The Contribution of Philosophy to Hazards Assessment and Decision Making

Natural hazards assessment, mitigation, research and decisionmaking in the field have not typically been associated with the discipline of philosophy. Nevertheless, there is growing awareness that epistemological issues (regarding the nature ofscientific knowledge, for instance) and ethical questions (for example, relating to responsibilitiesto future generations) can no longer be ignored. This paper explores how values and philosophicalassumptions affect the way that we formulate natural hazards research questions; the methodsthat we choose to examine natural hazards and mitigation schemes; and, ultimately, how weinterpret technical data. It concludes with the recommendation that human factors andqualitative methods of research can contribute in a meaningful way to advancing natural hazardsresearch and decision making.     

A hot spring in granite of the Western Tianshan,China

The western Tianshan range is a major Cenozoic orogenic belt in central Asia exposing predominantly Paleozoic rocks including granite. Ongoing deformation is reflected by very rugged topography with peaks over 7000 m high. Active tectonic deformation is tied to an E–W trending fracture and fault system that sections the mountain chain into geologically diverse blocks that extend parallel to the orogen. In the Muzhaerte valley upwelling hot water follows such a fault system in the Muza granite. About 20 L min⁻¹ Na–SO₄–Cl water with a temperature of 55 °C having a total mineralization of about 1 g L⁻¹ discharge from the hot spring. The water is used in a local spa that is frequented by the people of the upper Ili river area. Its waters are used for balneological purposes and the spa serves as a therapeutic institution. The major element composition of the hot water is dominated by Na and by SO₄ and Cl, Ca is a minor component. Dissolved silica (1.04 mmol L⁻¹) corresponds to a quartz-saturation temperature of 116 °C and a corresponding depth of the source of the water of about 4600 m. This temperature is consistent with Na/K and Na/Li geothermometry. The water is saturated with respect to fluorite and contains 7.5 mg L⁻¹ F⁻ as a consequence of the low Ca-concentration. The water is undersaturated with respect to the primary minerals of the reservoir granite at reservoir temperature causing continued irreversible dissolution of granite. The waters are oversaturated with respect to Ca–zeolite minerals (such as stilbite and mesolite), and it is expected that zeolites precipitate in the fracture pore space and in alteration zones replacing primary granite.     

Export Production in the Subarctic North Pacific over the Last 800 kyrs: No Evidence for Iron Fertilization?

The subarctic North Pacific is a high nitrate-low chlorophyll (HNLC) region, where phytoplankton growth rates, especially those of diatoms, are enhanced when micronutrient Fe is added. Accordingly, it has been suggested that glacial Fe-laden dust might have increased primary production in this region. This paper reviews published palaeoceanographic records of export production over the last 800 kyrs from the open North Pacific (north of ∼35°N). We find different patterns of export production change over time in the various domains of the North Pacific (NW and NE subarctic gyres, the marginal seas and the transition zone). However, there is no compelling evidence for an overall increase in productivity during glacials in the subarctic region, challenging the paradigm that dust-born Fe fertilization of this region has contributed to the glacial draw down of atmospheric CO₂. Potential reasons for the lack of increased glacial export production include the possibility that Fe-fertilization rapidly drives the ecosystem towards limitation by another nutrient. This effect would have been exacerbated by an even more stable mixed layer compared to today. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Towards a better understanding of the Oulmes hydrogeological system (Mid-Atlas,Morocco)

Located in the Mid-Atlas (Morocco), the Oulmes plateau is famous for its mineral water springs “Sidi Ali” and “Lalla Haya” commercialised by the company “Les Eaux minérales d’Oulmès S.A”. Additionally, groundwater of the Oulmes plateau is intensively exploited for irrigation. The objective of this study, essentially performed from data collected during isotopic (summer 2004) and piezometric and hydrogeochemical field campaigns (spring 2007), is to improve the understanding of the Oulmes hydrogeological system. Analyses and interpretation of these data lead to the statement that this system is constituted by a main deep aquifer of large extension and by minor aquifers in a perched position. However, these aquifers interact enough to be in total equilibrium during the cold and wet period. As highlighted by isotopes, the origin of groundwater is mainly infiltration water except a small part of old groundwater with dissolved gas rising up from the granite through the schists.     

