Enhanced identification of a hydrologic model using streamflow and satellite water storage data: A multicriteria sensitivity analysis and optimization approach

Hydrologic model development and calibration have continued in most cases to focus only on accurately reproducing streamflows. However, complex models, for example, the so‐called physically based models, possess large degrees of freedom that, if not constrained properly, may lead to poor model performance when used for prediction. We argue that constraining a model to represent streamflow, which is an integrated resultant of many factors across the watershed, is necessary but by no means sufficient to develop a high‐fidelity model. To address this problem, we develop a framework to utilize the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment's (GRACE) total water storage anomaly data as a supplement to streamflows for model calibration, in a multiobjective setting. The VARS method (Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces) for global sensitivity analysis is used to understand the model behaviour with respect to streamflow and GRACE data, and the BORG multiobjective optimization method is applied for model calibration. Two subbasins of the Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada are used as a case study. Results show that the developed framework is superior to the conventional approach of calibration only to streamflows, even when multiple streamflow‐based error functions are simultaneously minimized. It is shown that a range of (possibly false) system trajectories in state variable space can lead to similar (acceptable) model responses. This observation has significant implications for land‐surface and hydrologic model development and, if not addressed properly, may undermine the credibility of the model in prediction. The framework effectively constrains the model behaviour (by constraining posterior parameter space) and results in more credible representation of hydrology across the watershed.     

Hydrological responses to climatic variability in a cold agricultural region

Extended severe dry and wet periods are frequently observed in the northern continental climate of the Canadian Prairies. Prairie streamflow is mainly driven by spring snowmelt of the winter snowpack, whilst summer rainfall is an important control on evapotranspiration and thus seasonality affects the hydrological response to drought and wet periods in complex ways. A field‐tested physically based model was used to investigate the influences of climatic variability on hydrological processes in this region. The model was set up to resolve agricultural fields and to include key cold regions processes. It was parameterized from local and regional measurements without calibration and run for the South Tobacco Creek basin in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model was tested against snow depth and streamflow observations at multiple scales and performed well enough to explore the impacts of wet and dry periods on hydrological processes governing the basin scale hydrological response. Four hydro‐climatic patterns with distinctive climatic seasonality and runoff responses were identified from differing combinations of wet/dry winter and summer seasons. Water balance analyses of these patterns identified substantive multiyear subsurface soil moisture storage depletion during drought (2001–2005) and recharge during a subsequent wet period (2009–2011). The fractional percentage of heavy rainfall days was a useful metric to explain the contrasting runoff volumes between dry and wet summers. Finally, a comparison of modeling approaches highlights the importance of antecedent fall soil moisture, ice lens formation during the snowmelt period, and peak snow water equivalent in simulating snowmelt runoff.     

Measurement of Kodaikanal White-Light Images – II. Rotation Comparison and Merging with Mount Wilson Data

Sunspot umbral positions and areas were measured for 82 years (1906–1987) of daily, full-disk photoheliogram observations at the Kodaikanal station of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics. The measurement technique and reduction procedures used were nearly identical to those used earlier for the reduction of Mount Wilson daily full-disk photoheliograms, covering an overlapping interval of 69 years. In this paper we compare the differential rotation of the Sun from the analysis of the Kodaikanal data with the Mount Wilson results. In addition, we analyze the data set formed by combining the data from the two sites for differential rotation. While doing this, it has become apparent to us that small, subtle optical effects at both sites produce systematic errors that have an influence on rotation (and other) results from these data. These optical effects are analyzed here, and corrections are made to the positional data of the sunspots from both sites. A data set containing the combined positional data of sunspots from both sites, corrected for these optical aberrations, has been constructed. Results for both sunspot groups and individual sunspots are presented. It is pointed out that optical aberrations similar to those found in the Kodaikanal data may also exist in the Greenwich photoheliograph data, because these two sets of solar images were made with similar telescopes.     

