Evaluation and response of winter cold spells over Western Europe in CMIP5 models

This paper is dedicated to the analysis of winter cold spells over Western Europe in the simulations of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Both model biases and responses in a warming climate are discussed using historical simulations and the 8.5 W/m² Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario, respectively on the 1979–2008 and 2070–2099 periods. A percentile-based index (10th percentile of daily minimum temperature, Q10) with duration and spatial extent criteria is used to define cold spells. Related diagnostics (intensity, duration, extent, and severity as a combination of the former three statistics) of 13 models are compared to observations and suggest that models biases on severity are mainly due to the intensity parameter rather than to duration and extent. Some hypotheses are proposed to explain these biases, that involve large-scale dynamics and/or radiative fluxes related to clouds. Evolution of cold spells characteristics by the end of the century is then discussed by comparing RCP8.5 and historical simulations. In line with the projected rise of mean temperature, “present-climate” cold spells (computed with the 1979–2008 10th percentile, Q10P) are projected to be much less frequent and, except in one model, less severe. When cold spells are defined from the future 10th percentile threshold (“future-climate” cold spells, Q10F), all models simulate a decrease of their intensity linearly related to the seasonal mean warming. Some insights are given to explain the inter-model diversity in the magnitude of the cold spells response. In particular, the snow-albedo feedback is suggested to play an important role, while for some models changes in large-scale dynamics are also not negligible.     

The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia: floodplain hydrology and its potential ecological and human impacts

It is well known that most of the severe droughts in Amazonia, such as that of 1997, are El Niño-related. However, in 2005, the Amazon was affected by a severe drought that was not El Niño-related, as most of the rainfall anomalies that have happened in southwestern Amazonia are driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic. Earlier studies have analyzed both droughts in terms of their meteorological causes and impacts in terra firme (non-flooded) forests. This study compares the hydrological effects of both droughts on the Amazonian floodplain and discusses their potential ecological and human impacts based on an extensive literature review. The results revealed that the effects of the 2005 drought were exacerbated because rainfall was lower and evaporation rates were higher at the peak of the dry season compared to the 1997 drought. This induced a more acute depletion of water levels in floodplain lakes and was most likely associated with higher fish mortality rates. Based on the fact that the stem growth of many floodplain species is related to the length of the non-flooded period, it is hypothesized that the 1997 drought had more positive effects on floodplain forest growth than the 2005 drought. The fishing community of Silves in central Amazonia considered both droughts to have been equally severe. However, the 2005 drought was widely broadcasted by the press; therefore, the governmental mitigation efforts were more comprehensive. It is suggested that the availability of new communication technology and greater public awareness regarding environmental issues, combined with the new legal framework for assessing the severity of calamities in Brazil, are among the primary factors that explain the difference in societal response between the two droughts.     

Modeling monthly mean air temperature for Brazil

Air temperature is one of the main weather variables influencing agriculture around the world. Its availability, however, is a concern, mainly in Brazil where the weather stations are more concentrated on the coastal regions of the country. Therefore, the present study had as an objective to develop models for estimating monthly and annual mean air temperature for the Brazilian territory using multiple regression and geographic information system techniques. Temperature data from 2,400 stations distributed across the Brazilian territory were used, 1,800 to develop the equations and 600 for validating them, as well as their geographical coordinates and altitude as independent variables for the models. A total of 39 models were developed, relating the dependent variables maximum, mean, and minimum air temperatures (monthly and annual) to the independent variables latitude, longitude, altitude, and their combinations. All regression models were statistically significant (α?≤?0.01). The monthly and annual temperature models presented determination coefficients between 0.54 and 0.96. We obtained an overall spatial correlation higher than 0.9 between the models proposed and the 16 major models already published for some Brazilian regions, considering a total of 3.67?×?10⁸?pixels evaluated. Our national temperature models are recommended to predict air temperature in all Brazilian territories.     

