Enhanced identification of a hydrologic model using streamflow and satellite water storage data: A multicriteria sensitivity analysis and optimization approach

Hydrologic model development and calibration have continued in most cases to focus only on accurately reproducing streamflows. However, complex models, for example, the so‐called physically based models, possess large degrees of freedom that, if not constrained properly, may lead to poor model performance when used for prediction. We argue that constraining a model to represent streamflow, which is an integrated resultant of many factors across the watershed, is necessary but by no means sufficient to develop a high‐fidelity model. To address this problem, we develop a framework to utilize the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment's (GRACE) total water storage anomaly data as a supplement to streamflows for model calibration, in a multiobjective setting. The VARS method (Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces) for global sensitivity analysis is used to understand the model behaviour with respect to streamflow and GRACE data, and the BORG multiobjective optimization method is applied for model calibration. Two subbasins of the Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada are used as a case study. Results show that the developed framework is superior to the conventional approach of calibration only to streamflows, even when multiple streamflow‐based error functions are simultaneously minimized. It is shown that a range of (possibly false) system trajectories in state variable space can lead to similar (acceptable) model responses. This observation has significant implications for land‐surface and hydrologic model development and, if not addressed properly, may undermine the credibility of the model in prediction. The framework effectively constrains the model behaviour (by constraining posterior parameter space) and results in more credible representation of hydrology across the watershed.     

Strain analysis of a seismically imaged mass‐transport complex,offshore Uruguay

Strain style, magnitude and distribution within mass‐transport complexes (MTCs) are important for understanding the process evolution of submarine mass flows and for estimating their runout distances. Structural restoration and quantification of strain in gravitationally driven passive margins have been shown to approximately balance between updip extensional and downdip contractional domains; such an exercise has not yet been attempted for MTCs. We here interpret and structurally restore a shallowly buried (c. 1,500 mbsf) and well‐imaged MTC, offshore Uruguay using a high‐resolution (12.5 m vertical and 15 × 12.5 m horizontal resolution) three‐dimensional seismic‐reflection survey. This allows us to characterise and quantify vertical and lateral strain distribution within the deposit. Detailed seismic mapping and attribute analysis shows that the MTC is characterised by a complicated array of kinematic indicators, which vary spatially in style and concentration. Seismic‐attribute extractions reveal several previously undocumented fabrics preserved in the MTC, including internal shearing in the form of sub‐orthogonal shear zones, and fold‐thrust systems within the basal shear zone beneath rafted‐blocks. These features suggest multiple transport directions and phases of flow during emplacement. The MTC is characterised by a broadly tripartite strain distribution, with extensional (e.g. normal faults), translational and contractional (e.g. folds and thrusts) domains, along with a radial frontally emergent zone. We also show how strain is preferentially concentrated around intra‐MTC rafted‐blocks due to their kinematic interactions with the underlying basal shear zone. Overall, and even when volume loss within the frontally emergent zone is included, a strain difference between extension (1.6–1.9 km) and contraction (6.7–7.3 km) is calculated. We attribute this to a combination of distributed, sub‐seismic, ‘cryptic’ strain, likely related to de‐watering, grain‐scale deformation and related changes in bulk sediment volume. This work has implications for assessing MTCs strain distribution and provides a practical approach for evaluating structural interpretations within such deposits.     

Pfiesteria shumwayae (Pfiesteriaceae) in New Zealand

Pfiesteria shumwayae Steidinger et Burkholder is now known to be present in New Zealand and occurs in estuaries around the country. The presence of Pfiesteria was initially determined by a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)‐based detection assay, using oligonucleotide primers targeted at ribosomal DNA extracted from estuarine water and sediments. Presence was confirmed by isolation from fresh sediments in the presence offish (Oreochromis mossambicus), followed by identification by scanning electron microscopy. The New Zealand isolates of P. shumwayae were ichthyotoxic in bioassays, but there is no historic evidence offish kills in New Zealand associated with the dinoflagellate.     

Field calibration of a formula for entrance mixing of river inflows to lakes: Lake Taupo,North Island,New Zealand

Field measurements were used to validate predictions for the initial dilution of negatively buoyant, cold‐water inflows to Lake Taupo, as part of a study to quantify mixing processes associated with the two largest inflows to the lake. The predictions were made using a formulation originally derived for positively buoyant, warm‐water inflows to cooling ponds. The formulation predicts the total dilution of an inflow during its inertia‐dominated phase between its entrance to the lake and the point where buoyancy forces are great enough to cause the inflow to plunge and form a submerged density current. In one of the measured inflows, the inflowing jet was free to entrain from both sides; in the other, entrainment was restricted on one side by attachment of the inflowing jet to the shoreline of a bay just upstream of the plunge point. In the former example, the unmodified coefficients from the cooling pond formulation provided an excellent prediction of initial dilution. In the latter example, entrainment was reduced and different coefficients were derived. In both examples the inflows remained attached to the lake bed throughout their course until their liftoff at depths of 45–55 m to form interflows. The difference between coefficients for the two inflows indicates that the coefficient values should be considered site‐specific. The formulation is not valid for inflows that separate from the bottom of the inflow channel before plunging. The entrance mixing formulation was incorporated in a more general model of lake stratification, DYRESM, which already includes a well‐documented routine for routing underflows down submerged channels on the bed of a lake. Application of the model to the inflows measured in Lake Taupo gave good results for two model outputs that were not involved in the calibration of the entrance mixing formulation, but that are affected by the result of the initial dilution calculation—the temperatures in the river plume after it has plunged, and the insertion depth.     

