Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.     

SrNdPb geochemical morphology between 10° and 17°N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge: A new MORB isotope signature

Basalts dredged along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge axis between 10°N and 17°N have been studied for their trace element characteristics [1]. To give complementary information on mantle source history and magma genesis, these samples have been analysed for their SrNdPb isotopic compositions. There is a good correlation between the structure of the ridge axis which shows a topographic anomaly centered around 14°N and hygromagmaphile element ratios such as Rb/Sr, (Nb/Zr)_N or Sm/Nd as well as isotopic ratios plotted as a function of latitude. The samples coming from the 14°N topographic high show new MORB SrNd isotopic characteristics which pictured in a classical mantle array diagram, put their representative points close to HIMU sources of ocean islands such as St. Helena, Tubuaïand Mangaia. The 14°N mantle source presents geochemical characteristics which indicate mantle differentiation processes and a mantle history that are more distinct than so far envisaged from typical MORB data. Pb data indicates that the 14°N mantle source cannot be the result of binary mixing between a depleted mantle and a HIMU-type source. Rather, the enriched endmember could itself be a mixture of Walvis-like and HIMU-like materials. The geochimical observations presented favour the model of an incipient ridge-centered plume, in agreement with [1].     

Rainfall and the 6–9 day wave-like disturbance in West-Africa during summer 1989

Summary Using ECMWF analyses and daily rain amounts of 569 stations in Western Africa for summer 1989, the study documents the composite structure of the 6–9 day oscillation and its influence on rain. Rain is modulated by vorticity as displayed in the wave composite. There are rainfall maxima coincident with cyclonic vorticity and rainfall minima coincident with anticyclonic vorticity at the 700hPa level, at 17.5°N and 7.5°N.With 6 Figures     

Geochemical comparison between minettes and kersantites from the Western European Hercynian orogen: trace element and PbSrNd isotope constraints on their origin

Trace element and isotopic characteristics of late Carboniferous to early Permian minettes and kersantites have been determined. These lamprophyres have been sampled throughout the Western European Hercynian orogen, from Brittany to the west to Schwarzwald to the east. In spite of sharp petrological differences reflected by mineralogy and major element geochemistry, minettes and kersantites exhibit close identity with respect to trace element and isotopic features. These features comprise enrichment in incompatible elements, highCs/Rb and lowCe/Pb ratios, Ta and Ti relative depletion, high abundance in transition elements and highNi/Mg ratios. Pb isotope ratios are undistinguishable from those measured on Hercynian continental crust. Initial¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios are between0.5120 (ε_i −5) and0.5122 (ε_i −1) for minettes and kersantites whereas initial⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios vary between 0.7055–0.710 for minettes and 0.707–0.708 for kersantites. No simple mixing relations are visible on RbSr and SmNd isochron diagrams. The exceptional homogeneity of these geochemical characteristics along a 1000 km traverse does not allow for an hypothesis of enrichment through upper level assimilation and thus leads to propose that these rocks originated through melting of a mantle enriched by recycling of crustal material.     

Microstructural Inhomogeneity and Mechanical Anisotropy Associated with Bedding in Rothbach Sandstone

This study present the result of conventional triaxial tests conducted on samples of Rothbach sandstone cored parallel, oblique (at 45 degrees) and perpendicular to the bedding at effective pressures ranging from 5 to 250 MPa. Mechanical and microstructural data were used to determine the role of the bedding on mechanical strength and failure mode. We find that samples cored at 45 degrees to the bedding yield at intermediate level of differential stress between the ones for parallel and perpendicular samples at all effective pressures. Strain localization at high confining pressure (i.e., in the compactive domain) is observed in samples perpendicular and oblique to the bedding but not in samples cored parallel to the bedding. However, porosity reduction is comparable whether compactive shear bands, compaction bands or homogeneous cataclastic flow develop. Microstructural data suggest that (1) mechanical anisotropy is controlled by a preferred intergranular contact alignment parallel to the bedding and that (2) localization of compaction is controlled by bedding laminations and grain scale heterogeneity, which both prevent the development of well localized compaction features.     

Temporal Evolution of the Solar-Wind Electron Core Density at Solar Minimum by Correlating SWEA Measurements from STEREO A and B

The twin STEREO spacecraft provide a unique tool to study the temporal evolution of the solar-wind properties in the ecliptic since their longitudinal separation increases with time. We derive the characteristic temporal variations at ～?1 AU between two different plasma parcels ejected from the same solar source by excluding the spatial variations from our datasets. As part of the onboard IMPACT instrument suite, the SWEA electron experiment provides the solar-wind electron core density at two different heliospheric vantage points. We analyze these density datasets between March and August 2007 and find typical solar minimum conditions. After adjusting for the theoretical time lag between the two spacecraft, we compare the two density datasets. We find that their correlation decreases as the time difference increases between two ejections. The correlation coefficient is about 0.80 for a time lag of a half day and 0.65 for two days. These correlation coefficients from the electron core density are somewhat lower than the ones from the proton bulk velocity obtained in an earlier study, though they are still high enough to consider the solar wind as persistent after two days. These quantitative results reflect the variability of the solar-wind properties in space and time, and they might serve as input for solar-wind models.     