Multicriteria sensitivity analysis as a diagnostic tool for understanding model behaviour and characterizing model uncertainty

Complex hydrological models are being increasingly used nowadays for many purposes such as studying the impact of climate and land‐use change on water resources. However, building a high‐fidelity model, particularly at large scales, remains a challenging task, due to complexities in model functioning and behaviour and uncertainties in model structure, parameterization, and data. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA), which characterizes how the variation in the model response is attributed to variations in its input factors (e.g., parameters and forcing data), provides an opportunity to enhance the development and application of these complex models. In this paper, we advocate using GSA as an integral part of the modelling process by discussing its capabilities as a tool for diagnosing model structure and detecting potential defects, identifying influential factors, characterizing uncertainty, and selecting calibration parameters. Accordingly, we conduct a comprehensive GSA of a complex land surface–hydrology model, Modélisation Environmentale–Surface et Hydrologie (MESH), which combines the Canadian land surface scheme with a hydrological routing component, WATROUTE. Various GSA experiments are carried out using a new technique, called Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces, for alternative hydroclimatic conditions in Canada using multiple criteria, various model configurations, and a full set of model parameters. Results from this study reveal that, in addition to different hydroclimatic conditions and SA criteria, model configurations can also have a major impact on the assessment of sensitivity. GSA can identify aspects of the model internal functioning that are counter‐intuitive and thus help the modeller to diagnose possible model deficiencies and make recommendations for improving development and application of the model. As a specific outcome of this work, a list of the most influential parameters for the MESH model is developed. This list, along with some specific recommendations, is expected to assist the wide community of MESH and Canadian land surface scheme users, to enhance their modelling applications.     

Re-inscribing the urban abject: Ngai Tahu and the Gothic Revival

Abstract:   The 1960s, in Fredric Jameson's analysis, saw a radical re-formulation of global imperialism, with pockets of the 'third world' being incorporated into the first (Jameson 1991, p. 128). On a local level, this implied for colonized peoples a re-negotiation of social space in the face of urbanization. One culture's civilizing mission becomes another's grid of control, resulting in ghettoization, the marginalization of 'abject zones' where the visibility of the clean and proper city is suspended. This paper examines the case of Christchurch, where the garden as an index to civility becomes a paradoxical veneer in the face of biculturalism and decolonization.     

Post-Palaeozoic evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda by tectonically controlled deep weathering and stripping

A model for the evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda is developed using available geotectonic, climatic, sedimentological and chronological data. The model demonstrates the pivotal role of tectonic uplift in inducing cycles of stripping, and tectonic quiescence for cycles of deep weathering. It is able to account for the development of key landforms, such as inselbergs and duricrust-capped plateaux, which previous hypotheses of landscape evolution that are based on climatic or eustatic controls are unable to explain. Development of the Ugandan landscape is traced back to the Permian. Following late Palaeozoic glaciation, a trend towards warmer and more humid climates through the Mesozoic enabled deep weathering of the Jurassic/mid-Cretaceous surface in Uganda during a period of prolonged tectonic quiescence. Uplift associated with the opening South Atlantic Ocean terminated this cycle and instigated a cycle of stripping between the mid-Cretaceous and early Miocene. Deep weathering on the succeeding Miocene to recent (African) surface has occurred from Miocene to present but has been interrupted in the areas adjacent to the western rift where development of a new drainage base level has prompted cycles of stripping in the Miocene and Pleistocene.     

Measuring Community and University Impacts of Critical Civic Geography: Insights from Chicago

Geographers have increasingly adopted community-based learning and research into their teaching and scholarly activities since Bunge and Harvey called for an applied public geography that is both useful and challenges societal inequalities. With few exceptions, however, there has been little discussion of methods for measuring this work. Many published assessments focus on the impacts of projects on students but overlook the impacts on community partners. Impacts on faculty and the larger university community are also often ignored. This article discusses literature on the evaluation of community–university research and service learning from a critical perspective. A discussion of service learning and community-based research (CBR) projects at two Chicago universities, DePaul and Chicago State, is presented. In both cases challenges were encountered to achieve full evaluation of projects, yet both included an evaluation of university and community partners that allowed for assessment of the projects’ value to all partners.     

Book reviews

THE IMPACT OF VOLCANIC HAZARDS AT RABAUL, PAPUA NEW GUINEA (Discussion Paper No. 33) by R. J. Blong and C. Aislabie. 17 × 25 cm, xiv and 207 pages. Institute of National Affairs: Port Morseby 1988 (ISBN 9980 77 086 4).

A PRACTICAL APPROACH TO SEDIMENTOLOGY by R. C. Lindholm. 15 × 23 cm, xviii and 279 pages. Allen & Unwin: London 1987 (ISBN 0 04 551132 2) $A45.00 (soft).