Temporal dynamics and persistence of sponge assemblages in a Central Pacific atoll lagoon

Sponges are important components of coral reef fauna, although little is known of their temporal dynamics. Sponges dominate the lagoon system at Palmyra Atoll in the Central Pacific, which may not be its natural state. Here we examined the temporal variability and recruitment rates of these sponge assemblages to determine if they are stable and examined the evidence that a recent transition has occurred from a coral‐ to sponge‐dominated system. We found 24 sponge species in permanent quadrats in the lagoon between 2009 and 2011, and 11 species on our recruitment panels. The sponge assemblage composition and abundance did not vary significantly between years and appear stable. Many sponge recruits were found in both years that the panels were examined although higher rates were recorded in the second year of the study. While it seems very possible that a change to a sponge‐dominated lagoon is associated with declining environmental quality at Palmyra as a result of modifications over 70 years ago, without pre‐modification data on reef assemblage composition this remains speculative. Our observations of short‐term temporal stability in the sponge assemblages at Palmyra highlight the potential for sponge‐dominated reef states to be maintained in degraded reef environments that are seemingly unsuitable for coral survival.     

The out of ecliptic distribution of interplanetary dust and its relation to other bodies in the solar system

We discuss the out-of-ecliptic component of the interplanetary dust cloud and its relation to the other small bodies in the solar system. The determination of the mass loss of comets, so far is quite uncertain and doesn't allow a finite study of the mass input to the dust cloud. However it is shown, that the dust particles in the inner solar system, i.e. within the earth orbit are most probable produced from a collisional evolution of larger, meteoroid, fragments of cometary origin. A further component of interstellar dust is especially important in the outer solar system and perhaps for the collisional evolution of the small bodies.     

A fine balance: Accommodation dominated control of contemporaneous cool-carbonate shelf-edge clinoforms and tropical reef-margin trajectories,North Carnarvon Basin,Northwestern Australia

The concurrent development of a cool-carbonate Miocene clinoform system and the tropical reef which developed on its shelf in the North Carnarvon Basin is studied. The study, based on seismic interpretation and geometrical analysis, seeks to investigate how the architecture of the clinoforms develops in relation to the advance of the reef-margin, providing a proxy for discussing contemporaneous shoreline versus shelf-edge development. The progradation of the reef and shelf-edge often display a closely mirrored development, although the reef twice advances an order of two to three times the concurrent advance of the shelf-edge. The forced regression of the second advance, as compared to the normal regression during the first, is observed in proportionally higher input of sediment towards advance of the shelf-edge and toe, along with a gentler slope. The inability of the shelf-edge to keep pace with the reef-margin (and by proxy the shoreline) during lower accommodation/sedimentation is a result of the increased volume of sediment required to match reef-margin advance beyond the shelf-edge. Increased accommodation/sedimentation ratios promote higher trajectories where the volumes on shelf and slope are more balanced and the development more closely matched. The observed matched development of reef and shelf-edge during both limited and increased slope sedimentation, suggest that accommodation is the dominant control on the location and trajectory of both ‘shoreline’ and shelf-edge, and that excess sediment is deposited along the slope.     

How contact metamorphism can trigger global climate changes: Modeling gas generation around igneous sills in sedimentary basins

Large volumes of greenhouse gases such as CH₄ and CO₂ form by contact metamorphism of organic-rich sediments in aureoles around sill intrusions in sedimentary basins. Thermogenic gas generation and dehydration reactions in shale are treated numerically in order to quantify basin-scale devolatilization. We show that aureole thicknesses, defined as the zone of elevated metamorphism relative to the background level, vary within 30-250% of the sill thickness, depending on the temperature of the host-rock and intrusion, besides the sill thickness. In shales with total organic carbon content of >5 wt.%, CH₄ is the dominant volatile (85-135 kg/m³) generated through organic cracking, relative to H₂O-generation from dehydration reactions (30-110 kg/m³). Even using conservative estimates of melt volumes, extrapolation of our results to the scale of sill complexes in a sedimentary basin indicates that devolatilization can have generated ∼2700-16200 Gt CH₄ in the Karoo Basin (South Africa), and ∼600-3500 Gt CH₄ in the Vøring and Møre basins (offshore Norway). The generation of volatiles is occurring on a time-scale of 10-1000 years within an aureole of a single sill, which makes the rate of sill emplacement the time-constraining factor on a basin-scale. This study demonstrates that thousands of gigatons of potent greenhouse gases like methane can be generated during emplacement of Large Igneous Provinces in sedimentary basins.