Indian summer monsoon onset vortex formation during recent decades

This study investigates the decrease in the frequency of onset vortex of summer monsoon during recent decades using the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (1982–2011) data. Onset vortices are known to occur over the Arabian Sea mini warm pool where the sea surface temperature peaks just before the onset of monsoon. Even though the Arabian Sea mini warm pool intensifies during the recent decades, they are not seen as a regular feature. It is found from the analysis of irrotational and non-divergent wind component at 850 and 200 hPa that during the recent decades, convergent winds dominate at upper levels and divergent winds at lower levels which inhibits convection. Moreover, the cyclonic shear vorticity shows a decrease in the recent decades which tend to reduce the boundary layer moisture convergence and lower tropospheric humidity which is an important component for the initiation of a cyclonic system. The recent decades are characterized by weak convection due to the presence of strong northerlies and descending motion at lower levels in the southeast Arabian Sea. The response of atmospheric circulation to the interdecadal variations in the warm pool and the corresponding decrease in the frequency of onset vortex formation is analyzed in detail.     

Availability of coastal groundwater discharge as an alternative water resource in a large-scale reclaimed land,Korea

This study was conducted to identify the availability of coastal groundwater discharge (CGD), subsurface fluids flowing from inland through the coastal area to sea, as an alternative water resource for a large-scale reclaimed land. The behaviors of stable isotopes indicated that groundwater originated from inland precipitation and traveled as CGD along the coast line. Most of the groundwater samples collected from domestic wells installed along the old coast line were considered to be relatively fresh from the correlation analysis among chemical constituents. The average electrical conductivity (EC) values of the samples were identified as averaging 1,125–1,297 μS cm^?1, corresponding to appropriate crop growth. A weathered-rock layer in a small catchment within the reclaimed land was proved to be a main CGD pathway, with electrical resistivity anomalies ranging from 7 to 14 Ω m. Five monitoring wells were placed in this catchment to delineate the occurrence of CGD. Long-term vertical EC profiling results for the monitoring wells indicated that CGD occurs within a depth of 30 m below the ground surface. Annual monitoring data for groundwater level and EC demonstrated that the water quality of CGD was improved by introducing fresh terrestrial groundwater. A remarkable improvement in water quality (EC decrease of 900–1,600 μS cm^?1) of CGD was observed during the saline water pumping test that explains how CGD could be an alternative water resource for the reclaimed land.     

A GNSS interference identification using an adaptive cascading IIR notch filter

A low-complexity time-domain approach for global navigation satellite systems is proposed to detect and identify single-tone, multi-tone, swept continuous wave interference (CWI) and band-limited white Gaussian noise (BLWN). An adaptive notch filter and adaptive cascading filter structure are employed to identify the type of interference signals. The number of the cascading stages is selected by comparing the total power in receiver bandpass, and after, passing the adaptive notch filter. For this reason, the proposed filter structure is more efficient in identifying and mitigating interference signals than the conventional filter structure. In addition, the automatic gain control gain is used to detect the existence of continuous wave interference. The performance of the interference detection and identification method is evaluated for the cases of GPS signal in the presence of single-tone, multi-tone, swept CWI and BLWN.     

Graded-Density Reservoirs for Accessing High Stress Low Temperature Material States

In recently developed laser-driven shockless compression experiments an ablatively driven shock in a primary target is transformed into a ramp compression wave in a secondary target via unloading followed by stagnation across an intermediate vacuum gap. Current limitations on the achievable peak longitudinal stresses are limited by the ability of shaping the temporal profile of the ramp compression pulse. We report on new techniques using graded density reservoirs for shaping the loading profile and extending these techniques to high peak pressures.     

