A Two-Day Case Study: Comparison of Turbulence Data from an Unmanned Aircraft System with a Model Chain for Complex Terrain

The airborne measurement platform MASC-3 (Multi-Purpose Airborne Sensor Carrier) is used for measurements over a forested escarpment in the Swabian Alps to evaluate the wind field. Data from flight legs between 20 and 200 m above the ground on two consecutive days with uphill (westerly) flow in September 2018 are analyzed. In the lowest 140 m above the ground a speed-up is found with increased turbulence and changes in wind direction directly over the escarpment, whereas in the lowest 20 to 50 m above the ground a deceleration of the flow is measured. Additionally, simulation results from a numerical model chain based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and an OpenFOAM (Open Source Field Operation and Manipulation) model, developed for complex terrain, are compared to the data captured by MASC-3. The models and measurements compare well for the mean wind speed and inclination angle.

     

Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate

The concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere continues to rise, hence estimating the climate system’s sensitivity to changes in GHG concentration is of vital importance. Uncertainty in climate sensitivity is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future climate change. Here we present a new approach for constraining this key uncertainty by combining ensemble simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) with paleo-data. For this purpose we used a climate model of intermediate complexity to perform a large set of equilibrium runs for (1) pre-industrial boundary conditions, (2) doubled CO₂ concentrations, and (3) a complete set of glacial forcings (including dust and vegetation changes). Using proxy-data from the LGM at low and high latitudes we constrain the set of realistic model versions and thus climate sensitivity. We show that irrespective of uncertainties in model parameters and feedback strengths, in our model a close link exists between the simulated warming due to a doubling of CO₂, and the cooling obtained for the LGM. Our results agree with recent studies that annual mean data-constraints from present day climate prove to not rule out climate sensitivities above the widely assumed sensitivity range of 1.5–4.5°C (Houghton et al. 2001). Based on our inferred close relationship between past and future temperature evolution, our study suggests that paleo-climatic data can help to reduce uncertainty in future climate projections. Our inferred uncertainty range for climate sensitivity, constrained by paleo-data, is 1.2–4.3°C and thus almost identical to the IPCC estimate. When additionally accounting for potential structural uncertainties inferred from other models the upper limit increases by about 1°C.     

Fingerprinting a multistage metamorphic fluid–rock history: Evidence from grain scale Sr,O and C isotopic and trace element variations in high-grade marbles from East Antarctica

Granulite grade marble layers interlayered with metapelitic granulites from Lützow Holm Bay, East Antarctica, provide insight into fluid–rock interactions during burial to and exhumation from lower crustal levels. Sub-millimeter scale strontium, oxygen and carbon isotope variations along with LA-ICPMS trace element geochemistry and mineral chemistry of texturally characterized carbonates and associated minerals helped to reconstruct the multistage metamorphic fluid history.Fluid–rock interaction dating back to prograde metamorphism are still preserved in consistently low oxygen and high strontium isotope compositions (δ¹⁸O = 12‰; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(550Ma) = 0.7248) within a massif dolomitic marble layer that escaped significant later metasomatism. In most marbles, total re-crystallization and isotopic resetting occurred in the presence of “externally derived” hyper-saline fluids that circulated along the carbonate layers during the early stages of prograde metamorphism. This leads to a trend of increased radiogenic Sr in marbles towards the value of associated metapelitic rocks that have ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(550Ma) of 0.764.LA-ICPMS studies on trace elements in carbonate and associated silicate minerals at different textural settings, distinguished using cathodoluminescence microscopy, revealed multiple metasomatic events during retrograde metamorphism. Trace element contents of Ba, Sr, Pb and U gave compelling evidence for metasomatic alteration that postdate the exsolution of carbonate at ~ 600 ºC, which can be correlated with the fluids released from the crystallization of anatectic melts and pegmatites. Subsequently, meteoric fluid infiltration occurred at a shallower level of the crust and caused extreme oxygen isotopic heterogeneity (δ¹⁸O = 14.7 ~ ? 4.9‰) and imprinted high concentration of fluid mobile elements. Taken together our results emphasize the importance of integrating textural and chemical heterogeneities to reveal the multiple episodes of fluid–rock interaction processes in a dynamic continental crust, which has major implications on migration of fluids and material and help in formulating models on the geodynamic evolution of crust.     