Present climate and climate change over North America as simulated by the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model

The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) was used to dynamically downscale two Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM) simulations of the transient climate change for the period 1950–2100, over North America, following the CORDEX protocol. The CRCM5 was driven by data from the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR CGCM simulations, based on the historical (1850–2005) and future (2006–2100) RCP4.5 radiative forcing scenario. The results show that the CRCM5 simulations reproduce relatively well the current-climate North American regional climatic features, such as the temperature and precipitation multiannual means, annual cycles and temporal variability at daily scale. A cold bias was noted during the winter season over western and southern portions of the continent. CRCM5-simulated precipitation accumulations at daily temporal scale are much more realistic when compared with its driving CGCM simulations, especially in summer when small-scale driven convective precipitation has a large contribution over land. The CRCM5 climate projections imply a general warming over the continent in the 21st century, especially over the northern regions in winter. The winter warming is mostly contributed by the lower percentiles of daily temperatures, implying a reduction in the frequency and intensity of cold waves. A precipitation decrease is projected over Central America and an increase over the rest of the continent. For the average precipitation change in summer however there is little consensus between the simulations. Some of these differences can be attributed to the uncertainties in CGCM-projected changes in the position and strength of the Pacific Ocean subtropical high pressure.     

Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonization of a power market

How does financial performance risk affect investments in low-carbon electricity-generating technologies to achieve climate policy targets? A detailed risk simulation of price formation in the Great Britain wholesale power market is used to show that the increasing replacement of fossil facilities with wind, ceteris paribus, may cause a deterioration of the financial risk–return performance metrics for incremental investments. Low-carbon investments appear to be high risk, low return, and as such may require a progressively higher level of support over time than envisaged by the conventional degression trajectories. The increasing riskiness of the wholesale market will to some extent offset the benefits of lower capital costs and operational efficiencies if investors need to satisfy cautious debt coverage ratios alongside positive expected returns. This increased risk is additional to the well-known ‘merit order effect’ of low-carbon investments progressively depressing wholesale prices and hence their expected investment returns.

Policy relevance

Policy support for renewable technologies such as wind is usually based upon levelized costs and is expected to reduce over time as capital costs and operational efficiencies improve. However, levelized costs do not take full account of the risk aversion that investors may have in practice. Expected policy support reductions may be moderated to some extent by the increased financial performance risk that intermittent technologies bring to the power market. The annual risk-return profiles for incremental investments deteriorate for all technologies as wind replaces fossil fuels. This extra risk premium will need to be incorporated into evaluating policy incentives for new investments in a decarbonizing power market.     

THz photometers for solar flare observations from space

The search for the still unrevealed spectral shape of the mysterious THz solar flare emissions is one of the current most challenging research issues. The concept, fabrication and performance of a double THz photometer system, named SOLAR-T, is presented. Its innovative optical setup allows observations of the full solar disk and the detection of small burst transients at the same time. The detecting system was constructed to observe solar flare THz emissions on board of stratospheric balloons. The system has been integrated to data acquisition and telemetry modules for this application. SOLAR-T uses two Golay cell detectors preceded by low-pass filters made of rough surface primary mirrors and membranes, 3 and 7 THz band-pass filters, and choppers. Its photometers can detect small solar bursts (tens of solar flux units) with sub second time resolution. Tests have been conducted to confirm the entire system performance, on ambient and low pressure and temperature conditions. An artificial Sun setup was developed to simulate performance on actual observations. The experiment is planned to be on board of two long-duration stratospheric balloon flights over Antarctica and Russia in 2014–2016.     

Sediment Organic Carbon in Todos Santos Bay, Baja California, Mexico

Sediment grain size and organic carbon (OC) data collected over the past 50 years, together with δ¹³C values of OC in recently collected samples, were analyzed to improve understanding of sediment OC distribution and abundance in Todos Santos Bay. Sediments in the submarine canyon at the mouth of the bay and in quiet-water locations along the shore are fine grained, high in OC, and have generally low δ¹³C values; sediments in high-energy environments are low in OC and have high δ¹³C values. A bivariate isotopic mixing model indicates that none of the sediments contain >50% terrigenous OC (average ~30%), and that the terrigenous OC content of the sediments is a small proportion of the OC content of local soils. Sediment OC composition is apparently controlled by energy-related sorting and deposition, oxidation of much of the original terrigenous OC, and replacement of some terrigenous OC by marine OC.     