Data-based forecasting of beach volumes on monthly to yearly timescales

Data-based methods for forecasting beach volumes are tested using ground-measured bathymetry from Duck, North Carolina, comprising 26 profiles, 20 year duration and one-month resolution. Derived beach volume time series show weak seasonal and strong event signals. The forecasting methods used are: Holt–Winters (standard and modified), three types of linear regression, and a default forecast in which the latest measurement persists unchanged into the future. Improved forecast accuracies are obtained by two modifications to Holt–Winters, involving an autocorrelation correction and long-term trend-damping, and by smoothing the fitting data using running medians or wavelet approximations. Beach volume forecasts are tested mainly at monthly intervals up to 12 months ahead, with further tests at up to 36 months ahead. Overall, modified Holt–Winters performs best and the default forecast second-best. With an added artificial seasonal signal, modified Holt–Winters outperforms the other methods more substantially.     

InSAR detection of residual settlement of an ocean reclamation engineering project: a case study of Hong Kong International Airport

Man-made land or islands that are reclaimed from the sea are suitable for building airports, harbors, and industry parks for material transportation because of their broad air and land spaces. However, the reclaimed foundation settlement process is of public concern, including the continuous impact of ocean processes on its stability. The majority of the buildings and facilities of Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) are built on a reclaimed foundation. The reclaimed foundation has been in residual settlement since completion of the filling project in 1994. In this study, we use persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) and ENVISAT (European Satellite) advanced synthetic aperture radar (ASAR) data to detect the residual settlement rates from 19 April 2006 to 9 January 2008. We use ground truth data to develop empirical correction models for correcting systematic biases in the ASAR PSI-detected settlement rates. The corrected data follow the Lorentz distribution well, implying that the residual settlement process is dominated by two modes or categories of settlement rates. The first category represents a relatively stable state and the second category represents a continuous settlement state. A ground settlement rate map of HKIA shows that an area of the Passenger Terminal Building and an area of the Southern Runway are two relatively stable areas. There are two major continuous settlement areas. One covers the airport Midfield. Another is along the coastline, implying that attention should be paid to impacts of ocean processes on the stability of airport foundations.     

Magnitude-frequency relationship of coastal sand delivery by a southern California stream

Coastal sand delivery by a stream in southern California is estimated based on a numerical model which stimulates unsteady flow, sediment transport, and the associated channel adjustments for a stream-delta system. An average annual sediment yield of 51,400 m³/yr is estimated for the San Dieguito River, which drains a semiarid watershed controlled by dams. Of the total sand delivery by the stream, 20.5 percent is contributed from floods greater than the 100-year flood; 17.6 percent from those between the 50- and 100-year events; 28.4 percent from those between the 25- and 50 year floods; and 33.5 percent from those smaller than the 25-year flood.     

Effect of Biofuels on Biodegradation of Benzene and Toluene at Gasoline Spill Sites

The risk that benzene and toluene from spills of gasoline will impact drinking water wells is largely controlled by the natural anaerobic biodegradation of benzene and toluene. Benzene and toluene, as well as ethanol and other biofuels, are degraded under anaerobic conditions to the same pool of degradation products. Biodegradation of biofuels may produce concentrations of degradation products that make the thermodynamics for degradation of benzene and toluene infeasible under methanogenic conditions and produce larger plumes of benzene and toluene. This study evaluated the concentrations of fuel alcohols that are necessary to inhibit the anaerobic degradation of benzene and toluene under methanogenic conditions. At two ethanol spill sites, concentrations of ethanol greater ≥42 mg/L inhibited the anaerobic degradation of toluene. The pH and concentrations of acetate, dissolved inorganic carbon, and molecular hydrogen were used to calculate the Gibbs free energy for the biodegradation of toluene. In general, the anaerobic biodegradation of toluene was not thermodynamically feasible in water with ≥42 mg/L ethanol. In a microcosm study, when the concentrations of ethanol were ≥14 mg/L or the concentrations of n‐butanol were ≥16 mg/L, the biodegradation of the alcohols consistently produced concentrations of hydrogen, dissolved inorganic carbon, and acetate that would preclude natural anaerobic biodegradation of benzene and toluene by syntrophic organisms. In contrast, iso‐butanol and n‐propanol only occasionally produced conditions that would preclude the biodegradation of benzene and toluene.