The effect of submerged plateaux on Pleistocene gyral circulation and sea-surface temperatures in the Southwest Pacific

Uniquely in the Southern Hemisphere the New Zealand micro-continent spans the interface between a subtropical gyre and the Subantarctic Circumpolar Current. Its 20° latitudinal extent includes a complex of submerged plateaux, ridges, saddles and basins which, in the present interglacial, are partial barriers to circulation and steer the Subtropical (STF) and Subantarctic (SAF) fronts. This configuration offers a singular opportunity to assess the influence of bottom topography on oceanic circulation through Pleistocene glacial – interglacial (G/I) cycles, its effect on the location and strength of the fronts, and its ability to generate significant differences in mixed layer thermal history over short distances.For this study we use new planktic foraminiferal based sea-surface temperature (SST) estimates spanning the past 1 million years from a latitudinal transect of four deep ocean drilling sites. We conclude that: 1. the effect of the New Zealand landmass was to deflect the water masses south around the bathymetric impediments; 2. the effect of a shallow submerged ridge on the down-current side (Chatham Rise), was to dynamically trap the STF along its crest, in stark contrast to the usual glacial–interglacial (G–I) meridional migration that occurs in the open ocean; 3. the effect of more deeply submerged, downstream plateaux (Campbell, Bounty) was to dynamically trap the SAF along its steep southeastern margin; 4. the effects of saddles across the submarine plateaux was to facilitate the development of jets of subtropical and subantarctic surface water through the fronts, forming localized downstream gyres or eddies during different phases in the G–I climate cycles; 5. the deep Pukaki Saddle across the Campbell-Bounty Plateaux guided a branch of the SAF to flow northwards during each glacial, to form a strong gyre of circumpolar surface water in the Bounty Trough, especially during the mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition (MIS 22-16) when exceptionally high SST gradients existed across the STF; 6. the shallower Mernoo Saddle, at the western end of the Chatham Rise, provided a conduit for subtropical water to jet southwards across the STF in the warmest interglacial peaks (MIS 11, 5.5) and for subantarctic water to flow northwards during glacials; 7. although subtropical or subantarctic drivers can prevail at a particular phase of a G–I cycles, it appears that the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is the main influence on the regional hydrography.Thus complex submarine topography can affect distinct differences in the climate records over short distances with implications for using such records in interpreting global or regional trends. Conversely, the local topography can amplify the paleoclimate record in different ways in different places, thus enhancing its value for the study of more minor paleoceanographic influences that elsewhere are more difficult to detect. Such sites include DSDP 594, which like some other Southern Ocean sites, has the typical late Pleistocene asymmetrical saw-tooth G–I climate pattern transformed to a gap-tooth pattern of quasi-symmetrical interglacial spikes that interrupt extended periods of minimum glacial temperatures.     

On the treatment of uncertainties in the development of fragility functions for earthquake loss estimation of building portfolios

State‐of‐the‐art methods for the assessment of building fragility consider the structural capacity and seismic demand variability in the estimation of the probability of exceeding different damage states. However, questions remain regarding the appropriate treatment of such sources of uncertainty from a statistical significance perspective. In this study, material, geometrical and mechanical properties of a number of building classes are simulated by means of a Monte Carlo sampling process in which the statistical distribution of the aforementioned parameters is taken into consideration. Record selection is performed in accordance with hazard‐consistent distributions of a comprehensive set of intensity measures, and issues related with sufficiency, efficiency, predictability and scaling robustness are addressed. Based on the appraised minimum number of ground motion records required to achieve statistically meaningful estimates of response variability conditioned on different levels of seismic intensity, the concept of conditional fragility functions is presented. These functions translate the probability of exceeding a set of damage states as a function of a secondary sufficient intensity measure, when records are selected and scaled for a particular level of primary seismic intensity parameter. It is demonstrated that this process allows a hazard‐consistent and statistically meaningful representation of uncertainty and correlation in the estimation of intensity‐dependent damage exceedance probabilities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Proposed design models for the asymmetric friction connection

The Asymmetric Friction Connection (AFC) remains elastic during moderate earthquake shaking but slides and dissipates energy through friction during severe earthquake shaking. The sliding friction forces developed are dependent on the clamping force in the connection which is provided by fully tensioned bolts which pass through slotted holes. During sliding these bolts are subject to moment and shear as well as axial force. Moment–shear–axial force interaction reduces the clamping axial force on the sliding interfaces thereby reducing the sliding shear resistance (V_ss). Two methods to evaluate the moment–shear–axial force interaction have been proposed so that the sliding shear strength can be quantified, but as yet, these methods are not robust. This paper describes the results of 60 tests undertaken to improve the two methods, namely the moment–shear–axial force bolt model and the effective coefficient of friction method, for AFCs with high hardness steel shims. The bolts were M16 to M30 bolts and cleat thicknesses ranged from 12 mm to 25 mm. It is shown that either method may be used in design as the results obtained are similar. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Astrodynamical Space Test of Relativity Using Optical Devices I (ASTROD I)—A class-M fundamental physics mission proposal for Cosmic Vision 2015–2025