Seasonal fluctuations in the deep central equatorial Atlantic Ocean: a data–model comparison

Low-frequency current fluctuations in the deep central equatorial Atlantic are analyzed using current meter measurements recorded from November 1992 to November 1994. Current meters were located at about 14°W of longitude and 1° of latitude on both sides of the equator between 1,700 m depth and the ocean bottom. At all sampling depths, the velocity fluctuations are dominantly zonal and symmetrical with respect to the equator. At 1,700 and 2,000 m, the flow is dominated by annual period fluctuations, at 3,000 m, the velocity field amplitude presents a minimum, and at 3,750 and 3,950 m, the flow is modulated by annual and semiannual period variability. The annual signal exhibits an apparent upward phase propagation. When considering the phase and the amplitude of the seasonal fluctuations, the data compare well with the outputs of a realistic numerical simulation of the Atlantic Ocean. Together with a previous analysis of the model simulations, this supports the idea that the observed annual fluctuations are due to wind-forced vertically propagating Kelvin and Rossby waves. Data and model do not provide deciding evidences of the presence of semiannual equatorial waves deeper than 3,500 m depth in the central equatorial Atlantic Ocean.     

Spatial distribution of crustaceans associated with shallow soft‐bottom habitats in a coral reef lagoon

The ecology and diversity of the shallow soft‐bottom areas adjacent to coral reefs are still poorly known. To date, the few studies conducted in these habitats dealing with macroinvertebrate fauna have focused on their abundance spatial patterns at high taxonomic levels. Thus, some aspects important to evaluate the importance and vulnerability of these habitats, such as species diversity or the degree of habitat specialization, have often been overlooked. In this study we compared the crustacean assemblages present in four different habitats at Magoodhoo Island coral reef lagoon (Maldives): coral rubble, sandy areas and two different seagrass species (Thalassia hemprichii and Cymodocea sp.). Forty‐two different crustacean species belonging to 30 families and four orders were found. ‘Site’ was a significant factor in all of the statistical analyses, indicating that tropical soft‐bottom habitats can be highly heterogeneous, even at a spatial scale between tens and hundreds of meters. Although traditionally it has been considered that seagrass beds host greater species diversity and abundance of organisms than adjacent unvegetated habitats, no differences in the univariate measures of fauna (abundance of organisms, number of species and Shannon diversity) were observed among habitats. However, sandy areas, coral rubble and seagrass beds exhibited different species composition of crustacean communities. The percentage of taxa considered as potential habitat specialists was 27% and the number of species exclusively occurring in one habitat was especially high in seagrass beds. Thus, degradation of this vegetated habitat would result in a great loss of biodiversity in tropical shallow soft‐bottom habitats.     

Tidal exposure or microhabitats: what determines sandy‐beach nematode zonation? a case study of a macrotidal ridge‐and‐runnel sandy beach in Belgium

Lately, across‐shore zonation has been found to be more important in structuring the nematode community of a tropical macrotidal sandy beach than microhabitat heterogeneity. To evaluate whether this zonation pattern applies to a temperate beach, a macrotidal ridge‐and‐runnels sandy beach in the North Sea was studied. We investigated whether a similar zonation occurs in sandbar and runnel microhabitats, and whether the runnels harbour a different community from the subtidal. Our results indicate that nematode communities from runnel and sandbar habitats are significantly different. In addition, horizontal zonation patterns for nematode communities differ between both habitats. Nematode assemblages from sandbars are divided to lower, middle and upper beach while upper and middle runnels cluster together. The subtidal and upper runnels showed dissimilar nematode assemblages, although runnels showed the same dominant species (Daptonema normandicum), which increases its abundance towards the upper runnels. This study illustrates the importance of microhabitat heterogeneity, which resulted in different zonation patterns across the sandy beach examined. The divergent zonation between sandbars and runnels in the macrotidal temperate sandy beach, compared with the pattern observed for a subtropical sandy beach with similar morphodynamics, indicates that generalizations about nematode distribution patterns should be made with caution.