Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics

Loss of human lives as a result of earthquakes is caused overwhelmingly by the collapse of buildings within less than a few minutes of main shocks. The most urgent countermeasure consists of two key elements. One is strengthening of weak structures and the other is short-term earthquake prediction. Short-term prediction needs precursors. Although some promising precursors are reported, the prevailing views in Japan and elsewhere are overly pessimistic. The pessimism largely roots in the fact that short-term precursors are generally non-seismic and tools developed for seismology are not designed to detect them. Nonetheless, nationally funded large-scale earthquake prediction programs always emphasize the need to reinforce seismometer networks. They do not take into account the views of those in the science community who point to the importance of non-seismic precursors. While there are well-founded causes to be skeptical, the situation needs to be improved. One reason for skepticism is that the observations of precursors have not yet been perfect enough and another is that some important fundamental aspects of non-seismic precursors are still unresolved. We review some of these problems.     

X-ray observation of the Jovian impacts of comet Shoemaker - Levy 9

An ASCA observation of the Jovian impact of the comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 is reported. Four impacts of H, L, Q1 and R were observed and four impacts of B, C, G, and Q2 were observed within 60 minutes after their impacts. No significant flaring of X-ray emission was observed. Upper limit X-ray fluxes of 90 % confidence level, averaged 5 minutes just after the impacts, were 2.4 × 10^–13 erg sec^–1 cm^–2, 3.5 × 10^–13 erg sec^–1 cm^–2, 1.6 × 10^–13 erg sec^–1 cm^–2 and 2.9 × 10^–13 erg sec^–1 cm^–2 for the impacts of H, L, Q1 and R, respectively, in the 0.5(0.7 for H and Q1)–10 keV energy range. However, a hint of X-ray enhancement around Jupiter from July 17 to July 19 was detected with about 2 6 × 10^–14 erg sec^–1 cm^–2 in the 0.5–10 keV energy range.     

Symmetrical fft technique and its applications to earthquake engineering

The objective of this paper is to propose an FFT technique symmetrical for time and frequency, in which the symmetrization is done by introducing generating functions. By the symmetrical treatment, it becomes possible to derive several complementary relations in the time and frequency domains. Based on the idea of the symmetrical FFT technique, the phase problem of seismic waves is discussed not only in the frequency domain but also in the time domain. Furthermore, the deconvolution technique to evaluate the minimum-phase-shift and all-pass functions of seismic waves, which is not discussed sufficiently in earthquake engineering, is developed in the two domains. Numerical examples to present these basic ideas are also illustrated in the symmetrical framework.     

High-sensitive measurement of uranium LIII-edge X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) for the determination of the oxidation states of uranium in crustal materials

The uranium L_III-edge XANES spectra for natural rocks at the concentration range of 0.96–124 mg kg⁻¹ were measured using a log spiral bent crystal Laue analyzer (BCLA) combined with a multi-element Ge detector. It was found that the quality of the XANES spectra using the BCLA was greatly improved due to a reduction of interfering fluorescence from major components such as Rb and Sr. The ratio of signal to background intensities in the U L_III-edge XANES spectra increased by a factor of 2.9–17 with the use of the BCLA, which greatly enhanced the detection limit for the speciation of the oxidation states of U or the U(IV)/U(VI) ratio of natural samples. In addition, it was demonstrated that the fluorescence XANES method coupled with the BCLA enable determination of the speciation of U for various natural samples such as acidic igneous rocks, ferromanganese nodules, sediments, and some sedimentary rocks such as shale and limestone.     

Biogenic carbon flows through the planktonic food web of the Amundsen Gulf (Arctic Ocean): A synthesis of field measurements and inverse modeling analyses