Rotational Properties of Cometary Nuclei

We review several techniques used to retrieve rotational parameters from observations. The spin period of a dozen of comets retrieved with these techniques are summarized. We describe how the spin period of comet Hale-Bopp (C/1995 O1) has been calculated with a high accuracy (11.30–11.34 h). Although several authors converged to a spin axis orientation at (α,δ) = (275 ± 15°, -55 ± 5°), detailed studies indicate that the dust jets morphology in 1996–1997 may be incompatible with this orientation. Comet 19P/Borrelly has been recently observed by the Deep Space 1 spacecraft. At the same time, its spin axis orientation and period have been determined by several authors to be respectively (α,δ) = (225 ± 15°, -10 ± 10°)and 26h. These two comets are likely to be in (or close to) a principal axis spin state. We discuss new modeling of the spin state of comet 46P/Wirtanen, the target of the Rosetta mission. The model involves a three-dimensional shape and thermal model, from which the torque of the non gravitational force is calculated at each time step. The moments of inertia are computed for each irregular shape. The results from numerical integrations show that this comet can remain in a principal axis spin state during more than 10 orbits if the spin period does not get above～6 h. If the spin period increases, its nucleus gets rapidly into excited spin states. It shows that even small and very active short-period comets are not necessarily in non principal axis spin states. In the last section, the consequences of recent observations and modeling of the rotational parameters of comet nuclei are discussed, and unsolved problems are presented.     

The Ebro Deep-Sea Fan system

The Ebro Fan System consists of en echelon channel-levee complexes, 50×20 km in area and 200-m thick. A few strong reflectors in a generally transparent seismic facies identify the sand-rich channel floors and levee crests. Numerous continuous acoustic reflectors characterize overbank turbidites and hemipelagites that blanket abandoned channel-levee complexes. The interlobe areas between channel complexes fill with homogeneous mud and sand from mass flow and overbank deposition; these exhibit a transparent seismic character. The steep continental rise and sediment “drainage” of Valencia Trough at the end of the channel-levee complexes prevent the development of distributary channels and midfan lobe deposits. Margin setting represents fan and/or source area     

Paleo-stress orientations from calcite twins in the North Pyrenean foreland, determined by the Etchecopar inverse method

During the last decade, it has been shown that accurate analyses of calcite twinning in thin section may allow computation of the paleo-deviatoric stress tensor associated with this deformation. Following from the work of Larroque and Laurent (1988), and Lacombe et al. (1989), this is a new application of the Etchecopar inverse method. Weakly deformed limestones from about 150 to 200 km north of the Pyrenean chain (South France) were studied. The Etchecopar inverse method, which can be used on a microcomputer, is comparable to the method of analysis of striated fault planes proposed by Etchecopar et al. in 1981, as it determines the principal stress orientations and the stress ellipsoid shape ratio φ = (σ₂ − σ₃)/(σ₁ − σ₃). The Etchecopar method using calcite twins has been selected for this study because it is suitable for the determination of polyphase deformation in coarse-grained limestones (Lacombe et al. 1989).

Ten samples of oolitic limestones, cemented with sparry calcite, from the Bajocian (170 Ma) and the Oligocene (30 Ma) were studied. For each of them, only one or two stress tensors were determined: the first is characterized by a principal compressive stress axis σ₁ which is horizontal and approximately N-S. Local departures from this orientation have been observed and are interpreted as local stress perturbations. For the second, which was defined in the Oligocene, but occurred only locally in the Jurassic limestones, the position of σ₁ is nearly vertical; the direction of extension σ₃ is either NE-SW or undefined into the horizontal plane (σ₂ = σ₃); this radial extension is interpreted as the result of two or more superposed extensive deformation phases with vertical σ₁. The N-S compression was never found in the Oligocene limestones, and from its orientation, it is assumed to correspond to the Pyrenean deformation. These results are compared to the more complex deformation pattern obtained from classical microtectonical studies (Arthaud and Choukroune, 1972; Bonijoly and Blès, 1983; Granier and Blès, 1988; Blès et al., 1989). Only the major tectonic events are recorded by calcite twinning. Finally, the suitability of calcite twin analyses for the determination of complex polyphase deformation is discussed.