山西长治盆地中更新世气候转型期环境变化特征

中更新世气候转型(MPT)是第四纪环境变化的一个重要时期,该时期气候模式、气候周期等均发生了明显变化,然而不同区域对中更新世气候转型的响应特征存在明显差异.本研究选取了长治盆地XZK4钻孔中更新世转型前后(1.8～0.1 Ma)共207个样品,通过古地磁定年,运用粒度端元分析和孢粉分析,阐述了长治盆地中更新世转型期的环境变化与湖泊演化特征.结果显示,1.8 Ma以来,孢粉组合中乔木花粉含量多高于60％,但个别时段草本植物花粉占优,显示区域植被多数阶段为森林,但存在明显冷期,并且1.1 Ma和0.55 Ma是研究区环境转变的重要转折点.中更新世转型期前(～1.1 Ma):沉积物粒度总体较细,黏土含量多高于25％,EM1组分(湖相沉积)多高于60％,EM3(河流相组分)在个别时段出现,总体显示该阶段沉积物组成以湖相沉积为主,个别阶段受到河流影响大;中更新世转型时期(1.1～0.55 Ma):沉积物粒度较上一阶段更细,黏土含量(平均为30％)、EM1占比和孢粉浓度均达到研究段最高,沉积物颜色以棕灰色为主,EM3组分占比降至最低,其中1.1～0.95 Ma喜冷的云杉属花粉出现,显示该时期研究区气候总体偏冷湿,湖泊面积较1.1 Ma之前扩大;中更新世转型后(～0.55 Ma):沉积物粒度明显变粗,达到钻孔最高值,沉积物颜色变黄,EM2(风成组分)和EM3占主导,草本植物含量增加,尤其是喜干的蒿属花粉增加明显,表明气候较之前变干,沉积物类型以风力沉积为主,湖泊消亡.综合对比显示,构造运动是影响长治古湖消长的主要驱动力,气候变干加剧了湖泊消亡.     

Rapid forecasting of urban flood inundation using multiple machine learning models

Natural Hazards - Urban flood inundation is worsening as the number of short-duration rainstorms increases, and it is difficult to accurately predict urban flood inundation over a long lead time;...     

Study on Monitoring Technology of Surrounding Rock in Deep Layered Roadway Based on Constant Resistance and Large Deformation Bolt

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - The stability monitoring of surrounding rock in layered roadway is an important method to ensure the safety of deep mining coal mine. In view of the actual...     

黔中隆起北缘五峰-龙马溪组页岩元素地球化学特征及其地质意义

为探讨黔中隆起北缘五峰—龙马溪组富有机质页岩的沉积环境和物源区背景,对区内两口井的样品进行了有机碳含量、微量元素和稀土元素地球化学测试和分析.结果表明,研究区五峰—龙马溪组页岩在沉积时以贫氧—厌氧环境为主,富氧环境也偶尔存在,且龙马溪组沉积水体还原程度比五峰组高.La_N/Yb_N值的变化反映沉积速率为:龙马溪组下部 < 五峰组 < 观音桥段,表明五峰—龙马溪组页岩沉积时存在沉积速率先变快后变缓的过程.Mo/TOC值显示五峰组页岩沉积时盆地滞留程度较强,进入志留纪相对减弱,盆地滞留程度对有机质富集的正向影响可能不大,海平面升降造成的氧化还原条件以及生产力条件的变化或许控制了有机质的富集.微量和稀土元素组合及比值特征,反映研究区五峰—龙马溪组沉积时的原始物质来自上地壳,五峰组沉积时存在混合物源,而龙马溪组沉积时物源相对单一,总体上源岩以长英质（花岗岩）为主.源区构造背景以主动大陆边缘为主,受到一定热液活动的影响,同时也表现出一定的大陆岛弧构造背景的特征.      

基于孔压静力触探的岩土参数正态性检验方法对比

岩土参数的正态分布是岩土工程可靠分析的基本假定之一。目前,岩土工程参数的正态性检验以KS （Kolmogorov-Smirnov）检验为主,然而诸多研究表明,对于小样本数据,KS检验的正态性检验结果并不可靠。本文以废黄河泛滥沉积相粉土中的孔压静力触探（CPTU）锥尖阻力q_t数据为研究对象,首先采用ANOVA （方差分析）检验,从CPTU测试资料中进行总体的样本筛选,然后应用SW （Shapiro-Wilk）检验、KS检验、LF （Lilliefors）检验和AD （Anderson-Darling）检验等4种正态性检验方法,在不同样本容量条件下,对测试数据进行正态性检验评价。当测试数据的样本容量充足时,分析结果表明：SW检验结果最为严格,KS检验结果最不保守,而LF检验和AD检验的严格性介于两者之间;对于常规岩土工程设计,采用KS检验结果即可满足稳定性分析要求,对于复杂岩土工程设计,采用SW检验对设计参数进行正态性检验,可降低设计的不确定性。     