Major pathways of biogenic carbon (C) flow are resolved for the planktonic food web of the flaw lead polynya system of the Amundsen Gulf (southeast Beaufort Sea, Arctic Ocean) in spring-summer 2008. This period was relevant to study the effect of climate change on Arctic marine ecosystems as it was characterized by unusually low ice cover and warm sea surface temperature. Our synthesis relied on a mass balance estimate of gross primary production (GPP) of 52.5 ± 12.5 g C m⁻² calculated using the drawdown of nitrate and dissolved inorganic C, and a seasonal f-ratio of 0.64. Based on chlorophyll a biomass, we estimated that GPP was dominated by phytoplankton (93.6%) over ice algae (6.4%) and by large cells (>5 μm, 67.6%) over small cells (<5 μm, 32.4%). Ancillary in situ data on bacterial production, zooplankton biomass and respiration, herbivory, bacterivory, vertical particle fluxes, pools of particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC, DOC), net community production (NCP), as well as selected variables from the literature were used to evaluate the fate of size-fractionated GPP in the ecosystem. The structure and functioning of the planktonic food web was elucidated through inverse analysis using the mean GPP and the 95% confidence limits of every other field measurement as lower and upper constraints. The model computed a net primary production of 49.2 g C m⁻², which was directly channeled toward dominant calanoid copepods (i.e. Calanus hyperboreus 20%, Calanus glacialis 10%, and Metridia longa 10%), other mesozooplankton (12%), microzooplankton (14%), detrital POC (18%), and DOC (16%). Bacteria required 29.9 g C m⁻², a demand met entirely by the DOC derived from local biological activities. The ultimate C outflow comprised respiration fluxes (82% of the initial GPP), a small sedimentation (3%), and a modest residual C flow (15%) resulting from NCP, dilution and accumulation. The sinking C flux at the model limit depth (395 m) supplied 60% of the estimated benthic C demand (2.8 g C m⁻²), suggesting that the benthos relied partly on other C sources within the bottom boundary layer to fuel its activity. In summary, our results illustrate that the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice promotes the growth of pelagic communities in the Amundsen Gulf, which benefited from a ∼80% increase in GPP in spring-summer 2008 when compared to 2004 – a year of average ice conditions and relatively low GPP. However, 53% of the secondary production was generated within the microbial food web, the net ecological efficiency of zooplankton populations was not particularly high (13.4%), and the quantity of biogenic C available for trophic export remained low (6.6 g C m⁻²). Hence it is unlikely that the increase in lower food web productivity, such as the one observed in our study, could support new harvestable fishery resources in the offshore Beaufort Sea domain.     

Experiment study on RC frame retrofitted by the external structure

A new retrofitting method is proposed herein for reinforced concrete (RC) structures through attachment of an external structure. The external structure consists of a fiber concrete encased steel frame, connection slab and transverse beams. The external structure is connected to the existing structure through a connection slab and transverse beams. Pseudostatic experiments were carried out on one unretrofitted specimen and three retrofitted frame specimens. The characteristics, including failure mode, crack pattern, hysteresis loops behavior, relationship of strain and displacement of the concrete slab, are demonstrated. The results show that the load carrying capacity is obviously increased, and the extension length of the slab and the number of columns within the external frame are important influence factors on the working performance of the existing structure. In addition, the displacement difference between the existing structure and the outer structure was caused mainly by three factors: shear deformation of the slab, extraction of transverse beams, and drift of the conjunction part between the slab and the existing frame. Furthermore, the total deformation determined by the first two factors accounted for approximately 80% of the damage, therefore these factors should be carefully considered in engineering practice to enhance the effects of this new retrofitting method.     

Interpretation of undisturbed hydrogeochemical conditions in Neogene sediments of the Horonobe area, Hokkaido, Japan

Empirical, geostatistical and geochemical modeling techniques were used to determine whether chemical, isotopic and mineralogical data collected in surface-based borehole investigations at the Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory (URL) site in Hokkaido, Japan were representative of the natural environment before it was disturbed by borehole drilling, hydraulic testing and sampling. Water samples collected either by pumping groundwaters to the surface from borehole sections that had been isolated by inflatable packers or by squeezing porewaters from drillcores sampled from the same borehole and sampling depth were found to be similar in certain respects (m_Na+, m_Cl−, δ¹⁸O and δD) but not others (m_SO42−, m_Ca2+, m_Mg2+ and m_K+). The inconsistencies suggest that a majority of the porewater samples were contaminated as a result of pyrite oxidation and dissolution of carbonate minerals during sampling, storage and/or squeezing of the drillcores. Multivariate geostatistical analyses support this hypothesis, and further suggest that uncontaminated porewaters and groundwaters can be divided into three representative groups: a low salinity, low δ¹⁸O and low δD group; a moderate salinity, low Ca-Mg group; and a high salinity, high K and moderate Ca-Mg group. The groundwaters also contain high concentrations of dissolved gases, including CH₄(g), CO₂(g), H₂S(g) and various hydrocarbons, which exsolve from the groundwaters as they are pumped to the surface for sampling. The effects of such degassing on the chemistry of groundwater samples was evaluated by using a reaction-path model to simulate the titration of gases collected at the surface back into the samples. Results suggest that undisturbed groundwaters are slightly more acidic than their sampled counterparts, and contain roughly equivalent activities of dissolved CH₄(aq) and carbonate species. Redox potentials calculated using the corrected groundwater compositions and assuming equilibrium for the CH₄(aq)/CO₂(aq) redox couple are significantly more negative than those determined in situ in one borehole using a downhole chemical probe, and those that can be inferred from the ubiquitous presence of small amounts of framboidal pyrite and siderite in siliceous biogenic sediments of the Horonobe area. The empirical, geostatistical and geochemical modeling techniques considered in this study can be adapted for use in characterizing the hydrogeochemical environment of a site that will eventually be selected to host a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste in Japan.     

