Tropical Pacific impacts of convective momentum transport in the SNU coupled GCM

Impacts of convective momentum transport (CMT) on tropical Pacific climate are examined, using an atmospheric (AGCM) and coupled GCM (CGCM) from Seoul National University. The CMT scheme affects the surface mainly via a convection-compensating atmospheric subsidence which conveys momentum downward through most of the troposphere. AGCM simulations—with SSTs prescribed from climatological and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions—show substantial changes in circulation when CMT is added, such as an eastward shift of the climatological trade winds and west Pacific convection. The CMT also alters the ENSO wind anomalies by shifting them eastward and widening them meridionally, despite only subtle changes in the precipitation anomaly patterns. During ENSO, CMT affects the low-level winds mainly via the anomalous convection acting on the climatological westerly wind shear over the central Pacific—so that an eastward shift of convection transfers more westerly momentum toward the surface than would occur without CMT. By altering the low-level circulation, the CMT further alters the precipitation, which in turn feeds back on the CMT. In the CGCM, CMT affects the simulated climatology by shifting the mean convection and trade winds eastward and warming the equatorial SST; the ENSO period and amplitude also increase. In contrast to the AGCM simulations, CMT substantially alters the El Nino precipitation anomaly patterns in the CGCM. Also discussed are possible impacts of the CMT-induced changes in climatology on the simulated ENSO.     

Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models

The overall skill of ENSO prediction in retrospective forecasts made with ten different coupled GCMs is investigated. The coupled GCM datasets of the APCC/CliPAS and DEMETER projects are used for four seasons in the common 22 years from 1980 to 2001. As a baseline, a dynamic-statistical SST forecast and persistence are compared. Our study focuses on the tropical Pacific SST, especially by analyzing the NINO34 index. In coupled models, the accuracy of the simulated variability is related to the accuracy of the simulated mean state. Almost all models have problems in simulating the mean and mean annual cycle of SST, in spite of the positive influence of realistic initial conditions. As a result, the simulation of the interannual SST variability is also far from perfect in most coupled models. With increasing lead time, this discrepancy gets worse. As one measure of forecast skill, the tier-1 multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts of NINO3.4 SST have an anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.86 at the month 6. This is higher than that of any individual model as well as both forecasts based on persistence and those made with the dynamic-statistical model. The forecast skill of individual models and the MME depends strongly on season, ENSO phase, and ENSO intensity. A stronger El Niño is better predicted. The growth phases of both the warm and cold events are better predicted than the corresponding decaying phases. ENSO-neutral periods are far worse predicted than warm or cold events. The skill of forecasts that start in February or May drops faster than that of forecasts that start in August or November. This behavior, often termed the spring predictability barrier, is in part because predictions starting from February or May contain more events in the decaying phase of ENSO.     

利用TRMM卫星资料对人工增雨云系模式云微观场预报能力的检验

文中利用TRMM卫星测雨雷达探测反演的云水、雨水、云冰和降冰4种云参数产品及实况降水资料,对比检验该人工增雨云系业务模式对云微观场和地面降水场的预报能力.结果表明,人工增雨云系模式系统对降水的预报能力要略优于现行业务运行的GRAPES模式;人工增雨云系模式系统能较好地预报云系系统云物理微观量的垂直结构特征,模式预报的微观场与卫星监测吻合较好;在播撒窗区的水平分布上,模式预报的各水凝物分布形势和强中心位置与卫星监测一致,其大小也接近监测值;人工增雨云系模式能较好地预报云的微观场和天气形势场,可作为云系人工增雨条件决策的重要参考依据.     

基于CLM3模拟的中国区域陆地水资源分析

针对2007年7月30日发生在山西省南部的区域暴雨局部特大暴雨天气过程,利用多种资料,计算了多种物理量,分析了其演变特征,指出a)前期500 hPa阻塞高压和切断低压的形成和长期维持以及副热带高压的稳定加强、维持,是造成山西大范嗣降水和区域暴雨天气的特殊环流背景.b)特殊背景下形成的MCS是造成此次南部区域暴雨的直接影响系统,强烈而持续的水汽夹卷作用、对流层高层强抽吸作用使得MCS维持和加强.c)地形性辐合的存在使得垂直上升运动加强,而高位势不稳定能量的释放与低层迎风坡面上低云的相互作用,使得MCS不断发展,使雨强出现了3次强烈增幅.     

双流冬草莓低温冻害天气特征及防冻措施探讨

双流县作为我国最大的冬草莓生产基地,低温冻害是冬季生产关键期的主要气象灾害。本文对2005年初低温冻害进行了分析,归纳出了双流县冬草莓低温冻害的发生规律及冻害临界温度指标,并提出了具体的防冻措施。     

Shock waves in the large-scale structure of the Universe

Cosmological shock waves are induced during hierarchical formation of large-scale structure in the universe. Like most astrophysical shocks, they are collisionless, since they form in the tenuous intergalactic medium through electromagnetic viscosities. The gravitational energy released during structure formation is transferred by these shocks to the intergalactic gas as heat, cosmic-rays, turbulence, and magnetic fields. Here we briefly described the properties and consequences of the shock waves in the context of the large-scale structure of the universe.     

