps to understand the temporal distribution of cold‐adapted mammals located in the Asturias region. The probable sites of cold‐adapted fauna developed in caves and alluvial fans would have disappeared after 65 ka. Therefore, palaeontological and palaeoclimate research based on cold‐adapted mammals suggests the occurrence of an hiatus in the palaeontological record prior to 50 ka. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Artificial Earth Satellite Motion in an Oblate,Rotating Atmosphere with Symmetrical Diurnal Effect

The equations describing the disturbed motion of an artificial Earth satellite in the atmosphere are integrated by using a new variable instead of the true anomaly. The atmospheric flattening and rotation, the linear variation of the density scale height with the altitude, the symmetrical diurnal effect and the variation of its amplitude with the heigth are taken into account. Approximate formulae for the perturbations in all the orbital elements over a revolution of the satellite are given.     

Depositional controls on a hypertidal barrier-spit system architecture and evolution,Pointe du Banc spit,north-western France

Physical stratigraphy, architecture and evolution of barrier systems in hypertidal environments (tidal range above 6 m) are understudied, and depositional controls are poorly understood compared with wave-dominated barrier systems and barrier spits in microtidal, mesotidal and macrotidal settings. Based on vibracores, ground-penetrating radar, radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence age data, the formation and evolution of the hypertidal barrier system of Pointe du Banc, north-western France has been reconstructed. The study shows that the barrier spit has a complex composite sedimentary architecture consisting of wave-dominated and tide-dominated sedimentary bodies. A morpho-sedimentary model is presented that demonstrates how barrier-spit progradation resulting from littoral drift was the main manner of spit elongation, whereas sediment convergence caused by landward migration of swash bars and seaward migration of tidal dunes caused the spit terminus to grow in height and width. These results suggest that long-term accretion rates varied considerably in response to changes in sediment supply. Variations in storminess together with the large-scale topography of the coast controlled the sediment supply and thus the evolution of the barrier system during latest Holocene. Despite architectural complexity, hypertidal barrier systems preserve records of past climate changes.     

Effect of Monetary Incentives on Mail Survey Response Rates for Midwestern Farmers

Response rates to mail-based surveys have declined in recent decades, and survey response rates for farmers tend to be low overall. Maintaining high response rates is necessary to prevent non-response bias. Historically, incentives have been an effective tool to increase response rates with general populations. However, the effect of incentives on farmers has not been well tested. In this study, we experimentally manipulated the use of a $2 incentive in two surveys targeted at farmers. We tested both the use of the incentive and the timing of incentive distribution in the survey process. We found the incentive significantly increased response rates with farmers but there was no significant effect of when the incentive was distributed. Additionally, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of using the incentive. While the incentive increased response rate, the cost per survey response also increased and the cost of the incentive was not offset by the increased response rate.     

A New Semi-greedy Approach to Enhance Drillhole Planning

In advanced exploration projects or operating mines, the process of allocating capital for infill drilling programs is a significant and recurrent challenge. Within a large company, the different mine sites and projects compete for the available funds for drilling. To maximize a project’s value to its company, a drillhole location optimizer can be used as an objective tool to compare drilling campaigns. The fast semi-greedy optimizer presented here can allow for the obtention of close to optimal solutions to the coverage problem with up to three orders of magnitude less computing time needed than with integer programming. The heuristic approach is flexible as it allows dynamic updating of block values once new drillholes are selected in the solution, as opposed to existing methods based on static block values. The block values used for optimization incorporate kriging estimate and variance, estimate of indicator at cutoff grade and distances to existing or newly selected drillholes. The heuristic approach tends to locate new drillholes within the maximum risk areas, i.e., within less informed zones predicted as being ore zones. Applied to different deposits, it enables, after suitable normalization, comparison of different drilling campaigns and allocation of budgets accordingly.

     

Late Quaternary evolution of the Çanakkale Strait region (Dardanelles, NW Turkey): implications of a major erosional event for the postglacial Mediterranean-Marmara Sea connection

Seismic and bathymetric data from the Çanakkale Strait and its extensions onto the shelves of the Marmara and Aegean seas indicate that the strait was formed mainly by an erosional event. Four seismic units are observed on seismic profiles. The lower two of these (units 4 and 3) constitute the basement of a regionally widespread erosional unconformity (ravinement), which developed during marine isotope stage 2 (MIS 2). The two upper units (units 2 and 1), which overlie the ravinement surface, form a higher-order sequence. Sequence stratigraphic analysis indicates that units 2 and 1 deposited as lowstand and highstand systems tracts respectively, since the end of MIS 2. The transgressive systems tract is represented by a major erosional event which occurred throughout the Çanakkale sill area when the Mediterranean-Marmara Sea connection and, hence, the Çanakkale Strait was formed. The existence of the erosive ?arköy Canyon along the shelf edge of the southern Marmara Sea demonstrates that the flow direction causing the erosion was from south to north, thus proving that it was produced by Mediterranean water flowing over the sill into the Marmara Sea basin.