Growth fold controls on carbonate distribution in mixed foreland basins: insights from the Amiran foreland basin (NW Zagros,Iran) and stratigraphic numerical modelling

The evolution from Late Cretaceous to early Eocene of the well dated Amiran foreland basin in the NW Iranian Zagros Mountains is studied based on the reconstruction of successive thickness, palaeobathymetry and subsidence maps. These maps show the progressive forelandwards migration of the mixed carbonate‐siliciclastic system associated with a decrease in creation of accommodation. Carbonate facies variations across the basin suggest a structural control on the carbonate distribution in the Amiran foreland basin, which has been used as initial constraint to study the control exerted by syndepositional folding in basin architecture and evolution by means of stratigraphic numerical modelling. Modelled results show that shallow bathymetries on top of growing folds enhance carbonate production and basin compartmentalization. As a consequence, coarse clastics become restricted to the internal parts of the basin and only the fine sediments can by‐pass the bathymetric highs generated by folding. Additionally, the development of extensive carbonate platforms on top of the anticlines favours the basinwards migration of the depositional system, which progrades farther with higher fold uplift rates. In this scenario, build‐ups on top of anticlines record its growth and can be used as a dating method. Extrapolation of presented modelling results into the Amiran foreland basin is in agreement with an early folding stage in the SE Lurestan area, between the Khorramabad and Kabir Kuh anticlines. This folding stage would enhance the development of carbonate platforms on top of the anticlines, the south‐westward migration of the system and eventually, the complete filling of the basin north of the Chenareh anticline at the end of the Cuisian. Incremental thickness maps are consistent with a thin (0.4–2 km) ophiolite complex in the source area of the Amiran basin.     

Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: a review of the literature

Many of the decisions relating to future urban development require information on climate change risks to cities This review of the academic and “grey” literature provides an overview assessment of the state of the art in the quantification and valuation of climate risks at the city-scale. We find that whilst a small number of cities, mostly in OECD countries, have derived quantitative estimates of the costs of climate change risks under alternative scenarios, this form of analysis is in its infancy. The climate risks most frequently addressed in existing studies are associated with sea-level rise, health and water resources. Other sectors such as energy, transport, and built infrastructure remain less studied. The review has also undertaken a case study to examine the progress in two cities—London and New York—which are relatively advanced in the assessment of climate risks and adaptation. The case studies show that these cities have benefited from stakeholder engagement at an early stage in their risk assessments. They have also benefited from the development of specific institutional responsibilities for co-ordinating such research from the outset. This involvement has been critical in creating momentum and obtaining resources for subsequent in-depth analysis of sectoral impacts and adaptation needs..While low cost climate down-scaling applications would be useful in future research, the greatest priority is to develop responses that can work within the high future uncertainty of future climate change, to build resilience and maintain flexibility. This can best be used within the context of established risk management practices.     

The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO₂ growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of ±0.25?K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years.     

On Constraining Pilot Point Calibration with Regularization in PEST

Ground water model calibration has made great advances in recent years with practical tools such as PEST being instrumental for making the latest techniques available to practitioners. As models and calibration tools get more sophisticated, however, the power of these tools can be misapplied, resulting in poor parameter estimates and/or nonoptimally calibrated models that do not suit their intended purpose. Here, we focus on an increasingly common technique for calibrating highly parameterized numerical models—pilot point parameterization with Tikhonov regularization. Pilot points are a popular method for spatially parameterizing complex hydrogeologic systems; however, additional flexibility offered by pilot points can become problematic if not constrained by Tikhonov regularization. The objective of this work is to explain and illustrate the specific roles played by control variables in the PEST software for Tikhonov regularization applied to pilot points. A recent study encountered difficulties implementing this approach, but through examination of that analysis, insight into underlying sources of potential misapplication can be gained and some guidelines for overcoming them developed.     

Volatile emissions and gas geochemistry of Hot Spring Basin,Yellowstone National Park,USA

