基于客观分析的多源卫星叶绿素a浓度产品融合方法研究

本文基于Aqua/MODIS、Terra/MODIS和Envisat/MERIS多源卫星叶绿素a浓度产品,研究了客观分析融合方法,制作了西北太平洋海域(0°~50°N,100°~150°E)叶绿素a浓度融合产品,并从有效数据空间覆盖率和产品精度两个方面对融合方法进行了评价。与单传感器以及欧洲太空局发布的GSM模型业务化融合产品相比,客观分析融合产品空间覆盖率明显提高;与收集的2002-2012年间叶绿素a浓度实测数据比较,GSM模型业务化融合产品的匹配数据点为578个,偏差为-0.20 mg/m3,均方根误差为0.37 mg/m3,客观分析法融合产品的匹配数据点为1432个,偏差为-0.21 mg/m3,均方根误差为0.36 mg/m3。结果表明:本文研究的客观分析融合方法在保证融合产品精度的同时可显著提高产品的空间覆盖率,在海洋水色融合应用前景广阔。     

CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

基于观测和再分析资料;利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征;但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海;集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上;与观测数据对比;模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势;从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明;ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下;未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势;最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃;净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。     

Solar-, monsoon- and Kuroshio-influenced thermocline depth and sea surface salinity in the southern Okinawa Trough during the past 17,300 years

Factors influencing millennial-scale variability in the thermocline depth (vertical mixing) and sea surface salinity (SSS) of the southern Okinawa Trough (OT) during the past 17,300 years were investigated based on foraminifer oxygen isotope records of the surface dweller Globigerinoides ruber sensu stricto and the thermocline dweller Pulleniatina obliquiloculata in the AMS ¹⁴C dated OKT-3 core. The thermocline depth is influenced by surface thermal buoyancy (heat) flux, in turn controlled by the annual mean insolation at 30°N and the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Strong insolation and weak EAWM tend to increase buoyancy gain (decrease buoyancy loss), corresponding to shallow thermocline depths, and vice versa. Regional SSS is influenced by the global ice volume, the Kuroshio Current (KC), and vertical mixing. A deep thermocline coincides with a high SSS because strong vertical mixing brings more, saltier subsurface KC water to the surface, and vice versa. Local SSS (excluding the global ice volume effect) became lower in the northern OT than in the southern OT after ~9.2 ka, implying that Changjiang diluted water had stronger influence in the northern sector. SSS show no major changes during the Bølling/Allerød and Younger Dryas events, probably because the KC disturbed the North Atlantic signals. This argues against earlier interpretations of sea surface temperature records of this core. Wavelet and spectral analyses of the Δδ¹⁸O_P-G (δ¹⁸O of P. obliquiloculata minus G. ruber s.s.) and δ¹⁸O_local records display 1,540-, 1,480-, 1,050-, 860-, 640-, and 630-year periods. These are consistent with published evidence of a pervasive periodicity of 1,500 years in global climate as well as EAWM and KC signatures, and a fundamental solar periodicity of 1,000 years and intermediary derived periodicity of 700 years.     

Factors driving riverbed scouring and sedimentation in the Bayangaole to Toudaoguai reaches of the Upper Yellow River

The Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River face problems of severe sedimentation caused by a variety of complex factors. The sedimentation process in those reaches has been characterized using the sediment balance method, and the key factors affecting the process have been analyzed using the correlation analysis method. The results show that during the period 1952–2012 the Bayangaole (Bayan Gol) to Toudaoguai reaches in Inner Mongolia have undergone successive processes of accumulative sedimentation, then relative balance, and then accumulative sedimentation once again. The total annual sedimentation is 12.0341×10⁸ m³, of which accumulations from July to October account for 95.1% and the reaches from Sanhuhekou to Toudaoguai account for 98.5%. The main factor affecting scouring and sedimentation of the Bayangaole to Sanhuhekou reaches is the combined water and sediment condition. The critical conditions for equilibrium are an incoming sediment coefficient < 0.007 kg·s·m^–6 and a flow discharge > 700 m³·s^–1. The main factor affecting scouring and sedimentation of the Sanhuhekou to Toudaoguai reaches is the incoming sediment from the tributaries on the south bank and the combined water and sediment condition of the main stream. The critical conditions of the main stream for maintaining equilibrium status are a flow discharge of the main stream exceeding 800 m³·s^–1 and a comprehensive incoming sediment coefficient < 0.005 kg·s·m^–6. The incoming sediment from the tributaries has little impact on the main stream when the annual sediment load is less than 0.1×10⁸ t. The incoming sediment coefficient of the main stream and the incoming sediment from the tributaries both play vital roles in the riverbed evolution of the Inner Mongolia reaches, but the latter contributes the most.     