ASTROD I is a planned interplanetary space mission with multiple goals. The primary aims are: to test general relativity with an improvement in sensitivity of over three orders of magnitude, improving our understanding of gravity and aiding the development of a new quantum gravity theory; to measure key solar system parameters with increased accuracy, advancing solar physics and our knowledge of the solar system; and to measure the time rate of change of the gravitational constant with an order of magnitude improvement and the anomalous Pioneer acceleration, thereby probing dark matter and dark energy gravitationally. It is an international project, with major contributions from Europe and China and is envisaged as the first in a series of ASTROD missions. ASTROD I will consist of one spacecraft carrying a telescope, four lasers, two event timers and a clock. Two-way, two-wavelength laser pulse ranging will be used between the spacecraft in a solar orbit and deep space laser stations on Earth, to achieve the ASTROD I goals. A second mission, ASTROD (ASTROD II) is envisaged as a three-spacecraft mission which would test General Relativity to 1 ppb, enable detection of solar g-modes, measure the solar Lense–Thirring effect to 10 ppm, and probe gravitational waves at frequencies below the LISA bandwidth. In the third phase (ASTROD III or Super-ASTROD), larger orbits could be implemented to map the outer solar system and to probe primordial gravitational-waves at frequencies below the ASTROD II bandwidth.

耀变体光学波段的微光变及能谱变化

耀变体在多个波段的微光变和能谱变化多年来是中外天文观测研究的热点课题.耀变体的微光变于20世纪60年代被发现,20世纪80年代以来发现很多源的微光变具有不同的特性,目前对其物理机制的认识和理论、模型的研究还处于发展阶段.该文总结了7个目前观测最多的耀变体(3C 66A,3C 279,3C 454.3,AO 0235+164,BL Lac,OJ 287,S5 0716+714)在光学波段的微光变和能谱变化的观测历史和最新进展,并对其理论模型作了简单介绍.     

Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 1: baseline climate

Assessing future climate and its potential implications on river flows is a key challenge facing water resource planners. Sound, scientifically-based advice to decision makers also needs to incorporate information on the uncertainty in the results. Moreover, existing bias in the reproduction of the ‘current’ (or baseline) river flow regime is likely to transfer to the simulations of flow in future time horizons, and it is thus critical to undertake baseline flow assessment while undertaking future impacts studies. This paper investigates the three main sources of uncertainty surrounding climate change impact studies on river flows: uncertainty in GCMs, in downscaling techniques and in hydrological modelling. The study looked at four British catchments’ flow series simulated by a lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff model with observed and GCM-derived rainfall series representative of the baseline time horizon (1961–1990). A block-resample technique was used to assess climate variability, either from observed records (natural variability) or reproduced by GCMs. Variations in mean monthly flows due to hydrological model uncertainty from different model structures or model parameters were also evaluated. Three GCMs (HadCM3, CCGCM2, and CSIRO-mk2) and two downscaling techniques (SDSM and HadRM3) were considered. Results showed that for all four catchments, GCM uncertainty is generally larger than downscaling uncertainty, and both are consistently greater than uncertainty from hydrological modelling or natural variability. No GCM or downscaling technique was found to be significantly better or to have a systematic bias smaller than the others. This highlights the need to consider more than one GCM and downscaling technique in impact studies, and to assess the bias they introduce when modelling river flows.     

Bacteriohopanepolyol biomarker composition of organic matter exported to the Arctic Ocean by seven of the major Arctic rivers

Bacteriohopanepolyols (BHPs) are a diverse group of membrane lipids produced by a wide variety of bacteria and can be used as molecular biomarkers for bacterial processes and populations in both modern and ancient environments. A group of BHPs, including adenosylhopane and structurally related compounds, have been identified as being specific to soils, enabling the transport of terrestrial organic matter (terrOM) to the marine realm to be monitored. Estuary surface sediment samples were obtained from the five Great Russian Arctic Rivers (GRARs; Ob, Yenisey, Lena, Indigirka and Kolyma) and river sediments were obtained from two North American Rivers (Yukon and Mackenzie). Analysis of the BHP signatures, using high performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC–MSⁿ), indicated the presence of 15 different BHPs originating from a variety of different bacteria, as well as a significant presence of terrestrially derived OM. Total BHP abundance and the contribution of the “soil-marker” BHPs to the total BHP pool increased eastwards among the GRAR sediments. This suggests increasing terrestrial OM or increased preservation of OM as a result of shorter periods of permafrost thawing. The North American rivers showed greatly differing BHP levels between the Yukon and Mackenzie rivers, with a greater BHP input and thus a relatively higher soil OM contribution from the Yukon. The Indigirka River basin in the eastern Siberian Arctic appeared to be the epicentre in the pan-Arctic BHP distribution trend, with the highest “soil-marker” BHPs but the lowest tetrafunctionalised BHPs. Aminobacteriohopanepentol, an indicator of aerobic methane oxidation, was observed in all the sediments, with the source being either the marine environment or methane producing terrestrial environments.