Investigation of fractal distribution law for the trace number of random and grouped fractures in a geological mass

A fractal study method of the number of geological mass fractures is introduced in detail in this paper. Three main aspects of the problem were studied: (1) The random distribution of fractures in a geological mass was in good agreement with the fractal law. The size scale of the studied geological mass ranged from 2400 m to 1 mm for the length of each side, and the geological mass samples were taken from 13 coal areas in China. (2) The geological mass fractures were evidently directional and anisotropic, having originated from tectonic movement. Observation and statistics for the data from the Xuangang, Fenxi and Dongshan coal areas in Shanxi, China, demonstrated that the fracture distribution of each group, classified by the strike of the strata, still follow the fractal law, even though the fractal dimension varies to a certain extent with different strikes. (3) The sedimentary strata containing the coal seams, as a geological mass, underwent almost similar tectonic movements in their geological history. The mechanical experiments on geological mass samples from Fenxi and Jiexiu in Shanxi demonstrated that the fractal dimension of the number of fractures in the same strata is in good power function with the product of strength and elastic modulus. The larger the product of the strength of the elastic modulus is, the larger is the fractal dimension, and vice versa.     

青藏高原河流网络高分CubeSat遥感监测

河流网络是地表水循环的重要组成部分,如何实现河流网络动态监测已成为河流遥感研究的热点。近年来,以PlanetScope为代表的CubeSat小卫星已具备了米级空间分辨率、1 d重访周期的优势,这为河流网络高时空分辨率动态监测提供了可能。本文以青藏高原长江源区的通天河流域（227 km²）为研究区,选取2017-05—2017-10 5期3 m空间分辨率CubeSat遥感影像,增强河流横纵剖面特征自动化提取了河流网络,研究了通天河流域河流网络动态变化,对比分析了3 m CubeSat与30 m Landsat 8、10 m Sentinel-2所提取的河流网络,以及5种现有水体数据集（GRWL,GSW,FROM-GLC 2017,OpenStreetMap,HydroSHEDS）。研究结果表明：（1）研究区内河流网络5月水系密度较低（0.38 km^-1）,7—8月河流网络进入丰水期,水系密度显著增加至0.61 km^-1,9月河流网络进入平水期,水系密度趋于平稳（0.53 km^-1）,随后迅速退化并于10月开始冻结,水系密度迅速降低至0.37 km^-1;（2）采用高空间分辨率CubeSat所提取的河流网络能够识别更多细小河流（河宽3—30 m）,CubeSat所提取的河流总长分别为Landsat 8、Sentinel-2所提取河流总长的1.6倍和1.3倍;（3）CubeSat所提取的河流网络水系密度高于现有水体数据集（2.9—12.4倍）,弥补了现有水体数据集无法反映细小河流的不足。     

地形抹平与半经验模型的Landsat TM/ETM+地形校正方法

地形校正可以减小地形起伏对地物光谱的影响,提高计算机分类在山区的精度。设计了针对全球土地覆盖分类的Landsat TM/ETM+数据地形校正方法 SCOS(Smoothed COS余弦),首先对地形的坡度角进行抹平处理,很大程度上削弱了地表非朗伯性对地形校正的影响,然后利用简单有效的余弦校正去除地形效应。该方法与其他常用地形校正算法的对比分析是通过对全球不同区域、不同地表覆盖的有代表性的6景Landsat TM/ETM+数据的试验,采用统计分析与目视判读的方式,从过度校正和类内均一性两个方面进行的。结果表明,该方法在目视效果和统计结果上优于常规方法,并且更加简单有效,无需复杂的大气参数及传感器参数,满足全球地表覆盖分类对地形校正的需求。     

A modified Raupach's model applicable for shear-stress partitioning on surfaces covered with dense and flat-shaped gravel roughness elements

A commonly used measure to prevent soil wind erosion is to cover the surface with gravel. Gravel can inhibit soil erosion by covering the surface directly, changing the airflow field near the surface and sharing the shear stress of wind. Similar to other roughness elements, the protective effect of gravel on soil is usually expressed in terms of the ratio of the shear stress on the exposed soil surface to the total shear stress on the rough surface due to wind, i.e. through a shear-stress partitioning model. However, the existing shear-stress partitioning models, represented by Raupach's model (RM93), are only applicable when the lateral coverage of the roughness elements, λ < 0.10, and the applicability of the models to flat-shaped roughness elements is unclear. The purpose of this study is to verify the applicability of RM93 for dense and flat-shaped gravel roughness elements by using shear-stress data from wind-tunnel measurements pertaining to roughness elements with different densities (0.013 ≤ λ ≤ 0.318) and flat shapes (height-to-width ratios in the range 0.20 ≤ H/W ≤ 0.63), and to modify RM93 to enhance its predictive ability. The results indicate that RM93 cannot accurately predict the shear-stress partitioning for surfaces covered by densely distributed and flat-shaped gravel roughness elements. This phenomenon occurs because, when roughness elements are distributed densely or are flat-shaped, the proportion of the shear stress on the top surface of the roughness elements (τ_c) to the total shear stress (τ) is large; in this case, τ_c plays a dominant role and serves as an essential component in the shear-stress partitioning model. Consequently, RM93 is modified by incorporating τ_c into the calculation of τ. Under conditions of λ < 0.32 and H/W > 0.2, the modified RM93 can yield satisfactory predictions regarding the shear-stress partitioning.