Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate

The concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere continues to rise, hence estimating the climate system’s sensitivity to changes in GHG concentration is of vital importance. Uncertainty in climate sensitivity is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future climate change. Here we present a new approach for constraining this key uncertainty by combining ensemble simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) with paleo-data. For this purpose we used a climate model of intermediate complexity to perform a large set of equilibrium runs for (1) pre-industrial boundary conditions, (2) doubled CO₂ concentrations, and (3) a complete set of glacial forcings (including dust and vegetation changes). Using proxy-data from the LGM at low and high latitudes we constrain the set of realistic model versions and thus climate sensitivity. We show that irrespective of uncertainties in model parameters and feedback strengths, in our model a close link exists between the simulated warming due to a doubling of CO₂, and the cooling obtained for the LGM. Our results agree with recent studies that annual mean data-constraints from present day climate prove to not rule out climate sensitivities above the widely assumed sensitivity range of 1.5–4.5°C (Houghton et al. 2001). Based on our inferred close relationship between past and future temperature evolution, our study suggests that paleo-climatic data can help to reduce uncertainty in future climate projections. Our inferred uncertainty range for climate sensitivity, constrained by paleo-data, is 1.2–4.3°C and thus almost identical to the IPCC estimate. When additionally accounting for potential structural uncertainties inferred from other models the upper limit increases by about 1°C.     

基于SWARM双星观测的场向电流的经度变化

本文利用SWARM A和C双星高精度的矢量磁场数据研究了不同季节高纬地区场向电流(FACs)随地磁经度和地方时的变化情况.研究发现:在南北半球,FACs存在明显的经度变化,南半球FACs的变化强度大约是北半球的1.2～3.2倍.利用潮汐谱分析法我们发现FACs中占主导的非迁移潮汐分量为DW2和D0.在春秋和夏季半球,DW2波更为明显.D0波可用太阳光照的经度变化来解释,向阳侧靠近磁极的经度带比远离磁极的经度带有更强的太阳光照射.DW2波则与地磁场强度和地磁倾角等因素有关.全球电离层与热层模型计算的FACs中D0波占主导,且中性风和对流电场对D0波的贡献几乎相当.     

Coupling global and regional circulation models in the coastal Gulf of Alaska

As part of the US GLOBEC NE Pacific program, we are simulating currents in the Coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGOA) to explore sources of interannual and interdecadal variability. To do so, we have developed a coupled modeling system composed of linked regional and global circulation models. The regional model, configured with 13–22 km resolution in the CGOA, is forced at the surface by observed heat fluxes and wind stresses, at the continental boundaries by observed runoff, and at the open ocean boundaries by a combination of tracer climatologies and sub-tidal velocity and tidal elevation provided by a global finite element model. In this communication, we describe the coupled system, including its present method of intermodel coupling, describe a series of multi-year model hindcasts, compare hindcast results with Eulerian and Lagrangian field data obtained in the CGOA in fall 1996, and assess the impact of global information (barotropic sub-tidal velocities and tidal elevations) on the regional model under the present coupling strategy. We find that the regional model produces appropriate current systems (Alaskan Stream, Alaska Coastal Current) and scalar fields, but with mesoscale variability (of SSH and velocities) at somewhat reduced strength relative to data, and with temperature gradients somewhat larger than those observed. Barotropic sub-tidal information from the global model penetrates the regional model interior, supplying additional mesoscale variability, and modifying regional velocity and scalar fields in both shallow and deep areas. Tidal information exerts a significant influence on sub-tidal scalar and velocity structure only in specific shallow areas, where the tides (and tidal mixing) are strongest. Pending the exploration of alternate coupling schemes, we infer from these results that on a time scale of months, purely barotropic information from outside the CGOA will have a modest impact on its mean regional circulation, but a potentially stronger impact on the statistics and details of mesoscale eddies.     

Hail frequency in the Pretoria — Witwatersrand area during 1962 to 1972

Summary Hail observations were made in the Transvaal, South Africa, during the decade 1962 to 1972. The hail-reporting network covered an area of 2800 km² with Pretoria in the northeast and the also densely-populated Witwatersrand in the south. A panel of about 800 voluntary observers contributed 10 560 hail reports during this period. Isopleths of hail frequency within the network were plotted. The pattern was strikingly similar to the isohyetal map. More rain and hail occurred in the urban areas than elsewhere and there was a relationship to topography. Pretoria received less hail than the Witwatersrand, a ridge about 300 m higher than Pretoria.     

Computing costs for FEM analysis of foundation engineering problems and possible ways of increasing efficiency

The application of finite element methods (FEM) is often restricted by the available computer capacity and the computing costs. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is, to present test results and to discuss possible ways of achieving a substantial reduction in computing times. Dividing the numerical analysis into the five levels–hardware, software, element-mesh and element-type, iteration technique (approximation of non-linearity) and constitutive model–one can show that the computing time can be reduced by about 20 per cent at every level. In particular, the use of the modified Newton-Raphson method for approximation of non-linearity and the constitutive model–apart from the theoretical concept (elastoplastic, hypoelastic etc.)—must be formulated in a manner which does not produce substantial changes in the coefficients of the material matrix caused by small stress changes. On the whole, computing time can be reduced to about 10 per cent of present computing costs. Thus, it would even be economically viable to solve three-dimensional non-linear problems by FEM.     

