Disaster prevention,disaster preparedness and local community resilience within the context of disaster risk management in Cameroon

This paper presents a simulation of three components of near-field ground shaking recorded during the main shock at three stations of the September 16, 1978, Tabas (M _w = 7.4), Iran, earthquake, close to the causative fault. A hybrid method composed of a discrete wavenumber method developed by Bouchon (Bouchon in Bull Seismol Soc Am 71:959–971, 1981; Cotton and Coutant in Geophys J Int 128:676–688, 1997) and a stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency proposed by Motazedian and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005), modified by Assatourians and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 97:935–1949, 2007), is used for generating the seismograms at low (0.1–1.0 Hz) and high frequencies (1.0–20.0 Hz), respectively. The results are validated by comparing the simulated peak acceleration, peak velocity, peak displacement, Arias intensity, the integral of velocity squared, Fourier spectrum and acceleration response spectrum on a frequency-by-frequency basis, the shape of the normalized integrals of acceleration and velocity squared, and the cross-correlation with the observed time-series data. Each characteristic is compared on a scale from 0 to 10, with 10 being perfect agreement. Also, the results are validated by comparing the simulated ground motions with the modified Mercalli intensity observations reported by reconnaissance teams and showed reasonable agreement. The results of the present study imply that the damage distribution pattern of the 1978 Tabas earthquake can be explained by the source directivity effect.     

Extreme value analysis of wet and dry periods in Sicily

Summary For assessing risk of highly unusual events extreme value statistics needs to be applied, which plays an important role in engineering practices for water resources design and management. In hydrology, the typical application of extreme value theory concerns floods in river basins or landslides. The present paper is, instead, focused on the analysis of extreme wet and dry periods in a sample area (Sicily). First, we have studied monthly precipitation extremes both using the annual maximum and partial duration methods, and return times have been estimated by standard statistical techniques. Next, we studied the extremes of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which has been proposed as an indicator for monitoring wet and dry conditions. We found considerable differences both in the return periods and in the time location of the extremes. From our study it appears that the SPI better describes wet and dry periods than the precipitation does. Maps of return times for extreme conditions in Sicily are also presented, which cluster the territory into areas of different extreme return periods. Finally, the occurrence of extremes in Sicily has been related to large-scale atmospheric circulation.     

Key problems in cool-star astrophysics

Selected key problems in cool-star astrophysics are reviewed, with emphasis on the importance of new ultraviolet missions to tackle the unresolved issues.UV spectral signatures are an essential probe of critical physical processes related to the production and transport of magnetic energy in astrophysical plasmas ranging, for example, from stellar coronae, to the magnetospheres of magnetars, and the accretion disks of protostars and Active Galactic Nuclei. From an historical point of view, our comprehension of such processes has been closely tied to our understanding of solar/stellar magnetic activity, which has its origins in a poorly understood convection-powered internal magnetic dynamo. The evolution of the Sun's dynamo, and associated magnetic activity, affected the development of planetary atmospheres in the early solar system, and the conditions in which life arose on the primitive Earth. The gradual fading of magnetic activity as the Sun grows old likewise will have profound consequences for the future heliospheric environment. Beyond the Sun, the magnetic activity of stars can influence their close-in companions, and vice versa.Cool star outer atmospheres thus represent an important laboratory in which magnetic activity phenomena can be studied under a wide variety of conditions, allowing us to gain insight into the fundamental processes involved. The UV range is especially useful for such studies because it contains powerful diagnostics extending from warm (∼ 10⁴ K) chromospheres out to hot (1–10 MK) coronae, and very high-resolution spectroscopy in the UV has been demonstrated by the GHRS and STIS instruments on HST but has not yet been demonstrated in the higher energy EUV and X-ray bands. A recent example is the use of the hydrogen Lyα resonance line—at 110 000 resolution with HST STIS—study, for the first time, coronal winds from cool stars through their interaction with the interstellar gas. These winds cannot be detected from the ground, for lack of suitable diagnostics; or in the X-rays, because the outflowing gas is too thin.A 2m class UV space telescope with high resolution spectroscopy and monitoring capabilities would enable important new discoveries in cool-star astronomy among the stars of the solar neighborhood out to about 150 pc. A larger aperture facility (4–6 m) would reach beyond the 150 pc horizon to fainter objects including young brown dwarfs and pre-main sequence stars in star-forming regions like Orion, and magnetic active stars in distant clusters beyond the Pleiades and α Persei. This would be essential, as well, to characterize the outer atmospheres of stars with planets, that will be discovered by future space missions like COROT, Kepler, and Darwin.Deceased October 23, 2005     

