Innovative trend analysis of main agriculture natural hazards in China during 1989–2014

Natural Hazards - China is a country where the agricultural areas are frequently affected by natural hazards, and comprehending the change trends of natural hazards is of great significance to...     

Regionally optimized forest management under changing climate

The purpose of this study was to optimize forest management for a forest region (the total area of forest and scrub land 1.54 mill. ha) under changing climate by using the large-scale forestry scenario model MELA and sample plot data from the geo-referenced National Forest Inventory (NFI). The MELA model is based on integrated simulation and optimisation; in the simulation it utilises empirical tree-level models into which the impacts of climate change were introduced by transfer variables derived by using the physiological model FinnFor. Six scenarios with differences in climate and forest management were defined. In simulations, the accelerating tree growth caused by climate change resulted in an increase in maximum sustainable removal of trees at regional level. Changes in regionally optimized forest management were also detected during the analysis period of 30 years; the proportion of thinnings increased because the stands fulfilled the thinning requirements earlier than in the current climate. This study was the first attempt to solve endogenously maximum sustainable timber production and corresponding forest management at the regional level under different climate scenarios. When implemented in the MELA system, which is widely used in Finnish forestry, the transfer variables offer means of disseminating the results from physiological studies to planning of adjustment and mitigation measures under changing climate.     

BDS载波相位时频传递性能分析

采用GFZ精密卫星轨道、钟差和MGEX测站观测数据,分析BDS载波相位时频传递性能。在KARR站BDS可视卫星数较多（平均为10.1颗）时,BDS时间传递精度为0.2 ns,与GPS、GLONASS相当;在PTVL站BDS可视卫星较少（平均为6.9颗）时,平均TDOP为3.5,大于GPS和GLONASS,其时间传递精度较低,仅为0.68 ns,差于GPS和GLONASS。目前,由于BDS全球跟踪站有限,MEO卫星较少,BDS收敛时间长于GPS和GLONASS。两测站三系统频率传递结果和频率稳定度结果基本相当,变化趋势一致。因测站KARR、PTVL未配备高稳定度的原子钟作为外接频标,得到的频率传递精度和频率稳定度较差。     

Model Computations of the Impact of Climatic Change on the Windthrow Risk of Trees

The more humid, warmer weather pattern predicted for the future is expected to increase the windthrow risk of trees through reduced tree anchorage due to a decrease in soil freezing between late autumn and early spring, i.e during the most windy months of the year. In this context, the present study aimed at calculating how a potential increase of up to 4°C in mean annual temperature might modify the duration of soil frost and the depth of frozen soil in forests and consequently increase the risk of windthrow. The risk was evaluated by combining the simulated critical windspeeds needed to uproot Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) under unfrozen soil conditions with the possible change in the frequency of these winds during the unfrozen period. The evaluation of the impacts of elevated temperature on the frequency of these winds at times of unfrozen and frozen soil conditions was based on monthly wind speed statistics for the years 1961–1990 (Meteorological Yearbooks of Finland, 1961–1990). Frost simulations in a Scots pine stand growing on a moraine sandy soil (height 20 m, stand density 800 stems ha–1) showed that the duration of soil frost will decrease from 4–5 months to 2–3 months per year in southern Finland and from 5–6 months to 4–5 months in northern Finland given a temperature elevation of 4°C. In addition, it could decrease substantially more in the deeper soil layers (40–60 cm) than near the surface (0–20 cm), particularly in southern Finland. Consequently, tree anchorage may lose much of the additional support gained at present from the frozen soil in winter, making Scots pines more liable to windthrow during winter and spring storms. Critical wind-speed simulations showed mean winds of 11–15 m s–1 to be enough to uproot Scots pines under unfrozen soil conditions, i.e. especially slender trees with a high height to breast height diameter ratio (taper of 1:120 and 1:100). In the future, as many as 80% of these mean winds of 11–15 m s–1 would occur during months when the soil is unfrozen in southern Finland, whereas the corresponding proportion at present is about 55%. In northern Finland, the percentage is 40% today and is expected to be 50% in the future. Thus, as the strongest winds usually occur between late autumn and early spring, climate change could increase the loss of standing timber through windthrow, especially in southern Finland.     

Trace metal and geochemical variability during 5,500 years in the sediment of Lake Lehmilampi,Finland

A high-resolution geochemical profile from a 5,500-year-old sediment core of Lake Lehmilampi in eastern Finland was analyzed to study long-term trends and variability in element concentrations and accumulation rates. The accumulation rates of all studied elements followed the same trend, responding to changes in the total sedimentation rate. Concentration profiles differed among elements and showed considerable variation over time. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used on the concentration data to identify groups of elements that have similar geochemical controls. The first principal component was influenced by changes in mineral matter accumulation, and it incorporated elements that are associated with stable allochthonous minerals (such as Mg, K, Cs, Rb, Li, Ti and Ga), as well as elements in forms that become diluted when mineral matter increases (e.g., S, Fe and Mn). The second and third principal components showed that a large proportion of the variance was accounted for by elements with continuously increasing or decreasing concentrations related to pedogenetical development of the catchment soil. In the case of Hg, Pb and Cd, however, accumulation rates increased faster at the surface than is simply accounted for by changes in total sedimentation rates. For Cu, Cr, Ni and Zn, concentrations increased over the past 150 years, but there were no indications of a significant addition due to atmospheric deposition. These elements had more variable concentrations before the mid nineteenth century than after, as did elements that are often used for normalization. These findings suggest that lake sediments may not properly reflect the history of atmospheric metal deposition in remote areas.     

