Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events

With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return periods is of prime importance for hydrological design or risk assessment. However, due to knowledge and data limitation, uncertainty involved in extrapolating beyond available data is huge. In this paper, different sources of uncertainty in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events are studied in a systematic way. This is done by focusing on several key uncertainty sources using three different case studies. The chosen case studies highlight a number of projects where there have been questions regarding the uncertainty in extreme rainfall/flood estimation. The results show that the uncertainty originated from the methodology is the largest and could be >40% for a return period of 200 years, while the uncertainty caused by ignoring the dependence among multiple hydrological variables seems the smallest. In the end, it is highly recommended that uncertainty in modeling extreme hydrological events be fully recognized and incorporated into a formal hydrological extreme analysis.     

The mean value concept in mono-linear regression of multi-variables and its application to trace studies in geosciences

The "mean value concept" in a mono-linear regression of multi-variables is clarified.Its applications to reconstruction of the past 90-year salinity of the sea surface water in Xisha Islands and to tracing the past 80 ka paleo-geomagnetic events from the Luochuan loess 10Be record are introduced in detail,which show the significance and the potential of the "mean value concept" in geoscience research.     

The effect of single vegetation elements on wind speed and sediment transport in the Sahelian zone of Burkina Faso

Soil loss caused by wind erosion is a widespread phenomenon in the Sahelian zone of West Africa. According to Sahelian farmers, scattered vegetation standing in amongst the crop has the potential for a wind erosion control strategy. This study was conducted to study the effect of single vegetation elements on the pattern of average wind speed and sediment transport. This was done by two experiments that were carried out during the rainy seasons of 2002 and 2003 in north Burkina Faso, West Africa. Wind speeds were measured using three sonic anemometers, at a sampling frequency of 16 Hz. Sediment transport was determined by calculating the mass fluxes from 17 MWAC catchers. In this study, a shrub was defined as a vegetation element with branches until ground and a tree as a vegetation element with a distinctive trunk below a canopy. Behind shrubs wind speed near the soil surface was reduced up to approximately seven times the height of the shrub. The observed reduction in wind speed in the area where wind speed was reduced was 15 per cent on average. At the sides of the shrub, wind speed was increased, by on average 6 per cent. As the area of increase in wind speed is one‐third of the area of decrease in wind speed, the net effect of a shrub is a reduction in wind speed. A similar pattern was visible for the pattern of sediment transport around a shrub. Downwind of a shrub, sediment transport was diminished up to seven times the height of the shrub. Probably most of this material was trapped by the shrub. Trees showed a local increase of wind around the trunk, which is expected to relate to an increase in sediment transport around the trunk. Mass flux measurements of sediment transport were not made, but visual observations in the field substantiate this. Behind the canopy of a tree, a tree acts similarly to a shrub regarding its effects on average wind speed, but as a tree is generally a larger obstacle than a shrub the extent of this effect is larger than for shrubs. Thus, whereas shrubs are more effective than trees regarding their direct effect on soil loss by trapping sand particles near the soil surface, trees are more effective in affecting soil loss indirectly by reducing the wind speed downwind more effectively than shrubs. Therefore, to reduce soil loss in an area, the presence of both trees and shrubs is crucial. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

China’s national carbon emissions trading scheme: lessons from the pilot emission trading schemes,academic literature,and known policy details

Upon completion, China’s national emissions trading scheme (C-ETS) will be the largest carbon market in the world. Recent research has evaluated China’s seven pilot ETSs launched from 2013 on, and academic literature on design aspects of the C-ETS abounds. Yet little is known about the specific details of the upcoming C-ETS. This article combines currently understood details of China’s national carbon market with lessons learned in the pilot schemes as well as from the academic literature. Our review follows the taxonomy of Emissions Trading in Practice: A Handbook on Design and Implementation (Partnership for Market Readiness & International Carbon Action Partnership. (2016). Retrieved from www.worldbank.org): The 10 categories are: scope, cap, distribution of allowances, use of offsets, temporal flexibility, price predictability, compliance and oversight, stakeholder engagement and capacity building, linking, implementation and improvements.