Spatial patterns and temporal trends of daily precipitation indices in Iran

Spatial patterns of daily precipitation indices and their temporal trends over Iran are investigated using the APHRODITE gridded daily precipitation dataset for the period 1961–2004. The performance and limitations of the gridded dataset are checked against observations at ten rain-gauge stations that are representative of different climates in Iran. Results suggest that the spatial patterns of the indices reflect the role of orography and sea neighborhoods in differentiating central-southern arid and semi-arid regions from northern and western mountainous humid areas. It is also found that western Iran is impacted by the most extreme daily precipitation events occurring in the country, though the number of rainy days has its maximum in the Caspian Sea region. The time series of precipitation indices is checked for long-term trends using the least squares method and Mann-Kendall test. The maximum daily precipitation per year shows upward trends in most of Iran, though being statistically significant only in western regions. In the same regions, upward trends are also observed in the number of wet days and in the accumulated precipitation and intensity during wet days. Conversely, the contribution of precipitation events below the 75th percentile to the annual total precipitation is decreasing with time, suggesting that extreme events are responsible for the upward trend observed in the total annual precipitation and in the other indices. This tendency towards more severe/extreme precipitation events, if confirmed by other datasets and further analyses with longer records, would require the implementation of adequate water resources management plans in western Iran aimed at mitigating the increasing risk of intense precipitation and associated flash floods and soil erosion.     

Prediction of salinity intrusion in the sheltered estuary of Terengganu River in Malaysia using 1-D empirical intrusion model

Generally one dimensional(1-D) empirical salinity intrusion model is limited to natural alluvial estuary. However,this study attempts to investigate its ability to model a sheltered alluvial estuary of the Terengganu River in Malaysia. The constructed breakwater at the mouth of the river shelters the estuary from direct influence of the open sea. The salinity density along the estuary was collected during the wet and dry seasons for scenarios before and after the constructed breakwater. Moreover, the freshwater discharges, tidal elevations and bathymetry data were also measured as model inputs. A good fit was demonstrated between simulated and observed variables,namely salinity distribution and intrusion length for both scenarios. Thus, the results show that 1-D empirical salinity model can be utilized for sheltered estuarine condition at the Terengganu Estuary, but with an appropriate determination of an initial point. Furthermore, it was observed that the salinity intrusion in the study area is largely dependent on the freshwater discharge rather than tidal elevation fluctuations. The scale of the salinity intrusion length in the study area is proportional to the river discharge of the –1/2 power. It was appeared that the two lines of the 1-D empirical salinity model and discharge power based equation fitted well to each other, with the average predicted minimum freshwater discharge of 150 m3/s is going to be required to maintain acceptable salinity levels during high water slack(HWS) near the water intake station, which is located at 10.63 km from river mouth.     

Microalgal Communities of the Sea Ice, Ice-Covered and Ice-Free Waters of Wood Bay (Ross Sea, Antarctica) During the Austral Summer 1993 – 94

Abstract. During the austral summer 1993 – 94, microalgal density and biomass were investigated in the sea ice, in the underlying water column, in the melt water and during the formation of the sea ice. Of the 96 taxa identified, 59 were diatoms and 32 were dinoflagellates. Among the remaining five species, Pseudopleurochloris antarctica  was very abundant both in the sea ice and in the ice-free waters. Cell densities and biomass of microalgae were higher in the bottom of the sea ice and during the formation of the ice than in the seawater, and diatoms were the dominant group at higher microalgal biomass. Among these, Entomoneis kufferathii , Chaetoceros dichaeta and Fragilariopsis species were the most common taxa.     

Magnetic activity optimal tracers: from radio to X-ray; the relevance of UV astronomy

Observations and analysis of magnetic activity phenomena in the atmospheres of cool stars—e.g., active regions, flares, stellar cycles—give insight into the fundamental processes in the heating of chromospheres, transition regions (TRs), and coronae. Diagnostics of magnetic activity can be found throughout the whole electromagnetic spectrum; from radio wavelengths, where gyrosynchrotron radiation arises from the quiescent and flaring corona, to optical, where important signatures are the Balmer lines and the Ca ii IRT and H&K lines, eventually to UV and X-rays, the latter mainly due to coronal thermal plasma. The UV and EUV ranges contains a plethora of emission lines that are powerful diagnostics for the warm (10?000 K) chromospheres, hot (100?000–800?000 K) TRs and very hot (1–10 MK) coronae. Also very weak coronal winds from cool stars have been identified and characterized thanks to high resolution UV spectra. Here I review the main results from UV observations of cool stars atmospheres and outline what can be expected from future UV imaging and spectroscopy measurements.