August–September Runoff Variation in the Kara Darya River Determined from Juniper(Juniperus turkestanica) Tree Rings in the Pamirs-Alai Mountains,Kyrgyzstan, Back to 1411 CE

A 606 year runoff reconstruction of the Kara Darya River was developed, based on the tree-ring width chronology of Turkestan juniper(Juniperus turkestanica) from the Pamir-Alai Mountains of Kyrgyzstan. Preliminary comparison between the snow cover variation and these climate/runoff reconstructions found that Central Asian snow cover may have strong associations with large-scale ocean-atmosphere-land circulations. The runoff reconstruction demonstrated that instrumental runoff was not representat...     

REMOTE SENSING OF THE SEASONAL VARIATION IN COLUMN ABUNDANCE OF ATMOSPHERIC CH_4

Infrared solar spectra on clear days were measured automatically by an infrared solarspectrometer(ISS)with 0.4 cm~(-1) resolution developed by us.A line-by line(LBL)computationmethod was used to calculate theoretical atmospheric absorption.In the wavelength range of 3.410—3.438 μm.the absorption is mainly due to atmospheric methane and water vapor.Columnatmospheric methane was retrieved from the recorded infrared solar spectra.The seasonal variationof column atmospheric methane in Hefei has been obtained from the measuremental data of nearly18 months since the April of 1997.and found that it is similar to that of background data.Theinstruments.principles of measurement and some of results were introduced,and the results arealso discussed briefly in the paper.     

Impacts of climate change on the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland

This work studied the temporal and spatial variability of the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland under current and changing climatic conditions until the end of this century. The study was based on a snow accumulation model in which cumulative precipitation, air temperature and wind speed were used as input variables. The risk was analyzed in terms of the number of days per year when the accumulated amount of snow exceeded 20 kg m^???2. Based on the risk, the forest area and mean carbon stock of seedling, young thinning and advanced thinning stands at risk were calculated. Furthermore, the number of 5-day periods, when the accumulated amount of snow exceeded a risk limit, was calculated for the current and changing climatic conditions in order to study the frequency of damaging snowfalls. Compared to the baseline period 1961–1990, the risk of snow-induced forest damage and the amount of damaging snowfalls were predicted to decrease from the first 30-year period (1991–2020) onwards. Over the whole country, the mean annual number of risk days decreased by 11%, 23% and 56% in the first, second and third 30-year period, respectively, compared to the baseline period. In the most hazardous areas in north-western and north-eastern Finland, the number of risk days decreased from the baseline period of over 30 days to about 8 days per year at the end of the century. Correspondingly, the shares of the forest area at risk were 1.9%, 2.0% and 1.0% in the first, second and third 30-year period, respectively. The highest mean annual carbon stocks of young stands at risk were found in central, north-eastern and north-western Finland in the first and second 30-year period, varying between 0.6 and 1.2 Mg C ha^???1 year^???1, meaning at highest 3% of the mean carbon stock (Mg C stem wood ha^???1) of those areas. This study showed that although the risk of snow-induced forest damage was mainly affected by changes in critical weather events, the development of growing stock under the changing climatic conditions also had an effect on the risk assessment. However, timely management of forest stands in the areas with a high risk of snow-induced damage contributes to the trees’ increased resistance to the damage.     

基于BDS+GPS中长基线多频RTK定位的快速收敛模型

随着全球卫星导航系统(GNSS)进入多系统时代,天空中导航卫星的可见数不断增加,而我国北斗卫星导航系统(BDS)也已开始面向用户提供三频导航信号,这都有利于改善RTK定位的精度和可靠性。本文提出了一种BDS+GPS中长基线多频RTK定位算法,先以较高成功率快速固定BDS的两个超宽巷模糊度,继而通过简单变换得到BDS宽巷模糊度,然后用其辅助提高GPS宽巷模糊度固定成功率,最后采用将电离层延迟误差和对流层延迟误差参数化的策略以加快窄巷模糊度浮点解的收敛速度,缩短模糊度首次固定的时间。结合实测数据进行的验证分析结果表明,利用本文算法对模糊度进行解算是可行的。     

GNSS单站授时系统性偏差分析

从单站授时基本观测方程出发,对引起系统性偏差的原因进行研究,结合具体实验分析卫星钟差和接收机硬件延迟对授时结果的影响。实验结果表明,卫星钟差引起的系统性偏差随时间变化,对所有测站影响相同;接收机硬件延迟会对授时结果造成系统性偏差影响,不同测站的系统性偏差不同,其大小取决于各自接收机硬件延迟的偏差,在进行授时及时间同步时应当加以改正;接收机硬件延迟不影响授时结果频率的稳定度,在进行频率传递时无需改正。