Key policy insights

• Accurate emissions data is paramount for both design and implementation, and its availability dictates the scope of the C-ETS.

• The stakeholder consultative process is critical for effective design, and China is able to build on its extensive experience through the pilot ETSs.

• Current policies and positions on intensity targets and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits constrain the market design of the C-ETS.

• Most critical is the nature of the cap. The currently discussed rate-based cap with ex post adjustment is risky. Instead, an absolute, mass-based emissions cap coupled with the conditional use of permits would allow China to maintain flexibility in the carbon market while ensuring a limit on CO₂ emissions.

     

Amino acid nitrogen in atmospheric aerosols: Occurrence,sources and photochemical modification

The presence of amino acids in atmospheric precipitation and aerosols has been noted for many years, yet relatively little is known about these or other nitrogen containing organic compounds in the atmosphere. Marine and continental rainwater analyses indicate that atmospheric aerosols, and subsequently atmospheric precipitation, may contain substantial levels of free and combined amino acids. The most likely source of amino N in the remote marine atmosphere appears to be the injection of proteinaceous material through the action of bursting bubbles at the sea-air interface or the long range transport from terrestrial sources. The capacity of these substrates to undergo photooxidation and photodegradation in the atmosphere to simpler species, such as ammonium ions, carboxylic acids, and for the S containing amino acids, oxidized forms of sulfur, has received little attention from atmospheric chemists. The photochemistry of covalently bound amino groups, particularly as found in peptides and amino acids, is discussed here with the purpose of summarizing what is known of their occurrence and their possible importance to atmospheric chemistry.     

Structure and collapse of three-dimensional magnetic neutral points

Abstract

The structure and collapse of linear three-dimensional magnetic neutral points is studied by varying the four parameters (p, q,j_|,j_⊥ ) that define, in general, the linear field of a neutral point. The effect of these parameters on both the skeleton structure (i.e. the fan and spine) and the actual field line structure of the null is considered. It is found that one current component (j_⊥ ) causes the skeleton structure of the null to fold up from its potential state, whereas the other current component (j _|;) causes the field lines to bend. The two other parameters (p,q) determine the potential structure of the null and cause the null to transform from a three-dimensional null to a two-dimensional null and from a positive (type B) null to a negative (type A) null.

To investigate the collapse of three-dimensional nulls, solutions to the linear, low-β ideal magnetohydrodynamic equations are found. It is found that three-dimensional null points can collapse if the field line foot-points are free and energy can propagate into the system.     

Efficacy of Selected Compounds on Thermocyclops oblongatus,one of the Main Intermediate Hosts of Guinea Worm in Africa

Ten selected compounds were tested on Thermocyclops oblongatus to determine their ability to be used for treatment of drinking water sources. None were shown to be interesting for individual application in household water tanks. Tested compounds, such as potassium permanganate or chlorine-releasing products, were ineffective or affected dramatically the taste or colour of the water. For collective application in water sources, temephos appeared to be the most valuable pesticide because it was effective against cyclops and harmless for environment. Other pesticides should be proposed as substitutes in case of cyclops resistance to temephos.     

Inverse analysis of deformation mechanism by geodetic surveys−a case study

In 1988 two large earthquakes with magnitude of Ms 7.6 and Ms 7.2 occurred in Lancang-Genma area, Southwest China. This paper discusses the determination of the spatial distribution of fault slip caused by the earthquakes using geodetic surveys. The prior information obtained from geological surveys and seismological investigations was used to determine the geometry of the fault plane and the average fault slip. The smooth constraints on the fault slips have been described by a normal distribution with hyperparameters, which are incorporated in the inversion analysis with a Bayesian model. Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) is used to get the optimal values of hyperparameters. Once the hyperparameters are determined, the maximum likelihood method is employed to estimate the patterns of a fault slip. Based on the results of inverse analysis monitoring geodetic surveys can be properly designed and conducted to obtain crust deformations and predict potential earthquake sources.