Effects of using inclined parametric echosounding on sub-bottom acoustic imaging and advances in buried object detection

This study reports an adaptation of a parametric echosounder system using 15 kHz as secondary frequency to investigate the angular response of sub-bottom backscatter strength of layered mud, providing a new method for enhanced acoustic detection of buried targets. Adaptions to achieve both vertical (0°) and non-vertical inclination (1–15°, 30°, 45° and 60°) comprise mechanical tilting of the acoustic transducer and electronic beam steering. Data were acquired at 18 m water depth at a study site characterized by a flat, muddy seafloor where a 0.1 m diameter power cable lies 1–2 m below the seafloor. Surveying the cable with vertical incidence revealed that the buried cable can hardly be discriminated against the backscatter strength of the layered mud. However, the backscatter strength of layered mud decreases strongly at >3±0.5° incidence and the layered mud echo pattern vanishes beyond 5°. As a consequence, the backscatter pattern of the buried cable is very pronounced in acoustic images gathered at 15°, 30°, 45° and 60° incidence. The size of the cable echo pattern increases linearly with incidence. These effects are attributed to reflection loss from layered mud at larger incidence and to the scattering of the 0.1 m diameter buried cable. Data analyses support the visual impression of superior detection of the cable with an up to 2.6-fold increase of the signal-to-noise ratio at 40° incidence compared to the vertical incidence case.     

African environmental and climatic changes and the general atmospheric circulation in late pleistocene and holocene

The paper describes the environmental and climatic changes which took place in Africa from the late Pleistocene through the Holocene and the general atmospheric circulation patterns which likely correspond to them. Three major periods are considered: (1) a period of aridity and dune building c. 20,000-12,000 B.P. in which the Sahara advanced considerably southward; (2) a moist, lacustrine period c. 10,000-8,000 B.P.; and (3) a second moist, lacustrine period toward c. 6,500-4,500 B.P. in which the entire Sahara desert contracted considerably. The prevailing atmospheric circulation patterns are theorized on the basis of corresponding changes of surface boundary conditions-primarily changing thermal character—and known dynamic behavior of the atmosphere.     

A comparison of low-latitude cloud properties and their response to climate change in three AGCMs sorted into regimes using mid-tropospheric vertical velocity

Low-latitude cloud distributions and cloud responses to climate perturbations are compared in near-current versions of three leading U.S. AGCMs, the NCAR CAM 3.0, the GFDL AM2.12b, and the NASA GMAO NSIPP-2 model. The analysis technique of Bony et al. (Clim Dyn 22:71–86, 2004) is used to sort cloud variables by dynamical regime using the monthly mean pressure velocity ω at 500 hPa from 30S to 30N. All models simulate the climatological monthly mean top-of-atmosphere longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcing (CRF) adequately in all ω-regimes. However, they disagree with each other and with ISCCP satellite observations in regime-sorted cloud fraction, condensate amount, and cloud-top height. All models have too little cloud with tops in the middle troposphere and too much thin cirrus in ascent regimes. In subsidence regimes one model simulates cloud condensate to be too near the surface, while another generates condensate over an excessively deep layer of the lower troposphere. Standardized climate perturbation experiments of the three models are also compared, including uniform SST increase, patterned SST increase, and doubled CO₂ over a mixed layer ocean. The regime-sorted cloud and CRF perturbations are very different between models, and show lesser, but still significant, differences between the same model simulating different types of imposed climate perturbation. There is a negative correlation across all general circulation models (GCMs) and climate perturbations between changes in tropical low cloud cover and changes in net CRF, suggesting a dominant role for boundary layer cloud in these changes. For some of the cases presented, upper-level clouds in deep convection regimes are also important, and changes in such regimes can either reinforce or partially cancel the net CRF response from the boundary layer cloud in subsidence regimes. This study highlights the continuing uncertainty in both low and high cloud feedbacks simulated by GCMs.     

Tropical Rain Forest and Climate Dynamics of the Atlantic Lowland, Southern Brazil, during the Late Quaternary

Palynological analysis of a core from the Atlantic rain forest region in Brazil provides unprecedented insight into late Quaternary vegetational and climate dynamics within this southern tropical lowland. The 576-cm-long sediment core is from a former beach-ridge “valley,” located 3 km inland from the Atlantic Ocean. Radio-carbon dates suggest that sediment deposition began prior to 35,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Between ca. 37,500 and ca. 27,500 ¹⁴C yr B.P. and during the last glacial maximum (LGM; ca. 27,500 to ca. 14,500 ¹⁴C yr B.P.), the coastal rain forest was replaced by grassland and patches of cold-adapted forest. Tropical trees, such as Alchornea, Moraceae/Urticaceae, and Arecaceae, were almost completely absent during the LGM. Furthermore, their distributions were shifted at least 750 km further north, suggesting a cooling between 3°C and 7°C and a strengthening of Antarctic cold fronts during full-glacial times. A depauperate tropical rain forest developed as part of a successional sequence after ca. 12,300 ¹⁴C yr B.P. There is no evidence that Araucaria trees occurred in the Atlantic lowland during glacial times. The rain forest was disturbed by marine incursions during the early Holocene period until ca. 6100 ¹⁴C yr B.P., as indicated by the presence of microforaminifera. A closed Atlantic rain forest then developed at the study site.