Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Statistical approach to determine the salinized ground water flow path and hydrogeochemical features around the underground LPG cavern,Korea

The ground water flow path of the coastal area in the Yellow Sea, Korea, was interpreted using both the cross‐correlation analysis of hydraulic properties and the principal component analysis (PCA) of ground water chemistry. Data was obtained from observation wells in the underground liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cavern constructed in the coastal area of Pyeongtaek. Cross‐correlation results showed that the operating pressure became more influenced on artificial factors for the variation of the groundwater level of the study area (45–66% of correlation coefficient) even though its affecting area was limited to the region with fractures or faults, and also showed that the delay time from the variation of operating pressure to the fluctuation of ground water level were relatively long periods (28–31 days). Three hydrogeochemical events (encrusted cement dissolution, host rock dissolution, and seawater intrusion), which were dominantly influenced on ground water quality, could be induced from the result of PCA. Quantitative evaluation for these events using the mixed equation with principal component scores suggest that the dissolution of encrusted cement materials was the predominant factor (39·0% of the total mixed proportion) to change the chemical composition of the seepage water during the ground water flow from the observation wells to the cavern. Integration of the statistical results also imply that ground water flow and hydrogeochemistry were predominantly affected by artificial factors such as cavern operation pressure and dissolution of encrusted cement materials, which were interdependent factors on the observation wells with high cross‐correlation coefficients and pH. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical control chart for regime identification in volcanic time series

In an important paper, Mulargia et al. (1987) address the importance of quantitative and objective identification of different regimes of a volcano. They develop a procedure based on the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) statistic. The K-S test is a general-purpose test that discriminates between two data sets as belonging to two different regimes based on their empirical distribution functions. The empirical distribution function is designed to describe the aggregate behavior of the volcanic activity, and it is constructed from the orders of the length of the collected repose times in each data set. In this article, we use the idea of statistical process control to distinguish between the variation inherent in the observed repose times and the extraordinary variation that signals a real change in the regimes. We construct a table of control limits, and we demonstrate the procedure of regime identification based on a simple control chart. It shows a point outside the control limits almost as soon as the process enters a new regime. The basis of the statistical process control mechanism is a simple Poisson process, which is state of the art. The proposed control charting procedure is an eruption by eruption procedure, which follows the original chronological order of the eruptions. This procedure is applied to the eruptive history of the Mount Etna volcano. The application shows schematically that the procedure presents a visual interpretation of the identified regimes and can be practically translated for tabular or manual use.     

Composition and temperatures of the topside ionosphere over Arecibo

Results of analysis of about 150 autocorrelation functions are presented for the period from about 2300 hr on 5 October to about 1200 hr on 7 October 1967. A large percentage concentration of helium ions are observed. It reaches a value as high as 50 per cent with a maximum at around 800 km. Downward heat fluxes deduced from the temperature variations yield a value of about 2–2.5 × 10⁹ eV cm^?2 sec^?1 during the period 1200–1600 hr and a value of about 1.5 × 10⁸ eV cm^?2 sec^?1 during the period 0100–0400 hr at night. These agree well with other measurements. The O⁺ ions are found not to be in diffusive equilibrium, and from the O⁺ fluxes and the electron density profiles, the O⁺ drift velocity has been estimated. It is found that the speed can be as high as 1–5 × 10³ cm sec^?1 even at altitudes as high as 700 km.     

Venus I. Carbon monoxide distribution and molecular-line searches

An observational program to study variations of the vertical distribution of CO in the Venus atmosphere is presented. Measurements of the J = 0 → 1 absorption line at 2.6 mm wavelength are reported for two phase angles in 1977, one near eastern elongation (Feb.) and the other near inferior conjunction (Apr.). The two spectra are significantly different, with the April absorption line being narrower and deeper. The results of numerical inversion calculations show that the CO mixing ratio increases a factor of ～ 100 between 78 and 100 km and that the CO abundance above ～ 100 km is greatest on the night-side hemisphere. These conclusions are in qualitative agreement with theoretical models. In addition to the CO observations, a search for other molecules was made to provide further information on the composition of the Venus middle atmosphere. The J = 0 → 1 transition of ¹³CO was detected and upper limits were derived for nine other molecules.     

Assessment of the changes in extreme vulnerability over East Asia due to global warming

A number of indices have been employed to describe weather extremes on the basis of climate regimes and public concerns. In this study, we combined these traditional indices into four groups according to whether they relate to warm (T_warm), cold (T_cold), wet (P_wet), or dry (P_dry) extremes. Analysis of the combined indices calculated for the daily temperatures and precipitation at 750 meteorological stations in Korea, China, and Japan for 1960s?C2000s shows increasing trends in T_warm and P_dry events and decreasing trends in T_cold events in recent decades, particularly in the northern part of East Asia. A notable regional variation is an increase in the P_wet events in the Korean Peninsula. We applied the same analysis to a 200-year global climate model simulation for 1900?C2099 using the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Climate System Model 3. During the 20th century, the changes in T_warm and T_cold calculated from the model data are largely consistent with those calculated from the observations, especially in northern East Asia. The model projections for the 21st century indicate statistically significant increasing T_warm and decreasing T_cold trends in extreme events over the region. Results obtained from historical archives and model simulations using our combined weather extreme indices suggest that northern East Asia will be subject to increased warm and dry extremes and the Korea Peninsula will experience more wet extremes.     

High-energy particle acceleration and production of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays in the giant lobes of Centaurus A

The nearby radio galaxy Centaurus A is poorly studied at high frequencies with conventional radio telescopes because of its very large angular size, but is one of a very few extragalactic objects to be detected and resolved by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe ( WMAP ). We have used the five-year WMAP data for Cen A to constrain the high-frequency radio spectra of the 10° giant lobes and to search for spectral changes as a function of position along the lobes. We show that the high-frequency radio spectra of the northern and southern giant lobes are significantly different: the spectrum of the southern lobe steepens monotonically (and is steeper further from the active nucleus) whereas the spectrum of the northern lobe remains consistent with a power law. The inferred differences in the northern and southern giant lobes may be the result of real differences in their high-energy particle acceleration histories, perhaps due to the influence of the northern middle lobe, an intermediate-scale feature which has no detectable southern counterpart. In light of these results, we discuss the prospects for Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope detections of inverse-Compton emission from the giant lobes and the lobes' possible role in the production of the ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECR) detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory. We show that the possibility of a Fermi detection depends sensitively on the physical conditions in the giant lobes, with the northern lobe more likely to be detected, and that any emission observed by Fermi is likely to be dominated by photons at the soft end of the Fermi energy band. On the other hand, we argue that the estimated conditions in the giant lobes imply that UHECRs can be accelerated there, with a potentially detectable γ-ray signature at TeV energies.     

Galaxy activity in merging binary galaxy clusters

We present the results of a study of galaxy activity in two merging binary clusters (A168 and A1750) using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data supplemented with the data in the literature. We have investigated the merger histories of A168 and A1750 by combining the results from a two-body dynamical model and X-ray data. In A168, two subclusters appear to have passed each other and to be coming together from the recent maximum separation. In A1750, two major subclusters appear to have started interaction and to be coming together for the first time. We find an enhanced concentration of the galaxies showing star formation (SF) or active galactic nuclei (AGN) activity in the region between two subclusters in A168, which were possibly triggered by the cluster merger. In A1750, we do not find any galaxies with SF/AGN activity in the region between two subclusters, indicating that two major subclusters are in the early stage of merging.