Evaluating the Global Environment Facility: A goodwill gesture or a serious attempt to deliver global benefits?

Over its 17 years, the UN's Global Environment Facility (GEF) has allocated US $7.5 billion intended to develop and implement scientifically and socially credible solutions to key global environmental problems such as climate change, biological diversity loss and degradation of transboundary aquatic systems. We studied 906 GEF projects to analyse the challenges that it is facing in delivering solutions that are likely to be sustainable in the long-term. The research included desk reviews of relevant documents and follow-up interviews with a wide range of stakeholders. Some of the challenges the GEF faces are deeply rooted in temporal and spatial mismatches of scale between human economies and their environmental consequences and the strongly sectoral way current society is managed. We conclude that the GEF obtained impressive results for tackling problems of limited complexity and easily quantified benefits but progress is slower on more complex and less tangible problems impeding sustainable development. Potentially, the GEF could enable adaptive management through a ‘learning by doing’ process, transforming it into an innovative mechanism for delivering global benefits. Continued emphasis on ‘easy wins’ would not allow it to achieve this goal.     

Probabilistic Distribution of the Maximum Wave Heigh

A new method of treating maximum wave height as a random variable in reliability analysis of breakwater caissons is proposed. The maximum wave height is expressed as the significant wave height multiplied by the so-called wave height ratio. The proposed wave height ratio is a type of transfer function from the significant wave height to the maximum wave height. Under the condition of a breaking wave, the ratio is intrinsically nonlinear. Therefore, the probability density function for the variable cannot be easily defined. In this study, however, it can be derived from the relationship between the maximum and significant waves in a nonbreaking environment. Some examples are shown to validate the derived probability density function for the wave ratio parameter. By introducing the wave height ratio into reliability analysis of caisson breakwater, the maximum wave height can be used as an independent and primary random variable, which means that the risk of caisson failure during its lifetime can be evaluated realistically.     

Seismic stratigraphy and structural analysis of the northern East China Sea Shelf Basin interpreted from multi-channel seismic reflection data and cross-section restoration

Analysis of multi-channel seismic data from the northern East China Sea Shelf Basin (ECSSB) reveals three sub-basins (Socotra, Domi, and Jeju basins), separated by structural highs (Hupijiao Rise) and faulted basement blocks. These sub-basins show a typical rift-basin development: faulted basement and syn-rift and post-rift sedimentation separated by unconformities. Four regional unconformities, including the top of acoustic basement, have been identified and mapped from multi-channel seismic data. Faults in the acoustic basement are generally trending NE, parallel to the regional structural trend of the area. The depths of the acoustic basement range from less than 1000 m in the northwestern part of the Domi Basin to more than 4500 m in the Socotra Basin and 5500 m in the Jeju Basin. The total sediment thicknesses range from less than 500 m to about 1500 m in the northwest where the acoustic basement is shallow and reach about more than 5500 m in the south.Interpretation of seismic reflection data and reconstruction of three depth-converted seismic profiles reveal that the northern ECSSB experienced two phases of rifting, followed by regional subsidence. The initial rifting in the Late Cretaceous was driven by the NW-SE crustal stretching of the Eurasian Plate, caused by the subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate. Extension was the greatest during the early phase of basin formation; estimated rates of extension during the initial rifting are 2%, 6.5%, and 3.5% in the Domi, Jeju, and Socotra basins, respectively. A regional uplift terminated the rifting in the Late Eocene-Early Oligocene. Rifting and extension, although mild, resumed in the Early Oligocene; while fluvio-lacustrine deposition continued to prevail. The estimated rates of extension during the second phase of rifting are 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.5% in the Domi, Jeju, and Socotra basins, respectively. A second phase of uplift in the Early Miocene terminated the rifting, marking the transition to the post-rift phase of regional subsidence. Regional subsidence dominated the study area between the Early Miocene and the Late Miocene. An inversion in the Late Miocene interrupted the post-rift subsidence, resulting in an extensive thrust-fold belt in the eastern part of the area. Uplift and subsequent erosion were followed by regional subsidence.     