Catchments as reactors: a comprehensive approach for water fluxes and solute turnover

Sustainable water quality management requires a profound understanding of water fluxes (precipitation, run-off, recharge, etc.) and solute turnover such as retention, reaction, transformation, etc. at the catchment or landscape scale. The Water and Earth System Science competence cluster (WESS, http://www.wess.info/) aims at a holistic analysis of the water cycle coupled to reactive solute transport, including soil–plant–atmosphere and groundwater–surface water interactions. To facilitate exploring the impact of land-use and climate changes on water cycling and water quality, special emphasis is placed on feedbacks between the atmosphere, the land surface, and the subsurface. A major challenge lies in bridging the scales in monitoring and modeling of surface/subsurface versus atmospheric processes. The field work follows the approach of contrasting catchments, i.e. neighboring watersheds with different land use or similar watersheds with different climate. This paper introduces the featured catchments and explains methodologies of WESS by selected examples.     

Stepwise,earthquake-driven coastal subsidence in the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta (Sundarbans) since the eighth century deduced from submerged in situ kiln and mangrove remnants

Natural Hazards - This study reconstructs the coastal subsidence over the past 1300 years in a mangrove region along the coast of the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta, an area not affected...     

Constraining ocean diffusivity from the 8.2 ka event

Greenland ice-core data containing the 8.2 ka event are utilized by a model-data intercomparison within the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2.3 to investigate their potential for constraining the range of uncertain ocean diffusivity properties. Within a stochastic version of the model (Bauer et al. in Paleoceanography 19:PA3014, 2004) it has been possible to mimic the pronounced cooling of the 8.2 ka event with relatively good accuracy considering the timing of the event in comparison to other modelling exercises. When statistically inferring from the 8.2 ka event on diffusivity the technical difficulty arises to establish the related likelihood numerically per realisation of the uncertain model parameters: while mainstream uncertainty analyses can assume a quasi-Gaussian shape of likelihood, with weather fluctuating around a long term mean, the 8.2 ka event as a highly nonlinear effect precludes such an a priori assumption. As a result of this study the Bayesian Analysis leads to a sharp single-mode likelihood for ocean diffusivity parameters within CLIMBER-2.3. Depending on the prior distribution this likelihood leads to a reduction of uncertainty in ocean diffusivity parameters (e.g. for flat prior uncertainty in the vertical ocean diffusivity parameter is reduced by factor 2). These results highlight the potential of paleo data to constrain uncertain system properties and strongly suggest to make further steps with more complex models and richer data sets to harvest this potential.     

基于SWARM双星观测的场向电流的经度变化

本文利用SWARM A和C双星高精度的矢量磁场数据研究了不同季节高纬地区场向电流(FACs)随地磁经度和地方时的变化情况.研究发现:在南北半球,FACs存在明显的经度变化,南半球FACs的变化强度大约是北半球的1.2～3.2倍.利用潮汐谱分析法我们发现FACs中占主导的非迁移潮汐分量为DW2和D0.在春秋和夏季半球,DW2波更为明显.D0波可用太阳光照的经度变化来解释,向阳侧靠近磁极的经度带比远离磁极的经度带有更强的太阳光照射.DW2波则与地磁场强度和地磁倾角等因素有关.全球电离层与热层模型计算的FACs中D0波占主导,且中性风和对流电场对D0波的贡献几乎相当.     

Preface

Earth, Moon, and Planets -     

A comparison of low-latitude cloud properties and their response to climate change in three AGCMs sorted into regimes using mid-tropospheric vertical velocity

Low-latitude cloud distributions and cloud responses to climate perturbations are compared in near-current versions of three leading U.S. AGCMs, the NCAR CAM 3.0, the GFDL AM2.12b, and the NASA GMAO NSIPP-2 model. The analysis technique of Bony et al. (Clim Dyn 22:71–86, 2004) is used to sort cloud variables by dynamical regime using the monthly mean pressure velocity ω at 500 hPa from 30S to 30N. All models simulate the climatological monthly mean top-of-atmosphere longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcing (CRF) adequately in all ω-regimes. However, they disagree with each other and with ISCCP satellite observations in regime-sorted cloud fraction, condensate amount, and cloud-top height. All models have too little cloud with tops in the middle troposphere and too much thin cirrus in ascent regimes. In subsidence regimes one model simulates cloud condensate to be too near the surface, while another generates condensate over an excessively deep layer of the lower troposphere. Standardized climate perturbation experiments of the three models are also compared, including uniform SST increase, patterned SST increase, and doubled CO₂ over a mixed layer ocean. The regime-sorted cloud and CRF perturbations are very different between models, and show lesser, but still significant, differences between the same model simulating different types of imposed climate perturbation. There is a negative correlation across all general circulation models (GCMs) and climate perturbations between changes in tropical low cloud cover and changes in net CRF, suggesting a dominant role for boundary layer cloud in these changes. For some of the cases presented, upper-level clouds in deep convection regimes are also important, and changes in such regimes can either reinforce or partially cancel the net CRF response from the boundary layer cloud in subsidence regimes. This study highlights the continuing uncertainty in both low and high cloud feedbacks simulated by GCMs.