冀东峪耳崖金矿区闪长岩脉地球化学特征及其地质意义

冀东地区位于华北板块北缘燕山造山带东部,矿产资源丰富,是中国金矿的主要产地之一,尤其是热液型金矿。峪耳崖金矿床是冀东众多热液型金矿床的典型代表,金矿主体赋存于侏罗纪峪耳崖花岗岩体内,少部分赋存于侵入花岗岩体的侏罗纪闪长岩脉中。闪长岩脉元素地球化学分析显示：w（SiO₂）为51.99%~61.88%、Mg^#值为0.37~0.64,w（Na₂O+K₂O）为5.07%~8.89%,A/NK为1.37~2.26,A/CNK为0.73~0.96,属准铝质高钾钙碱性系列;富集轻稀土元素和大离子亲石元素Rb、Ba、K、Sr,亏损重稀土元素和高场强元素Nb、Ta、Ti。锆石原位Hf同位素测试表明,ε_Hf（t）为负值,介于-16.5~-6.5之间。综合研究认为：峪耳崖金矿区侏罗纪闪长岩浆源于俯冲流体交代的富集岩石圈地幔,岩浆上侵过程中受到华北板块古老下地壳物质的有限混染;成矿期闪长岩浆为金成矿提供了部分物质来源;峪耳崖金矿区闪长岩脉形成于古太平洋板块向欧亚大陆俯冲的动力学背景。     

Numerical simulation and evaluation of the fracturing and tight gas production with a new dimensionless fracture conductivity (FCD) model

Hydraulic fracturing is an essential technology for the development of unconventional resources such as tight gas. The evaluation of the fracture performance and productivity is important for the design of fracturing operations. However, the traditional dimensionless fracture conductivity is too simple to be applied in real fracturing operations. In this work, we proposed a new model of dimensionless fracture conductivity (F_CD), which considers the irregular fracture geometry, proppant position and concentration. It was based on the numerical study of the multistage hydraulic fracturing and production in a tight gas horizontal well of the North German Basin. A self-developed full 3D hydraulic fracturing model, FLAC3D^plus, was combined with a sensitive/reliability analysis and robust design optimization tool optiSLang and reservoir simulator TMVOCMP to achieve an automatic history matching as well as simulation of the gas production. With this tool chain, the four fracturing stages were history matched. The simulation results show that all four fractures have different geometry and proppant distribution, which is mainly due to different stress states and injection schedule. The position and concentration of the proppant play important roles for the later production, which is not considered in the traditional dimensionless fracture conductivity F_CD. In comparison, the newly proposed formulation of F_CD could predict the productivity more accurately and is better for the posttreatment evaluation.

     

国内外CO2地质封存潜力评价方法研究现状

碳捕集与封存(Carbon Capture and Storage,CCS)技术作为缓解全球气候变暖、减少CO₂排放的有效路径之一,其潜力评估至关重要。目前CCS技术主要包括CO₂强化石油(天然气)开采封存技术、CO₂驱替煤层气封存技术以及咸水层CO₂封存技术3类。各类封存技术利用了不同的封存机制,其潜力评估方法也略有差别。油气藏封存和咸水层封存主要利用了构造圈闭储存、束缚空间储存、溶解储存、矿化储存等封存机制,煤层气封存主要利用了吸附封存机制。国内外学者和机构针对各类封存技术提出了相应的计算方法,依据其计算原理可归纳为4类: 物质平衡封存量计算法、有效容积封存量计算法、溶解机制封存量计算法以及考虑多种捕获机制的综合封存量计算法。通过对各类经典方法及其计算原理进行综述,剖析潜力封存量计算方法的内涵原理和应用场景,分析了CO₂地质封存潜力评价方法在实际应用中面临的问题,有助于提升我国的CCS潜力评价质量。     

两次强降水过程雨滴谱特征及差异

利用寿县观测站内的Parsivel激光雨滴谱仪结合观测站雨量数据及雷达基数据,分析了发生在2015年6月26—30日梅雨期间和2015年8月7—10日超强台风"苏迪罗"影响期间2次强降水过程的雨滴谱结构特征及其差异,拟合了雨强与雷达反射率因子之间的关系。结果表明:雨强的大小直接影响雨滴谱的特征参量,且随着雨强增大而增大;梅雨锋暴雨中1.0mm直径≤1.5mm的粒子所占比例最多,雨强贡献率最大;台风雨中0.75mm直径≤1.0mm的粒子所占比例最多,但1.0mm直径≤1.25mm的粒子对雨强的贡献最大,说明较大粒子对强降水的贡献较大。     

CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INSHORE INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON “HATO”

This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon "Hato", the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of "Hato", the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on"Hato". The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of "Hato"included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of"Hato"was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.