First Byurakan Spectral Sky Survey. Stars of Late Spectral Types. XI. Zone -7° ≤ δ ≤ -3°

The eleventh list of faint late M and carbon type stars detected on the plates of the First Byurakan Spectral Survey in zone -7° -3° and covering about 1000 square degrees is presented. From 126 detected stars, 88 are newly discovered objects: they are 6 carbon stars, 8 carbon star candidates, and 74 M-type stars; among the latter 38 (26 PSC + 12 FSC) are unclassified IRAS sources, and one object is an unclassified ROSAT source. Distances to the 6 newly discovered early-type carbon stars are estimated. Equatorial coordinates, red magnitudes, and spectral classes determined from the Palomar E-charts are provided. The lack of optical counterparts on Palomar O and E maps for two detected late M-type stars indicates a large variability in brightnesses of these objects (amplitude not smaller than 7.0 magnitude).     

Zircon and whole-rock Nd-Pb isotopic provenance of Middle and Upper Ordovician siliciclastic rocks, Argentine Precordillera

Graptolite‐bearing Middle and Upper Ordovician siliciclastic facies of the Argentine Precordillera fold‐thrust belt record the disintegration of a long‐lived Cambro‐Mid Ordovician carbonate platform into a series of tectonically partitioned basins. A combination of stratigraphic, petrographic, U‐Pb detrital zircon, and Nd‐Pb whole‐rock isotopic data provide evidence for a variety of clastic sediment sources. Four Upper Ordovician quartzo‐lithic sandstones collected in the eastern and central Precordillera yield complex U‐Pb zircon age spectra dominated by 1·05–1·10 Ga zircons, secondary populations of 1·22, 1·30, and 1·46 Ga, rare 2·2 and 1·8 Ga zircons, and a minor population (<2%) of concordant zircons in the 600–700 Ma range. Archaean‐age grains comprise <1% of all zircons analysed from these rocks. In contrast, a feldspathic arenite from the Middle Ordovician Estancia San Isidro Formation of the central Precordillera has two well‐defined peaks at 1·41 and 1·43 Ga, with no grains in the 600–1200 Ma range and none older than 1·70 Ga. The zircon age spectrum in this unit is similar to that of a Middle Cambrian quartz arenite from the La Laja Formation, suggesting that local basement rocks were a regional source of ca 1·4 Ga detrital zircons in the Precordillera Terrane from the Cambrian onwards. The lack of grains younger than 600 Ma in Upper Ordovician units reinforces petrographic data indicating that Ordovician volcanic arc sources did not supply significant material directly to these sedimentary basins. Nd isotopic data (n = 32) for Middle and Upper Ordovician graptolitic shales from six localities define a poorly mixed signal [ɛ_Nd(450 Ma) = −9·6 to −4·5] that becomes more regionally homogenized in Upper Ordovician rocks (−6·2 ± 1·0; T_DM = 1·51 ± 0·15 Ga; n = 17), a trend reinforced by the U‐Pb detrital zircon data. It is concluded that proximal, recycled orogenic sources dominated the siliciclastic sediment supply for these basins, consistent with rapid unroofing of the Precordillera Terrane platform succession and basement starting in Mid Ordovician time. Common Pb data for Middle and Upper Ordovician shales from the western and eastern Precordillera (n = 15) provide evidence for a minor (<30%) component that was likely derived from a high‐μ (U/Pb) terrane.     

Coronal disturbances

Time lapse movies acquired with the Sacramento Peak Observatory 6-in filter coronagraph very infrequently show dramatic transient events. Many of these events (at 1.04 < r/r < 1.20) are correlated with H activity at the limb, especially with large surges and eruptive prominences. Metric or centrimetric radio bursts are found associated with certain types of 5303 coronal events. The heights to which such disturbances will propagate can often be estimated from the green line movie data. We report the results of a study of all the examples of such transients observed during the last 16 years.     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

A model of impulsive loop flares revisited

A critical examination of the components of the recent impulsive loop flare model of Takakura is made. It is found that his analysis of the stability of the electron distribution resulting from anomalous heat conduction is in error and electron plasma waves would not be excited. Rather, in the regions where the electron/proton temperature ratioT _e/T _i 10, electrostatic ion-cyclotron waves would be excited and in the regions whereT _e 10, ion-acoustic waves would be excited. Ratios ofT _e/T _i 10 occur only in the late time development behind the conduction fronts. Since the anomalous resistivity due to electrostatic ion-cyclotron waves is fortuitously about 70% of the one used by Takakura, the general development will follow closely the one calculated by him. Because the anomalous resistivity due to ion-acoustic waves is about 95 times the one used by Takakura, the development in the parts of the loop whereT _e/T _i 10 for late times would be altered considerably.Also Guest Worker at NOAA Space Environment Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.     

The Upper Middle Rhine Valley as a risk area

The Upper Middle Rhine Valley, granted the status of a World Heritage site, is well known for its unique inner narrow valley of Quaternary age with its historical legacy of numerous medieval castles and old towns. Less known is that this has always been a risk area of floods and gravitative mass movements. Up to the recent past, mainly ice floods caused enormous damage. The inhabitants of the valley were well aware that they lived in a risk area, but they had learned to handle the flood hazard. With the demise of ice floods over the last 40 years, due to climate change and because of the additional heating of the river water by power plants, the awareness of flood hazards has been much diminished, in contrast to that of potential damage by rockfalls and landslides which were also much feared in the past, though at the local level only. Still in the people’s memory is the Kaub catastrophe of March 10, 1876, when 28 persons were killed by a landslide. Nowadays, even minor rockfalls are a major threat, as they will affect the much-used traffic lines on both banks of the river, in particular the railroads. Therefore, since 2002, on behalf of German Rail (Deutsche Bahn, DB), all problematic slopes have been protected by costly steel-ring nets, although they are an aesthetic problem by UNESCO standards. The feeling of absolute safety created among the public is only subjective, though, as planners are well aware of. Moreover, the impact of modern climate change on slope stability is nearly unknown. Therefore, it is still necessary to develop a risk map for the narrow valley, with emphasis on gravitational hazards.     

Structural elements in southeastern Quebec,northwestern Appalachians,Canada

An attempt is made to correlate and separate in terms of style and time two contrasting sets of structural elements in the northwestern part of the Appalachian Uplands in the Province of Quebec, Canada. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that a fold system with north-south trending axes is superimposed on a fold system with east-west axes. It is suggested that the two sets of structures represent pulses of one long-continued deformation accompanied by corresponding early and late phases of metamorphism.

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Zusammenfassung Es wurde versucht, in den Appalachen des südöstlichen Teiles der Provinz Quebec, Kanada, zwei ungleichzeitige tektonische Systeme verschiedenen Baustils zu trennen. Die komplexen Kleinstrukturen zeigen, da\ Ost-West streichende Faltenachsen von einer jüngeren Nord-Süd-Faltung überprägt worden sind. Der Autor ist der Meinung, da\ die zwei tektonischen Systeme, die von einer frühen und späten Phase der Metamorphose begleitet werden, den zeitlich getrennten Verformungsstadien einer Orogenese entsprechen.

     

The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.