Degrading river network due to urbanization in Yangtze River Delta

Evolution of river systems under the background of human activities has been a heated topic among geographers and hydrologists. Spatial and temporal variations of river systems during the 1960s–2010s in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) were investigated based on streams derived from the topographic maps in the 1960s, 1980s and 2010s. A list of indices, drainage density (Dd), water surface ratio (WSR), ratio of area to length of main streams (R), evolution coefficient of tributaries (K) and box dimension (D), were classified into three types (quantitative, structural, and complex indices) and used to quantify the variations of stream structure. Results showed that: (1) quantitative indices (Dd, WSR) presented decreasing trend in the past 50 years, and Dd in Wuchengxiyu, Hangjiahu and Yindongnan have decreased most, about 20%. Structurally, the Qinhuai River basin was characterized by significant upward R, and K value in Hangjiahu went down dramatically by 46.8% during the 1960s–2010s. Decreasing tendency in D was found dominating across the YRD, and decreasing magnitude in Wuchengxiyu and Hangjiahu peaks for 7.8% and 6.5%, respectively in the YRD. (2) Urbanization affected the spatial pattern of river system, and areas with high level of urbanization exhibited least Dd (2.18 km/km²), WSR (6.52%), K (2.64) and D (1.42), compared to moderate and low levels of urbanization. (3) Urbanization also affected the evolution of stream system. In the past 50 years, areas with high level of urbanization showed compelling decreasing tendency in quantitative (27.2% and 19.3%) and complex indices (4.9%) and trend of enlarging of main rivers (4.5% and 7.9% in periods of the 1960s–1980s and the 1980s–2010s). In the recent 30 years, areas with low level of urbanization were detected with significant downward trend in Dd and K. (4) Expanding of urban land, construction of hydraulic engineering and irrigation and water conservancy activities were the main means which degraded the river system in the YRD.     

Task-oriented information value measurement based on space-time prisms

Recent years have witnessed a large increase in the amount of information available from the Web and many other sources. Such an information deluge presents a challenge for individuals who have to identify useful information items to complete particular tasks in hand. Information value theory (IVT) from economics and artificial intelligence has provided some guidance on this issue. However, existing IVT studies often focus on monetary values, while ignoring the spatiotemporal properties which can play important roles in everyday tasks. In this paper, we propose a theoretical framework for task-oriented information value measurement. This framework integrates IVT with the space-time prism from time geography and measures the value of information based on its impact on an individual’s space-time prisms and its capability of improving task planning. We develop and formalize this framework by extending the utility function from space-time accessibility studies and elaborate it using a simplified example from time geography. We conduct a simulation on a real-world transportation network using the proposed framework. Our research could be applied to improving information display on small-screen mobile devices (e.g., smartwatches) by assigning priorities to different information items.     

Experimental study of motion characteristics of rock slopes with weak intercalation under seismic excitation

In order to investigate the effect of a weak intercalation on slope stability, a large-scale shaking table model test was conducted to study the dynamic response of rock slope models with weak intercalation. The dynamic response of the prototype slopes were studied in laboratory with the consideration of law of similitude. The initiation failure was observed in the rock slope model with a counter-tilt thin-weak intercalation firstly, not in the slope model with a horizontal thin-weak intercalation. Furthermore, it was interesting that the fracture site is shifted from crest top to the slope surface near the weak intercalation, which is different with the location of failure position in a normal layered slope. We also discussed the effect of the dip angle and the thickness of weak intercalation on the failure mechanism and instability mode of the layered rock slope. From the experimental result, it was noted that the stability of the slope with a counter-tilt weak intercalation could be worse than that of the other slopes under seismic excitation. The findings showed the difference of failure in slopes with a horizontal and counter weak intercalation, and implicated the further evaluation of failure of layered slopes caused by seismic loads.     

Livelihood changes and evolution of upland ethnic communities driven by tourism: a case study in Guizhou Province,southwest China

As an effective livelihood approach to alleviate poverty without rural population migration, ethnic tourism has become the primary choice of economic development in ethnic areas worldwide in addition to traditional livelihood approaches. This article applies the theories of livelihood to study the community evolution driven by tourism livelihood and examine three mountainous tourism communities in different stages of tourist area life cycle. Drawing on the methods of GIS spatial analysis, semi-structured interviews and questionnaires, this article proposes a sustainable livelihood framework for ethnic tourism to explore the evolution of ethnic tourism communities by identifying changes in livelihood assets (natural, financial, social, cultural and human capitals) in the process of tourism development. The results show that the development of ethnic tourism has led to changes in the increase of building land, and the diversification of land use functions with a trend of shifting from meeting local villagers' living needs to satisfying tourists, income composition and uneven distribution of tourism income spatially. Ethnic tourism also led to the deterioration of traditional social management structure, collapse of neighboring relationship, the over- commercialization and staged authenticity of ethnic culture, as well as the gradual vanish of agricultural knowledge with a trend of increasing modern business knowledge and higher education. In addition, these changes, involving livelihood assets from natural, economic, human, social and cultural aspects are interrelated and interactive, which form new evolution characters of ethnic community. This study reveals the conflicts over livelihood approaches which have formed new vulnerabilities to impact on sustainable evolution of ethnic communities. This research provides implications for achieving the sustainable development of ethnic communities with the driving force of tourism livelihood.     

Non-capacity transport of non-uniform bed load sediment in alluvial rivers

Rivers often witness non-uniform bed load sediment transport. For a long time, non-uniform bed load transport has been assumed to be at capacity regime determined exclusively by local flow. Yet whether the capacity assumption for non-uniform bed load transport is justified remains poorly understood. Here, the relative time scale of non-uniform bed load transport is evaluated and non-capacity and capacity models are compared for both aggradation and degradation cases with observed data. As characterized by its relative time scale, the adaptation of non-uniform bed load to capacity regime should be fulfilled quickly. However, changes in the flow and sediment inputs from upstream or tributaries hinder the adaptation. Also, the adaptation to capacity regime is size dependent, the finer the sediment size the slower the adaptation is, and vice versa. It is shown that the capacity model may entail considerable errors compared to the non-capacity model. For modelling of non-uniform bed load, noncapacity modelling is recommended, in which the temporal and spatial scales required for adaptation are explicitly appreciated.