2004年夏季哈尔滨 5次短时强降水天气过程的对比分析

2004年夏季, 哈尔滨在 40d中发生了 5次短时强降水灾害,城市内涝严重,部分交通干线瘫痪.短时强降水天气多发生于中小尺度天气系统,空间尺度小,生命史短,预报难度大.虽然前人在此方面已做过大量工作,但在干旱的气候背景下,为什么频繁发生短时强降水天气,它们的共同特征是什么？本文从环流条件、卫星云图、多普勒雷达回波以及物理量场进行分析,对上述问题进行了探讨.     

用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。     

安徽凤阳和张八岭地区含金石英脉的40Ar/39Ar年龄及其地质意义

用快中子活化法测定了安徽凤阳和张八岭地区朱顶、毛山和上成3个金矿床第一阶段晚期和第二阶段的含金石英脉,石英的阶段加热40Ar/39Ar坪年龄值域为(116.1±0.6～118.3±0.5)Ma,分别与其最小视年龄和等时线年龄接近.坪年龄、最小视年龄和等时线年龄3种年龄值域为(113.4±0.4～118.3±0.5)Ma,可以作为石英的形成年龄域. 根据含金石英脉和围岩的空间关系,该年龄值域作为石英脉金矿的形成年龄是合理可靠的.金矿床形成于早白垩世阿普特期,与此时郯庐断裂带略带右行走滑正断层活动一致.     

^40Ar／^39Ar Fast Neutron Activation Ages of Quartz from the Jinman Vein Copper Dposit in Western Yunnan and Their Significance

Quartz samples collected from the Jinman vein copper deposit in the Lanping Basin of western Yunnan were determined by⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar fast neutron activation techniques, and the spectra are characterized as being saddle-shaped. The samples yielded a plateau age of 58.05 ± 0.54 Ma, a minimum appearance age of 56.76 ±0.81 Ma and an isochron age of 54.30 ± 0.15 Ma, the three ages being close to each other, indicating that the ages of the quartz samples so far determined are true and reliable. The plateau age represents the time of formation of Cu-bearing quartz veins, which is corresponding to Early Himalayan. This age is also consistent with the time at which a tectonically thermal event (60 Ma) took place within the Lanping Basin, Yunnan Province. In consideration of the fact that copper ore and other ore types in the vast area of western Yunnan are concentrated mainly in the Early Himalayan strata, the authors believe that there must have existed some indispensable key factors leading to metallogenesis on a large scale during the Early Himalayan period in western Yunnan and also constraining in union the formation of ore deposits there.     

中原地区M≥6级地震后的减(增)震效应

通过对中原地区1500年－2000年所有19次M≥6级地震后空间图像的分析，初步认为M≥6级地震发生后平均63年内，在距原震中平均176km内无M≥5级地震发生，全部19次震例均呈现出内部减震效应，而在其外围出现地震增强的活动图像特征，增震效应对应率为72％。这种强震后的减（增）震效应，不仅对地震危险性分析，而且对1年尺度以上的地震趋势预测均有一定的意义。     

Expansion and contraction of Chinese deserts during the Quaternary

Episodic dune formations during the Quaternary are found in many deserts of China. The causes of desert expansions on different time scales are not the same. Desert extension at about 1.1 and 0.9 Ma ago were the response to the active tectonic movements, whereas the desert evolutions on the ten-thousand years time scale were the response to the orbital scale climatic changes. Spatial scale studies on desert evolution indicate that desert margins shifted greatly during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the Holocene optimum, its changing from 125°E of the LGM to 105°E of the climatic optimum. Historical desertification in the semiarid China is not a response to climate drought but largely associated with the human impacts (mainly over-cultivation) since about 2300 years ago, which leads to the reworking of the underlying LGM sands.     

X线侧位片与高分辨率CT对鼻骨骨折的对比研究

目的　通过86例鼻骨骨折的鼻骨X线侧位片与高分辨率CT(HRCT）对比研究，确定HRCT检查对鼻骨骨折的诊断价值。材料与方祛　86例鼻外伤或/和He、面外伤的患者均进行了鼻骨X线侧位摄影、HRCT扫描检查，经集体讨论，由有经验的放射医师对全部影像资料进行分析并进行统计学处理。结果HRCT显示所有的86例鼻骨骨折，但在此86例骨折中X线平片只显示了35例阳性，包括15例鼻骨汇合部骨折，7例双侧鼻骨骨折，3例复合骨折(鼻骨汇合部及双侧鼻骨骨折)，l0例鼻区骨折。X线平片显示5l例为阴性。结论　对鼻骨骨折的诊断，HRCT明显优于鼻骨X线侧位片，HRCT扫描检查可提高X线隐性鼻骨骨折的诊断，并可明确鼻骨骨折的类型、范围和程度，为临床诊断和治疗提供可靠的依据。     

辽宁省数字化地震前兆数据库的建立

地震前兆数据一直是地震分析预报必不可少的重要数据资源。随着辽宁省地震前兆台站数字化技术改造的开展，地震前兆模拟记录将逐步被数字化记录所取代。我们结合数字化技术改造的实际情况，采用先进的网络关系数据库模型构造了辽宁省数字地震前兆数据库。该数据库直接面向整个地震系统，为地震预报提供详实的数据服务和先进的研究手段。本文对数据库系统、数据库总体设计及数据共享服务也进行了深入研究和讨论。     

A general model for estimating actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces

Based on energy balance equation and mass transfer equation, a general model to estimate actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces was derived. Making use of two concepts, “relative evaporation” and “relative drying power”, a relationship was established to account for the departure from saturated conditions. Using this model, the actual evaporation (evapotranspiration) can be calculated without the need of potential evaporation estimation. Furthermore, the model requires only a few meteorological parameters that are readily and routinely obtainable at standard weather stations. Based on nearly 30 years data of 432 meteorological stations and 512 hydrological stations in China, in combined with GIS, nine typical river basins were selected. Using the data of the selected river basins, the model was tested. The results show that the actual evaporation rate can be estimated with an error of less than 10% in most areas of China, except few years in the Yellow River Basin.     

成都市农业区划与城市生态环境保护构想

扼要介绍了成都市区域土壤多目标地球化学调查的新近展，从地球化学和农业生态的角度论述了成都市农业区划发展构想，并探讨人工生态系统与城市生态环保建设的模式与构想建议。