THE ATMOSPHERE AND WEATHER OF SOUTHERN AFRICA by R. A. Preston‐Whyte and P. D. Tyson. 18 × 24 cm, xiii and 375 pages. Oxford University Press: Cape Town 1988 (ISBN 0 19 570 514 9) R56.00 (hard); (ISBN 0 19 570 496 7) R39.14 (soft).

QUATERNARY PALEOCLIMATOLOGY: Methods of Paleoclimatic Reconstruction by R. S. Bradley. 15 × 23 cm, xvii and 472 pages. Allen & Unwin: Boston 1985 (ISBN 0 04 551067 9) $A69.95 (hard); (ISBN 0 04 551068 7) $A39.95 (soft).

PROCESSES IN PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY by R. D. Thompson, A. M. Mannion, C. W. Mitchell, M. Parry and J. R. Townsend. 24 × 19 cm, xii and 380 pages. Longman: London 1986 (ISBN 0 582 30136) $A44.95.

PERSPECTIVES ON A DYNAMIC EARTH by T. R. Paton. 16 × 24 cm, 142 pages. Allen & Unwin: London 1986 (ISBN 0 04 55 0043 6) $A23.95 (soft).

LAND DEGRADATION AND SOCIETY edited by P. Blaikie and H. Brookfield. 15 × 23 cm. xxiv and 296 pages. Methuen: London 1987 (ISBN 0 416 40150 3) $A32.95 (soft).

THE PENGUIN DICTIONARY OF HUMAN GEOGRAPHY by B. Goodall. 13 × 20 cm, 509 pages. Penguin: Harmondsworth 1987 (ISBN 0 14 051095 8) $A19.95 (soft).

MAKING SENSE OF DEVELOPMENT: An Introduction to Classical and Contemporary Theories of Development and Their Application to South‐east Asia by P. W. Preston. 14 × 22 cm, xxi and 318 pages. Routledge & Kegan Paul: London 1986 (ISBN 0 7102 0813 8) $A87.95 (hard).

THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIMENSION IN INDONESIAN DEVELOPMENT by G. J. Hugo, T. H. Hull, V. J. Hull and G. W. Jones. 16 × 25 cm, xxv and 417 pages. Oxford University Press: Singapore 1987 (ISBN 0 19 582699 X) $A49.95 (hard).

GLOBAL ISSUES AND OUTLOOK IN PULP AND PAPER edited by G. F. Schreuder, 18 × 26 cm, ix and 302 pages. University of Washington Press: Seattle 1988 (ISBN 0 295 96642 4) $US40.00 (hard).

AN HISTORICAL GEOGRAPHY OF MODERN AUSTRALIA: The Restive Fringe (Cambridge Studies in Historical Geography No. 11) by J. M. Powell. 16 × 33 cm, xx and 400 pages. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge 1988 (ISBN 0 521 25619 4) $A39.95 (hard).

HISTORICAL GEOGRAPHY: Progress and Prospect edited by M. Pacione. 14 × 22 cm, 306 pages. Croom Helm: London 1987 (ISBN 0 7099 40467) $A27.50 (hard).

THE ROLE OF THEORY IN URBAN PLANNING: A Study of Metropolitan Planning in Perth, Western Australia (Geowest No. 24) by O. Yiftachel. 21 × 29 cm, 102 pages. Department of Geography, University of Western Australia: Nedlands 1987 (ISBN 0 86422 063 4).

SYDNEY INTO ITS THIRD CENTURY: Metropolitan Strategy for the Sydney Region by NSW Department of Environment and Planning. 21 × 29 cm, 72 pages. NSW department of Environment and Planning: Sydney 1988 (ISBN 0 7305 4312 9).

BUS SERVICES IN WESTERN SYDNEY: Private Bus Operators and Government Transport Departments (Monograph Series No. 3) by P. Tranter. 21 × 29 cm, v and 98 pages. Department of Geography and Oceanography, University College, Australian Defence Force Academy: Campbell, ACT 1988 (ISBN 0 7317 0036 8).

AGEING IN VICTORIA: An Electronic Social Atlas by A. L. Howe, P. Newton and P. Sharwood. 30 × 21 cm, 105 pages. National Research Institute for Gerontology and Geriatric Medicine, Mt. Royal Hospital and University of Melbourne: Melbourne 1987 (ISBN 0 958326 6 2) $A10.00 (soft).

