SLM和LPM模型日径流模拟对比分析——以陕西黑河为例

本文以黑河流域为例,根据可能收集的资料,试用SLM和LPM模型对日径流量进行了模拟和模拟精度检验,并对各模型的模拟结果作了对比分析,结果表明:①LPM可用于参考性预报,而SLM不能用于参考性预报,只能作参考性估报;②由于LPM模型吸收了季节变化信息,其检验期和率定期的评定效率均较高.结论:较之SLM,LPM模型的有效性和可靠性都有很大的提高,而且在一定程度上消减了洪峰预报误差,考虑了洪峰非线性变化的影响.     

BDS单历元TCAR算法优化研究

鉴于多频导航信号对模糊度解算AR带来的巨大优势,新一代的全球卫星导航系统都对多频信号体制进行了设计。基于三频观测的经典TCAR模型由于忽略双差电离层残差影响,仅适用于短基线解算。在基于几何的TCAR模型的基础上,通过对伪距观测量以及模糊度得到固定的超宽巷EWL和宽巷WL观测量进行线性组合得到了具有最低噪声的消电离层组合观测量;并将其引入到第3步窄巷NL模糊度解算中,以提高NL模糊度解算成功率;最后结合实测北斗三频数据进行了分析验证。结果表明,优化后的TCAR模型可有效提高NL模糊度固定成功率。     

BDS/GPS短期ISB建模和预报的Kalman滤波方法

ISB是多系统PPP数据处理中必须要考虑的一项误差,因此有必要对BDS/GPS短期ISB建模和预报进行研究。为了提高ISB预报精度,针对等权LS(least square)估计ISB模型参数时忽略了拟合数据权重不同的问题,提出了采用Kalman滤波对模型参数进行估计,并根据ISB拟合数据距预报时刻的远近调整Kalman滤波拟合数据的方差。本文采用7d的ISB数据进行建模,根据所建模型预报第8天的ISB值,并对预报精度和定位结果进行了验证。进行试验的4个测站Kalman拟合模型的ISB预报精度比LS拟合模型分别提高了29.7%、11.5%、43.5%和32.0%。采用Kalman拟合模型的ISB预报值作为先验约束,PPP平均定位精度在E和U方向上比采用LS拟合模型预报值分别多提高了2.7%和0.9%,比不加ISB先验约束在E、N、U方向分别提高了10.6%、26.3%和3.4%。     

基于多种方法的小型蒸发与E-601型蒸发器蒸发量折算分析及应用

【目的】探明贵阳蒸发量特征,为该市山塘水库蓄水等方面提供参考。【方法】利用贵阳市1983—2001年小型与E-601型蒸发器同期观测资料,运用折算系数法、线性回归法和多元回归法对小型蒸发量进行折算并与E-601型蒸发量对比检验,选择最优方法折算小型蒸发资料延长大型蒸发序列,进而对蒸发量特征进行研究。【结果】小型与E-601型蒸发量之间存在显著相关。气温越高、日照越长、湿度越低、云量越少,蒸发量就越大,反之越低。小型较E-601型蒸发量年平均偏大61.3%,各月偏大43.5%~78.1%。E-601型蒸发器测量的蒸发值更能代表当地气候特征。折算系数、线性回归、多元回归模型均能对小型蒸发量进行较好地折算,为延长大型蒸发序列提供科学依据,其中线性回归法和折算系数法简单快捷,而多元回归模型则更适用于日值折算,计算较复杂。【结论】近62 a来贵阳市蒸发量呈增多趋势,其中上半年趋于减少,下半年趋于增多;结合降水量计算水分盈亏量发现贵阳市夏半年水分盈余集中期出现在5—7月,冬半年水分亏损期长,留冬用水充足。     

Ejective and Sweeping Motions Above a Peatland and Their Role in Relaxed-Eddy-Accumulation Measurements and Turbulent Transport Modelling