Structural evolution of the northern East China Sea Shelf Basin interpreted from cross-section restoration

The northern East China Sea Shelf Basin consists of three depressions (the Domi, Jeju, and Socotra Depressions), separated by basement highs or rises. Reconstruction of depth-converted seismic reflection profiles from these depressions reveals that the northern East China Sea Shelf Basin experienced two phases of rifting, followed by regional subsidence. Initial rifting in the Late Cretaceous was driven by the NW?CSE crustal stretching of the Eurasian plate, caused by the subduction of the Pacific plate beneath the plate margin. Major extension (~15 km) took place during the early phase of basin formation. The initial rifting was terminated by regional uplift in the Late Eocene-Early Oligocene, which was probably due to reorganization of plate boundaries. Rifting resumed in the Early Oligocene; the magnitude of extension was mild (<1 km) during this period. A second phase of uplift in the Early Miocene terminated the rifting, marking the transition to the postrift phase of regional subsidence. Up to 2,600 m of sediments and basement rock were removed by erosion during and after the second phase of uplift. An inversion in the Late Miocene interrupted the postrift subsidence, resulting in an extensive thrust-fold belt in the eastern part of the area. Subsequent erosion removed about 900 m of sediments. The regional subsidence has dominated the area since the Late Miocene.     

Reconstruction of late Quaternary sea-level change in southwestern British Columbia from sediments in isolation basins

Bracketing ages on marine—freshwater transitions in isolation basins extending from sea level to 100 m elevation on Lasqueti Island, and data from shallow marine cores and outcrops on eastern Vancouver Island, constrain late Pleistocene and Holocene sea-level change in the central Strait of Georgia. Relative sea level fell from 150 m elevation to about —15 m from 14000 cal. yr BP to 11 500 cal. yr BP. Basins at higher elevations exhibit abrupt changes in diatom assemblages at the marine-freshwater transition. At lower elevations an intervening brackish phase suggests slower rates of uplift. Relative sea level rose to about +1 m about 9000 cal. yr BP to 8500 cal. yr BP, and then slowly fell to the modern datum. The mean rate of glacio-isostatic rebound in the first millennium after deglaciation was about 0.11 in a ^-1, similar to the peak rate at the centres of the former Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice complexes. The latter feature smooth, exponential-style declines in sea level up to the present day, whereas in the study area the uplift rate dropped to less than one-tenth of its initial value in only about 2500 years. Slower, more deeply seated isostatic recovery generated residual uplift rates of <0.01 m a^-1 in the early Holocene after the late-Pleistocene wasting of the Cordilleran ice sheet.     

Lithofacies modeling by multipoint statistics and economic evaluation by NPV volume for the early Cretaceous Wabiskaw Member in Athabasca oilsands area,Canada

The static modeling and dynamic simulation are essential and critical processes in petroleum exploration and development. In this study, lithofacies models for Wabiskaw Member in Athabasca, Canada are generated by multipoint statistics(MPS) and then compared with the models built by sequential indicator simulation(SIS). Three training images(Tls) are selected from modern depositional environments;the Orinoco River Delta estuary, Cobequid bay-Salmon River estuary, and Danube River delta environment. In order to validate lithofacies models, average and variance of similarity in lithofacies are calculated through random and zonal blind-well tests.In random six-blind-well test, similarity average of MPS models is higher than that of SIS model. The Salmon MPS model closely resembles facies pattern of Wabiskaw Member in subsurface. Zonal blind-well tests show that successful lithofacies modeling for transitional depositional setting requires additional or proper zonation information on horizontal variation, vertical proportion, and secondary data.As Wabiskaw Member is frontier oilsands lease, it is impossible to evaluate the economics from production data or dynamic simulation. In this study, a dynamic steam assisted gravity drainage(SAGD)performance indicator(SPIDER) on the basis of reservoir characteristics is calculated to build 3 D reservoir model for the evaluation of the SAGD feasibility in Wabiskaw Member. SPIDER depends on reservoir properties, economic limit of steam-oil ratio, and bitumen price. Reservoir properties like porosity,permeability, and water saturation are measured from 13 cores and calculated from 201 well-logs. Three dimensional volumes of reservoir properties are constructed mostly based on relationships among properties. Finally, net present value(NPV) volume can be built by equation relating NPV and SPIDER. The economic area exceeding criterion of US$ 10,000 is identified, and the ranges of reservoir properties are estimated. NPV-volume-generation workflow from reservoir parameter to static model provides costand time-effective method to evaluate the oilsands SAGD project.     

Simulation of Storm Surge and Wave Due to Typhoon Isewan (5915)

An integrally coupled wave-tide-surge model was developed and then applied to the simulation of the wave-typhoon surge for the typhoon Isewan (typhoon Vera (5915)), which is the strongest typhoon that has struck Japan and caused incalculable damage. An integrally coupled tide-surge-wave model using identical and homogeneous meshes in an unstructured grid system was used to correctly resolve the physics of wave-circulation interaction in both models. All model components were validated independently. The storm surge and wave properties such as the surge height, the significant wave height, wave period and direction were reproduced reasonably under the meteorological forcing, which was reprocessed to be close to the observations. The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for the prediction of the storm surge and waves and the usual barotropic forecast.