READINGS IN AUSTRALIAN GEOGRAPHY: Proceedings of the 21st Institute of Australian Geographers’ Conference, Perth 10–18 May 1986, edited by A. Conacher. 21 × 29 cm, vi and 493 pages. Institute of Australian Geographers (WA Branch) and Department of Geography, University of Western Australia: Perth 1987 (ISBN 0 909678 30 B) $A25.00 (soft).

GEOGRAPHY RESEARCH PROJECTS: A Senior Student's Handbook by H. Binden and H. Williams. 18 × 26 cm, 149 pages. Edward Arnold Australia: Caulfield East 1988 (ISBN 0 7131 8311 X) $A 14.95 (soft).

OUR AMERICAN LAND: 1987 Yearbook of Agriculture, ix and 323 pages. US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC: 1987 $US9.50.

THE ENCYCLOPAEDIC DICTIONARY OF PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY edited by A. Goudie et al. 17 × 24 cm, xvi and 528 pages. Basil Black‐well: Oxford 1988 (ISBN 0 631 15581 3) $A34.95 (soft).

THE CONSERVATION OF ECOSYSTEMS AND SPECIES by Gareth E. Jones, 14 × 22 cm, 277 pages. Croom Helm: London 1987 (ISBN 0 7099 1463 6) $A87.95 (hard).

SO CAME THEY SOUTH by R. Clancy and A. Richardson. 35 × 35 cm, 176 pages. Shakespeare Head: Sydney 1988 (ISBN 0 7302 0864 8) $A34.95.     

Mineral inclusions in diamonds from the Kelsey Lake Mine, Colorado, USA: Depleted Archean mantle beneath the Proterozoic Yavapai province

Thirty-four silicate and oxide inclusions large enough for in situ WDS electron microprobe analysis were exposed by grinding/polishing of 19 diamonds from the Kelsey Lake Mine in the Colorado-Wyoming State Line Kimberlite district. Eighteen olivines, seven Cr-pyropes, four Mg-chromites, and one orthopyroxene in 15 stones belong to the peridotite (P) suite and three garnets and one omphacite in three stones belong to the eclogite (E) suite. The fact that this suite is dominated by the peridotite population is in stark contrast to the other diamond suites studied in the State Line district (Sloan, George Creek), which are overwhelmingly eclogitic. Kelsey Lake olivine inclusions are magnesian (17 of 18 grains in 9 stones are in the range Fo 92.7-93.1), typical of harzburgitic P-suite stones worldwide, but unlike the more Fe-rich (lherzolitic) Sloan olivine suite. Mg-chromites (wt% MgO = 12.8-13.8; wt% Cr₂O₃ = 61.4-66.6) are in the lower MgO range of diamond inclusion chromites worldwide. Seven harzburgitic Cr-pyropes in five stones have moderately low calcium contents (wt% CaO = 3.3-4.3) but are very Cr-rich (wt% Cr₂O₃ = 9.7-16.7). A few stones have been analyzed by SIMS for carbon isotope composition and nitrogen abundance. One peridotitic stone is apparently homogeneous in carbon isotope composition (δ¹³C_PDB = −6.2‰) but with variable nitrogen abundance (1296-2550 ppm). Carbon isotopes in eclogitic stones range from “normal” for the upper mantle (δ¹³C_PDB = −5.5‰) to somewhat low (δ¹³C_PDB = −10.2‰), with little internal variation in individual stones (maximum difference is 3.6‰). Nitrogen contents (2-779 ppm) are lower than in the peridotitic stone, and are lower in cores than in rims. As, worldwide, harzburgite-suite diamonds have been shown to have formed in Archean time, we suggest that the Kelsey Lake diamond population was derived from a block of Archean lithosphere that, at the time of kimberlite eruption, existed beneath the Proterozoic Yavapai province. The mixed diamond inclusion populations from the State Line kimberlites appear to support models in which volumes of Wyoming Craton Archean mantle survive buried beneath Proterozoic continental crust. Such material may be mixed with eclogitic/lherzolitic regimes emplaced beneath or intermingled with the Archean rocks by Proterozoic subduction.     

Implications of recent numerical calculations for the fission theory of the origin of the Moon

Recent numerical simulations of fission instabilities in rotating fluid masses give results which are consistent with some requirements of the fission hypothesis for the origin of the moon.