The three turbulent velocity components, water vapour (\(\text {H}_2\text {O}\)), carbon dioxide (\(\text {CO}_{2}\)), and methane (\(\text {CH}_{4}\)) concentration fluctuations are measured above a boreal peatland and analyzed using conditional sampling and quadrant analysis. The overarching question to be addressed is to what degree lower-order cumulant expansion methods describe transport efficiency and the relative importance of ejections and sweeps to momentum, \(\text {CH}_{4}\), \(\text {CO}_{2}\) and \(\text {H}_2\text {O}\) fluxes across a range of atmospheric flow regimes. The patchy peatland surface creates distinctly different source and sink distributions for the three scalars in space and time thereby adding to the uniqueness of the set-up. The measured and modelled fractional contributions to the momentum flux show that sweep events dominate over ejections in agreement with prior studies conducted in the roughness sublayer. For scalar fluxes, ejections dominate the turbulent fluxes over sweeps. While ejective motions persist longer for momentum transport, sweeping events persist longer for all three scalars. Third-order cumulant expansions describe many of the results detailed above, and the results are surprising given the highly non-Gaussian distribution of \(\text {CH}_{4}\) turbulent fluctuations. Connections between the asymmetric contributions of sweeps and ejections and the flux-transport term arising in scalar turbulent-flux-budget closure are derived and shown to agree reasonably well with measurements. The proposed model derived here is much simpler than prior structural models used to describe laboratory experiments. Implications of such asymmetric contributions on, (i) the usage of the now proliferating relaxed-eddy-accumulation method in turbulent flux measurements, (ii) the constant-flux assumption, and (iii) gradient-diffusion closure models are presented.     

一种卫星钟差精度评估方法

GNSS观测量测量的是测站与卫星间的相对时间延迟,卫星钟差求解的是相对于基准钟的相对钟差,因此卫星钟差的精度评估方法不同于其他GNSS产品。分析了卫星钟差的精度评估方法,采用消除卫星钟系统偏差的方法进行钟差精度的评估,得到的各产品的精度评定结果与各产品公布的钟差精度基本一致,证明了此方法的有效性。     

Adaptive management to climate change for Norway spruce forests along a regional gradient in Finland

We hypothesized that the responses of boreal Norway spruce (Picea abies) forests to climate change would be region-specific due to regional differences in temperature and water availability. In this context, we analyzed the adaptive effects of varied thinning intensities on the gross primary production (GPP), total stem wood growth, and timber yield over a 100-year period using a process-based ecosystem model. Our simulations represented Norway spruce forests for five different bioclimatic zones spanning southern to northern Finland (61–67^oN). Ten thinning regimes with thinning intensities ranging from 5 to 50 %, as well as an unthinned regime, were included in the calculations. The results showed that at the southern sites without thinning, the cumulative GPP and total stem wood growth were lower under the changing climate than in the current climate over the simulation period due to greater water depletion via evapotranspiration and reduced soil water availability. At the central and the northern sites, the climate changes increasingly enhanced the GPP and total stem wood growth due to the mitigation of low-temperature limitation and the improved soil water availability. Thinning generally mitigated the soil water deficit by reducing water evaporation and led to a reduction of the natural mortality. At the southern sites, light and moderate thinning intensities increased the GPP and total stem wood growth relative to sites with a changing climate that experienced no thinning. Moreover, moderate thinning resulted in the greatest timber yield. Heavy thinning, in which a large proportion of standing trees were removed, reduced the GPP and total stem wood growth despite allowing increased soil water availability. At the northern sites, all levels of thinning, including light thinning, decreased the GPP and stem wood growth, indicating that soil water availability was not a limiting factor for growth prior to thinning.     

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大气水汽的红外遥感

本文讨论了利用差分吸收法来遥感大气中的水汽。水汽透过率用辐射计测量，水汽含量由我们自行编制的红外辐射大气透过率计算程序计算。在此同时还观测了气象参数，以确定光路上的水汽含量。结果表明，水汽长度的计算值和测量值非常吻合，回归曲线的相关系数达０．９７，均方根偏差为０．０１５ｇ／ｃｍ２。文中最后讨论误差来源和改善精度的途径，并指出对其它气体分子的吸收和气溶胶的消光进行修正的必要性。     

时频传递的改进整数相位钟方法

整数相位钟法是精密单点定位（PPP）中应用最广泛的模糊度固定方法之一。利用整数相位钟法进行频率传递的稳定度优于传统PPP,但该方法的钟差计算结果包含系统性偏差,影响时间传递精度。本文介绍了整数相位钟法基本原理,分析了钟差计算结果所包含的系统性偏差成因,提出一种基于星间单差模糊度固定与原子钟精化模型的改进整数相位钟法,并检验改进整数相位钟法的模糊度固定性能与时频传递性能。试验结果表明,改进算法能够有效消除该系统性偏差,利用改进整数相位钟法进行时间传递精度能够达到0.1~0.2 ns,频率传递稳定度达到1.1×10^-15/d。