We characterize and quantify volatile emissions at Hot Spring Basin (HSB), a large acid-sulfate region that lies just outside the northeastern edge of the 640 ka Yellowstone Caldera. Relative to other thermal areas in Yellowstone, HSB gases are rich in He and H₂, and mildly enriched in CH₄ and H₂S. Gas compositions are consistent with boiling directly off a deep geothermal liquid at depth as it migrates toward the surface. This fluid, and the gases evolved from it, carries geochemical signatures of magmatic volatiles and water–rock reactions with multiple crustal sources, including limestones or quartz-rich sediments with low K/U (or ^40?Ar/^4?He). Variations in gas chemistry across the region reflect reservoir heterogeneity and variable degrees of boiling. Gas-geothermometer temperatures approach 300 °C and suggest that the reservoir feeding HSB is one of the hottest at Yellowstone. Diffuse CO₂ flux in the western basin of HSB, as measured by accumulation-chamber methods, is similar in magnitude to other acid-sulfate areas of Yellowstone and is well correlated to shallow soil temperatures. The extrapolation of diffuse CO₂ fluxes across all the thermal/altered area suggests that 410 ± 140 t d^− 1 CO₂ are emitted at HSB (vent emissions not included). Diffuse fluxes of H₂S were measured in Yellowstone for the first time and likely exceed 2.4 t d^− 1 at HSB. Comparing estimates of the total estimated diffuse H₂S emission to the amount of sulfur as SO₄²⁻ in streams indicates ~ 50% of the original H₂S in the gas emission is lost into shallow groundwater, precipitated as native sulfur, or vented through fumaroles. We estimate the heat output of HSB as ~ 140–370 MW using CO₂ as a tracer for steam condensate, but not including the contribution from fumaroles and hydrothermal vents. Overall, the diffuse heat and volatile fluxes of HSB are as great as some active volcanoes, but they are a small fraction (1–3% for CO₂, 2–8% for heat) of that estimated for the entire Yellowstone system.     

The GPS Toolbox

The GPS Toolbox is dedicated to highlighting algorithms utilized by GPS engineers and scientists. If you have an interesting algorithm you would like to share with our readers or if you have a topic you would like to see covered in a future column, contact us at gps-toolbox@ngs.noaa.gov. To comment on the algorithms presented here, or to leave a request for an algorithm you may be looking for, visit our Web site (http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/gps-toolbox). ? 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The problem of “naturally”-occurring drought

Naturally-occurring drought is defined here to be drought arising from the nonlinear interactions which are an inherent part of the dynamics of the climatic system. As such it has no specific excitation mechanism, in contrast to forced drought where sea surface temperature anomalies are frequently cited as an important precursor. The essential difference between these two types of drought is that the former is very local and isolated spatially, whereas the latter is widespread and coherent. Observations for Australia are used to illustrate these points. Results are given for a 10-year general circulation model integration which clearly simulated naturally occurring drought and highlighted its unique characteristics. Multi-annual time series for specific geographical regions in the model show that no differences in monthly mean values of relative humidity or zonal and meridional fluxes of moisture were apparent for years with or without drought. More detailed analysis indicated that rather small differences exist in atmospheric temperatures and absolute humidities between drought and nondrought years which are important factors in determining the onset of precipitation in the model.Overall the analysis emphasises the subtlety of the processes involved. These processes, however, were able to produce completely different precipitation histories from one year to the next at a given point. The smallness of the changes involved in the atmospheric processes indicates that the nonlinearities were able to modulate conditions at a given point within an existing synoptic system only slightly, rather than initiate a new climatic regime in drought years. The problem of naturally-occurring drought, of course, is that it is intrinsically unpredictable.     

Accumulation of sediments,trace metals (Pb,Cu) and total hydrocarbons in Narragansett Bay,Rhode Island

The accumulation of sediments, trace metals and hydrocarbons has been estimated from the analysis of the sediment from six coring sites in Narragansett Bay. Radionuclides (²³⁴Th_xs, ²¹⁰Pb_xs, ^239,240Pu) with known input functions and trace metals (Cu, Pb) were used. We estimate that 6·9 × 10⁴ tons of sediments, 51–90 tons of Pb, 72–100 tons of Cu and 400–1000 tons of total hydrocarbons accumulate annually under present conditions in the bay. This represents 64–117% (Pb), 89–123% (Cu) and 23–58% (hydrocarbons), respectively, of present day inputs to the bay. Furthermore, close to 100% of the particle-reactive radionuclides ²¹⁰Pb and ^239,240Pu accumulate in the bay. Present day inputs to the bay were calculated independently as 77–80 tons Pb and 81 tons of Cu. Sewage effluents were the dominant source of Cu, whereas atmospheric deposition and urban runoff were most important for Pb. Dredging activities by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers between 1946 and 1971 removed more sediments from the bay than would have accumulated during the same time in the undredged areas of the bay. Copper smelting and coal mining on the shores of the upper bay during 1866–1880 left an imprint in the sediments which is still evident. Model derived accumulation rates of Pb, Cu and coal during that time were 3–4 times present-day inputs.