Fluid–Sediment Interaction in a Marine Shallow-Water Hydrothermal System in the Wakamiko Submarine Crater, South Kyushu, Japan

The Wakamiko submarine crater is a small depression located in Kagoshima Bay, southwest Japan. Marine shallow‐water hydrothermal activity associated with fumarolic gas emissions at the crater sea floor (water depth 200 m) is considered to be related with magmatic activity of the Aira Caldera. During the NT05‐13 dive expedition conducted in August 2005 using remotely operated vehicle Hyper‐Dolphine (Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology), an active shimmering site was discovered (tentatively named the North site) at approximately 1 km from the previously known site (tentatively named the South site). Surface sediment (up to 30 cm) was cored from six localities including these active sites, and the alteration minerals and pore fluid chemistry were studied. The pore fluids of these sites showed a drastic change in chemical profile from that of seawater, even at 30 cm below the surface, which is attributed to mixing of the ascending hydrothermal component and seawater. The hydrothermal component of the North site is estimated to be derived from a hydrothermal aquifer at 230°C based on the hydrothermal end‐member composition. Occurrence of illite/smectite interstratified minerals in the North site sediment is attributed to in situ fluid–sediment interaction at a temperature around 150°C, which is in accordance with the pore fluid chemistry. In contrast, montmorillonite was identified as the dominant alteration mineral in the South site sediment. Together with the significant low potassium concentration of the hydrothermal end‐member, the abundant occurrence of low‐temperature alteration mineral suggests that the hydrothermal aquifer in the South site is not as high as 200°C. Moreover, the montmorillonite is likely to be unstable with the present pore fluid chemistry at the measured temperature (117°C). This disagreement implies unstable hydrothermal activity at the South site, in contrast to the equilibrium between the pore fluid and alteration minerals in the North site sediment. This difference may reflect the thermal and/or hydrological structure of the Wakamiko Crater hydrothermal system.     

High parallelization efficiency in barotropic-mode computation of ocean models based on multi-grid boundary ghost area

In general, barotropic-mode computation requires the largest communication time in ocean models because of its iterative nature, when parallel computation is performed based on regional partitioning. In this study, reduction in the overhead time included in the communication in the parallel computation of the barotropic mode is considered to achieve a high parallelization efficiency of ocean models. We verify that the reduction in the communication frequency based on the multi-grid boundary ghost area reduces the total communication time. We find that this is because the sum of several kinds of overhead time for communication occupies a fairly large part of the total communication time. We discuss the trade-off between the decrease in communication time and the increase in computation time due to increased boundary area in such cases, leading to a determination of a suitable width of the multi-grid boundary that minimizes the total required time. We also discuss the efficiencies of the one- and two-dimensional partitioning of the model domain, when a multi-grid boundary is used. In general, two-dimensional partitioning is more efficient than one-dimensional for large partitioning numbers.     

Characteristics and regional classification of the copepod community in Ariake Bay with note on comparison with 3 decades ago

Ariake Bay, Kyushu Island, has recently exhibited environmental degradation in the form of red tides and anoxic bottom water. To determine the characteristics and regional classification of the copepod community, zooplankton surveys were made throughout the bay in three cruises each in October 2004, January 2005 and March 2009 by vertical tows of a 0.1-mm-mesh plankton net. Oithona davisae was the most abundant in January and March, and Microsetella norvegica in October. Cluster analysis revealed that the copepod community from each cruise was generally separated into the inner to eastern-middle region and the western-middle to mouth region. A SIMPER analysis revealed that dissimilarity between the groups and similarity within each group were mainly due to the dominant species, but the similarities within the outer-region group in January and March were mostly contributed by Paracalanus parvus s.l. A non-metric multidimensional scaling with bubble plots of environmental variables and a BIOENV analysis showed that transparency was more different between the two groups than temperature and salinity. As compared with two similarly sized, eutrophic bays (Tokyo and Osaka Bays), Ariake Bay differs from Tokyo Bay in the dominance of M. norvegica and from Osaka Bay in the high abundance of O. davisae even in the colder season. The dominant species and the regional classification of the copepod community in the bay were similar to those in the studies in the 1970s, suggesting that the copepod community has not notably changed during the last 3 decades.