Interdecadal change of interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO

A significant interdecadal climate shift of interannual variability and predictability of two types of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely the canonical or eastern Pacific (EP)-type and Modoki or central Pacific (CP) type, are investigated. Using the retrospective forecasts of six-state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for December–January–February during the period of 1972–2005 along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data, we examine the climate regime shift that occurred in the winter of 1988/1989 and how the shift affected interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO for the two periods of 1972–1988 (hereafter PRE) and 1989–2005 (hereafter POST). The result first shows substantial interdecadal changes of observed sea surface temperature (SST) in mean state and variability over the western and central Pacific attributable to the significant warming trend in the POST period. In the POST period, the SST variability increased (decreased) significantly over the western (eastern) Pacific. The MME realistically reproduces the observed interdecadal changes with 1- and 4-month forecast lead time. It is found that the CP-type ENSO was more prominent and predictable during the POST than the PRE period while there was no apparent difference in the variability and predictability of the EP-type ENSO between two periods. Note that the second empirical orthogonal function mode of the Pacific SST during the POST period represents the CP-type ENSO but that during the PRE period captures the ENSO transition phase. The MME better predicts the former than the latter. We also investigate distinctive regional impacts associated with the two types of ENSO during the two periods.     

Time‐varying,nonlinear suspended sediment rating curves to characterize trends in water quality: An application to the Upper Hudson and Mohawk Rivers,New York

This work proposes two modelling frameworks for diagnosing temporal variations in nonlinear rating curves that describe suspended sediment–discharge relationships. A variant of the weighted regression on time, discharge, and season model is proposed and is compared against dynamic nonlinear modelling, a newly developed nonlinear time series filter based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Both approaches estimate a time series of rating curve parameters, with uncertainty, that can be used to diagnose variability in the sediment–discharge relationship over time. We evaluate the models with a variety of synthetic scenarios to highlight their ability to estimate signals of known rating curve change. Results reveal important bias‐variance trade‐offs unique to each approach, and in general, suggest that dynamic nonlinear modelling is better suited for rapid rating curve changes, whereas the weighted regression on time, discharge, and season variant more precisely estimates slow change. The techniques are then applied in two case studies in the Upper Hudson and Mohawk Rivers in New York. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of dynamic rating curves for the management of water quality in riverine and estuary systems.     

Scientific instrumentation for the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope in Big Bear

The NST (New Solar Telescope), a 1.6 m clear aperture, off‐axis telescope, is in its commissioning phase at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO). It will be the most capable, largest aperture solar telescope in the US until the 4 m ATST (Advanced Technology Solar Telescope) comes on‐line late in the next decade. The NST will be outfitted with state‐of‐the‐art scientific instruments at the Nasmyth focus on the telescope floor and in the Coudé Lab beneath the telescope. At the Nasmyth focus, several filtergraphs already in routine operation have offered high spatial resolution photometry in TiO 706 nm, Hα 656 nm, G‐band 430 nm and the near infrared (NIR), with the aid of a correlation tracker and image reconstruction system. Also, a Cryogenic Infrared Spectrograph (CYRA) is being developed to supply high signal‐to‐noise‐ratio spectrometry and polarimetry spanning 1.0 to 5.0 μm. The Coudé Lab instrumentation will include Adaptive Optics (AO), InfraRed Imaging Magnetograph (IRIM), Visible Imaging Magnetograph (VIM), and Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS). A 308 sub‐aperture (349‐actuator deformable mirror) AO system will enable nearly diffraction limited observations over the NST's principal operating wavelengths from 0.4 μm through 1.7 μm. IRIM and VIM are Fabry‐Pérot based narrow‐band tunable filters, which provide high resolution two‐dimensional spectroscopic and polarimetric imaging in the NIR and visible respectively. FISS is a collaboration between BBSO and Seoul National University focussing on chromosphere dynamics. This paper reports the up‐to‐date progress on these instruments including an overview of each instrument and details of the current state of design, integration, calibration and setup/testing on the NST (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Fuzzy modeling of holding capacity of offshore suction caisson anchors