Estimation of the Roll Hydrodynamic Moment Model of a Ship by Using the System Identification Method and the Free Running Model Test

When a fast container ship or a naval vessel turns, accompanying roll motions occur. This roll effect must be considered in the horizontal equations of the motion of the ship to predict the maneuverability of the ship properly. In this paper, a new method for determining a model structure of the hydrodynamic roll moment acting on a ship and for estimating the hydrodynamic coefficients is proposed. The method utilizes a system identification technique with the data from sea trial tests or from free running model (FRM) tests. To obtain motion data that is applied to the proposed algorithm, an FRM of a large container ship was developed. Using this model ship, standard maneuvering tests were carried out on a small body of water out of doors. A hydrodynamic roll moment model was constructed utilizing the data from turning circle tests and a 20-20 zig-zag test. This was then confirmed through a 10-10 zig-zag test. It was concluded that a model structure of the hydrodynamic roll moment model could be established without difficulty through a system identification method and FRM tests.     

Aquifer Characterization Using Fiber Bragg Grating Multi-Level Monitoring System

Groundwater responses measured from multiple wells at different depths are essential for delineating the aquifer heterogeneity using hydraulic tomography (HT). In general, conducting HT requires many wells because traditional well monitoring is usually partially open at a specific depth interval or is fully penetrating. Accordingly, conducting an HT survey is typically costly and time-consuming. To tackle these issues, a new multi-level monitoring system (MLMS) for the HT survey was developed using the fiber Bragg grating (FBG) technique. This FBG MLMS could collect the depth-discrete groundwater observations from a fully penetrated 2-inch well. Three field campaigns were conducted to validate the capability of the FBG MLMS for HT surveys. The results show that the accuracy and stability of this MLMS are reliable and that FBG MLMS is beneficial for conducting an HT survey. Specifically, compared to the traditional monitoring well in an injection event, this FBG MLMS can concurrently cause an increase in the number of cross-hole tests several times and collect many more head observations than the standard methods, resulting in the observed flow fields efficiently reaching ergodic conditions and effectively improving the accuracy of the estimated hydraulic heterogeneity. Therefore, the FBG MLMS could be an alternative MLMS for efficiently and economically conducting an HT survey.     

Guocun landslide in a slate slope with dip structure on 27 March 2021 in Tonglu County,Zhejiang Province,China

On 27 March 2021, a landslide with a volume of approximately 2?×?10⁴ m³ occurred in Guocun Village next to Kengheng road in Tonglu County, Zhejiang Province, China. The landslide caused no casualties as a result of timely road closures, because of the unusual noises detected early by local residents. The motion mechanism of the landslide was studied using video analysis. Slope cutting resulting from road construction might have been the major triggering factor for the landslide. The intrusion of magma and the uplift process of Huangshan led to the metamorphism of mudstone to easily fractured slate, and the brittle layered slate might have controlled the change of motion from transitional sliding to dry debris flow.

     

On a novel approach to forecast sparse rare events: applications to Parkfield earthquake prediction

Natural Hazards - Rare events are plentiful in nature and most of them have devastating consequences on human lives and property. Modeling such events is intrinsically challenging due to their very...     

Potential impacts of northeastern Eurasian snow cover on generation of dust storms in northwestern China during spring

The effects of the northeastern Eurasian snow cover on the frequency of spring dust storms in northwestern China have been examined for the period 1979–2007. Averaged over all 43 stations in northwestern China, a statistically significant relationship has been found between dust-storm frequency (DSF) and Eurasian snow-water equivalent (SWE) during spring: mean DSF of 7.4 and 3.3 days for years of high- and low SWE, respectively. Further analyses reveal that positive SWE anomalies enhance the meridional gradients of the lower tropospheric temperatures and geopotential heights, thereby strengthening westerly jets and zonal wind shear over northwestern China and western Inner Mongolia of China, the regions of major dust sources. The anomalous atmospheric circulation corresponding to the Eurasian SWE anomalies either reinforces or weakens atmospheric baroclinicity and cyclogenesis, according to the sign of the anomaly, to affect the spring DSF. This study suggests that Eurasian SWE anomalies can be an influential factor of spring DSF in northwestern China and western Inner Mongolia of China.     

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.