An efficient matrix-free algorithm for the ensemble Kalman filter

In this work, we present an efficient matrix-free ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithm for the assimilation of large data sets. The EnKF has increasingly become an essential tool for data assimilation of numerical models. It is an attractive assimilation method because it can evolve the model covariance matrix for a non-linear model, through the use of an ensemble of model states, and it is easy to implement for any numerical model. Nevertheless, the computational cost of the EnKF can increase significantly for cases involving the assimilation of large data sets. As more data become available for assimilation, a potential bottleneck in most EnKF algorithms involves the operation of the Kalman gain matrix. To reduce the complexity and cost of assimilating large data sets, a matrix-free EnKF algorithm is proposed. The algorithm uses an efficient matrix-free linear solver, based on the Sherman–Morrison formulas, to solve the implicit linear system within the Kalman gain matrix and compute the analysis. Numerical experiments with a two-dimensional shallow water model on the sphere are presented, where results show the matrix-free implementation outperforming an singular value decomposition-based implementation in computational time.     

Assessment of the distribution of sponge chips in the sediment of East Pacific Ocean reefs

Sponges are one of the principal agents of bioerosion and sediment production in coral reefs. They generate small carbonate chips that can be found in the sediments, and we investigated whether these could provide a means for assessment of bioerosion applicable to reef monitoring. We tested this hypothesis on samples from 12 Mexican coral reefs distributed along the Pacific coast, where boring sponges were particularly abundant, and quantified the amount of chips in samples of superficial sediment in three grain‐size fractions: fine (<44 μm), medium (44–210 μm) and coarse (>210 μm). The grain‐size distribution varied among reefs, with the majority of the sediment of most reefs being composed of coarse sands, and the medium and fine fractions dominating only at La Entrega and Playa Blanca. All the reefs presented clear evidence of bioerosion by sponges, with the characteristic chips present in the sediment, although at most sites the percentage of chips was very low (from 1% to 3% of the total sediment). Only at La Entrega and Playa Blanca did they constitute a significant fraction of the total sediment (18% and 16%, respectively). While not statistically significant, there was an interesting trend between sponge chips versus sponge abundance that suggests that quantification of the chips in the sediment could be used as a proxy for sponge erosion of the entire community, which cannot be estimated in by laboratory experiments. However, while this methodology could provide an integrated approach to monitor sponge bioerosion, more studies are necessary due to the influence of environmental factors on the transport and deposition of these chips.     

Climate change predictions for South America

Some of the characteristics of predicted climate changes for South America are analysed for the years 2010 and 2050. These predictions are based on the results of three-dimensional Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results differ between models (GISS, NCAR-CCMs and GFDL), particularly when applied to regional and sub-regional scales and to time scales of less than one-year intervals. It is concluded that these differences are due to the particular structure of each model as well as to the lack of sufficient basic data from the South American sub-continent. The dynamics of vegetation cover play an important role in future water balance changes. The changes in surface temperatures predicted by the GISS model are discussed in relation to changes in the climatic-dynamic base stemming from anthropogenic changes in the vegetation cover.     

Seismic sensitivity analysis of the common structural components of Nepalese Pagoda temples

Nepal is located in a highly active tectonic region of the Himalayan belt, one of the most severe earthquake prone areas of the world. Nepal is lying between the Indian and the Eurasian plate, which are moving continuously, resulting in frequent devastating earthquakes. Moreover, different authors state that the accumulated slip deficit (central seismic gap) is likely to produce large earthquakes in the future. Cultural heritage buildings and monuments are, therefore, at risk, and the eventual cultural loss in the consequence of an earthquake is incalculable. Post-seismic surveys of past earthquakes have shown the potential damage that unreinforced masonry structures, particularly Pagoda temples, may suffer in future earthquakes. Most of the Nepalese Pagoda temples, erected during XIV century, are considered non-engineered constructions that follow very simple rules and construction detailing in respect to seismic resistance requirements and, in some cases, without any concern for seismic action. Presently, conservation and restoration of Nepalese temples is one of the major concerns, since they are considered world heritage with universal value. The present paper is devoted to outline particular building characteristics of the UNESCO classified Nepalese Pagoda temples and the common structural fragilities, which may affect their seismic performance. Moreover, based on a parametric sensitivity analysis, structural weaknesses and fragilities of Pagoda temples were identified associated to the local and traditional construction techniques, detailing and common damages.     

Whole Ecosystem Evidence of Eutrophication Enhancement by Wetland Dredging in a Shallow Tropical Lake

The purpose of this research was to assess the effects of dredging performed in a marginal wetland colonized by aquatic macrophytes on eutrophication of the adjacent shallow tropical lake (Imboassica Lake, Brazil). The river mouth of the Imboassica River that drains into Imboassica Lake had been densely colonized by aquatic vegetation dominated by Typha domingensis (Pers.) when it was dredged. Total and dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were measured monthly over 13 years at four stations in the Imboassica river-lake system. Dredging activities reduced phosphorus and nitrogen retention at the river mouth and subsequently increased these nutrient stocks in the lake waters. Nutrient retention by non-dredged wetland was estimated to be ca. 1,200 kg year⁻¹ (87.3 g m⁻² year⁻¹) for nitrogen and 60 kg year⁻¹ (4.5 g m⁻² year⁻¹) for phosphorus. Our whole-lake approach suggested that dredging might intensify rather than mitigate eutrophication in shallow tropical lakes when the removal of aquatic macrophytes is coupled to the persistence of anthropogenic nutrient inputs from the watershed.