A fuzzy algorithm, the Takagi–Sugeno model, is implemented to develop a fuzzy inference system for predicting the holding capacity of suction caisson foundations for offshore platforms. The premise parameters of the fuzzy model are optimized by using a subtractive clustering algorithm. The consequent parameters are optimally determined via a weighted least square estimation. The input variables used for training the fuzzy model include the aspect ratio of the caisson, the undrained shear strength of the clay, and the angle that the chain force forms with the horizontal. The output of the proposed fuzzy model is the capacity of the suction caisson anchor. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the fuzzy modeling framework, the results of extensive finite element analyses are investigated. Comparisons of the trained fuzzy model with the data demonstrate that the proposed modeling framework is an effective method to estimate the holding capacity of offshore suction caisson systems. Moreover, the performance of the fuzzy model is robust against higher levels of input data uncertainties. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inter-comparison of the infrared channels of the meteorological imager onboard COMS and hyperspectral IASI data

The successful launch and commissioning of the first geostationary meteorological satellite of Korea has the potential to enhance earth observation capability over the Asia Pacific region. Although the specifications of the payload, the meteorological imager(MI), have been verified during both ground and in-orbit tests, there is the possibility of variation and/or degradation of data quality due to many different reasons, such as the accumulation of contaminants, the aging of instrument components, and unexpected external disturbance. Thus, for better utilization of MI data, it is imperative to continuously monitor and maintain the data quality. As a part of such activity, this study presents an inter-calibration, based on the Global Space-based Inter-Calibration System(GSICS), between the MI data and the high quality hyperspectral data from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer(IASI) of the Metop-A satellite. Both sets of data, acquired for three years from April 2011 to March 2014, are processed to prepare the matchup dataset, which is spatially collocated, temporally concurrent,angularly coincident, and spectrally comparable. The results show that the MI data are stable within the specifications and show no significant degradation during the study period. However, the water vapor channel shows a rather large bias value of-0.77 K, with a root-mean-square difference(RMSD) of around 1.1 K, which is thought to be due to the shift in the spectral response function. The shortwave channel shows a maximum RMSD of around 1.39 K, mainly due to the coarse digitization at the lower temperature. The inter-comparison results are re-checked through a sensitivity analysis with different sets of threshold values used for the matchup dataset. Based on this, we confirm that the overall quality of the MI data meets the user requirements and maintains the expected performance, although the water vapor channel requires further investigation.     

Wave propagation in nonlinear one‐dimensional soil model

The objective of the research conducted by the authors is to explore the feasibility of determining reliable in situ values of shear modulus as a function of strain. In this paper the meaning of the material stiffness obtained from impact and harmonic excitation tests on a surface slab is discussed. A one‐dimensional discrete model with the nonlinear material stiffness is used for this purpose. When a static load is applied followed by an impact excitation, if the amplitude of the impact is very small, the measured wave velocity using the cross‐correlation indicates the wave velocity calculated from the tangent modulus corresponding to the state of stress caused by the applied static load. The duration of the impact affects the magnitude of the displacement and the particle velocity but has very little effect on the estimation of the wave velocity for the magnitudes considered herein. When a harmonic excitation is applied, the cross‐correlation of the time histories at different depths estimates a wave velocity close to the one calculated from the secant modulus in the stress–strain loop under steady‐state condition. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A review of the National Groundwater Monitoring Network in Korea

The drastic expansion of cities and the rapid economic growth in Korea have caused dramatic increases to demand from groundwater supplies for drinking, domestic, agricultural and industrial water usage. The Ministry of Construction and Transportation and the Korea Water Resources Corporation have constructed and operated the National Groundwater Monitoring Network (NGMN) throughout the country since 1995. The NGMN, an official project establishing a total of 320 groundwater monitoring stations, was completed in 2005. Each national groundwater monitoring station serves as a baseline and primary station to monitor long‐term general trends in water‐level fluctuations and in groundwater quality. The present NGMN and its monitoring capabilities were evaluated to enhance the efficiency of groundwater monitoring and to meet the new societal conditions. Based on reviews and evaluations, some suggestions and recommendations are made with regard to improvements of the national network, including the installation of rainfall gauges in groundwater monitoring stations, gathering groundwater data every hour instead of every 6 h as at present, involving major cations and anions in the regular and periodic chemical analyses, regular periodic analyses of collected groundwater data, and construction of 199 additional groundwater monitoring stations to supplement the existing groundwater monitoring network. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magnetospheric convection at a low level power ϵ

It is demonstrated that the magnetospheric convection becomes evident in terms of the AE index only when the power ? of the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo becomes greater than ～ 10¹⁸ erg s^?1 or a slightly lower value. An enhanced conductivity is a crucial factor for the magnetospheric convection to manifest even in a low-level increase of the AE index of ～ 50–100 γ.