Managing organizational change in an international scientific network: A study of ICES reform processes

Organizations involved in the governance of natural resources are challenged to adjust to the call for more holistic management approaches. This often necessitates organizational change. Here change processes in the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) during the years 1998–2009 are investigated using semi-structured interviews combined with observations and review of documents. Several organizational reforms were implemented during the time period studied. The major drivers were the need to improve efficiency and a striving for better integration between different components within the organization. The reform processes were driven forward by individuals who navigated between opportunities and constrains embedded in the network structure of ICES. This required good leadership and communication skills. Broad consultations were important to ensure support within the ICES community. By increasing the understanding of the dynamics of change in organizations, which operate at the science–policy interface developments in desired directions can be facilitated.     

Painting the floor with a hammer: Technical fixes in fisheries management

Fisheries management benefits from the contribution of several academic disciplines, each with their own perspectives, concerns and solutions. In this essay we argue that the contribution of biology, economics, sociology and other relevant disciplines to fisheries would be improved if they originated from broader, more integrated analytical perspectives that are attuned to the empirical realities of fisheries management. Today, disciplinary boundaries narrow the perspectives of fisheries management, creating tunnel vision and standardized technical fixes to complex and diverse management problems. Having worked separately and together for a number of years in fisheries research and consultancy in many parts of the world we, as a group of biologists, economists and sociologists, feel that the time to rid ourselves from disciplinary dogmatism is long overdue. We claim that improvements in fisheries management will be realized not through the promotion of technical fixes but instead by embracing and responding to the complexity of the management problem.     

Ørkenspredningen i Sudan-Sahel regionen—et af tidens alvorlige problemer/Et spændende og markant 100 års minde—om et helt fantastisk menneske!/De fynske landsbyers historie

Erland Porsmose: De fynske landsbyers historie: i dyrkningsfællesskabets tid. Odense University studies in history and social sciences, Vol. 109.     

Risk and vulnerability analysis in practice: evaluation of analyses conducted in Swedish municipalities

Risk and vulnerability analysis (RVA) can benefit the process of preventing and preparing for disasters, both by generating a basis for making decisions and by enhancing risk awareness, safety culture and response capacity through the RVA process itself. In studying and understanding the practices related to RVA, insights can be gained regarding ways in which the RVA can be improved in society, as well as into how methods for RVA can be designed to suit the particular context. However, studies of this sort are rare. This paper presents an evaluation of RVA performed by Swedish municipalities, which are important actors in the Swedish emergency management system. This is done by employing a systematic, design science approach outlined in the paper. Document studies and interviews were used to collect data on the analyses performed by the municipalities, and the evaluation shows that there is room for improvement. The results can be especially relevant for municipalities developing their RVA practices, as well as for other actors performing similar types of analyses.     

Calibration framework for a Kalman filter applied to a groundwater model

The paper presents a novel approach to the setup of a Kalman filter by using an automatic calibration framework for estimation of the covariance matrices. The calibration consists of two sequential steps: (1) Automatic calibration of a set of covariance parameters to optimize the performance of the system and (2) adjustment of the model and observation variance to provide an uncertainty analysis relying on the data instead of ad-hoc covariance values. The method is applied to a twin-test experiment with a groundwater model and a colored noise Kalman filter. The filter is implemented in an ensemble framework. It is demonstrated that lattice sampling is preferable to the usual Monte Carlo simulation because its ability to preserve the theoretical mean reduces the size of the ensemble needed. The resulting Kalman filter proves to be efficient in correcting dynamic error and bias over the whole domain studied. The uncertainty analysis provides a reliable estimate of the error in the neighborhood of assimilation points but the simplicity of the covariance models leads to underestimation of the errors far from assimilation points.     

The Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005, 15–42 ka. Part 1: constructing the time scale

The Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005, GICC05, is extended back to 42 ka b2k (before 2000 AD), i.e. to the end of Greenland Stadial 11. The chronology is based on independent multi-parameter counting of annual layers using comprehensive high-resolution measurements available from the North Greenland Ice Core Project, NGRIP. These are measurements of visual stratigraphy, conductivity of the solid ice, electrolytical melt water conductivity and the concentration of Na⁺, Ca²⁺, SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻, NH₄⁺. An uncertainty estimate of the time scale is obtained from identification of ‘uncertain’ annual layers, which are counted as 0.5±0.5 years. The sum of the uncertain annual layers, the so-called maximum counting error of the presented chronology ranges from 4% in the warm interstadial periods to 7% in the cold stadials. The annual accumulation rates of the stadials and interstadials are on average one-third and half of the present day values, respectively, and the onset of the Greenland Interstadials 2, 3, and 8, based on 20 year averaged δ¹⁸O values, are determined as 23,340, 27,780, and 38,220 yr b2k in GICC05.