Multi-model Bayesian assessment of climate change in the northern annular mode

A typical question in climate change analysis is whether a certain observed climate characteristic, like a pronounced anomaly or an interdecadal trend, is an indicator of anthropogenic climate change or still in the range of natural variability. Many climatic features are described by one-dimensional index time series, like for instance the global mean temperature or circulation indices. Here, we present a Bayesian classification approach applied to the time series of the northern annular mode (NAM), which is the leading mode of Northern Hemisphere climate variability. After a pronounced negative phase during the 1950s and 1960s, the observed NAM index reveals a distinct positive trend, which is also simulated by various climate model simulations under enhanced greenhouse conditions. The objective of this study is to decide whether the observed temporal evolution of the NAM may be an indicator of global warming. Given a set of prior probabilities for disturbed and undisturbed climate scenarios, the Bayesian decision theorem decides whether the observed NAM trend is classified in a control climate, a greenhouse-gas plus sulphate aerosol climate or a purely greenhouse-gas induced climate as derived from multi-model ensemble simulations.The three climate scenarios are well separated from each other in terms of the 30-year NAM trends. The multi-model ensembles contain a weak but statistically significant climate change signal in the form of an intensification of the NAM. The Bayesian classification suggests that the greenhouse-gas scenario is the most probable explanation for the observed NAM trend since 1960, even if a high prior probability is assigned to the control climate. However, there are still large uncertainties in this classification result because some periods at the end of the 19th century and during the “warm” 1920s are also classified in an anthropogenic climate, although natural forcings are likely responsible for this early NAM intensification. This demonstrates a basic shortcoming of the Bayesian decision theorem when it is based on one-dimensional index time series like the NAM index.     

Seasonal prediction of African precipitation with ECHAM4–T42 ensemble simulations using a multivariate MOS re-calibration scheme

A 15 member ensemble of 20th century simulations using the ECHAM4–T42 atmospheric GCM is utilized to investigate the potential predictability of interannual variations of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Common boundary conditions are the global sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice extent. A canonical correlation analysis (CCA) between observed and ensemble mean ECHAM4 precipitation over Africa is applied in order to identify the most predictable anomaly patterns of precipitation and the related SST anomalies. The CCA is then used to formulate a re-calibration approach similar to model output statistics (MOS) and to derive precipitation forecasts over Africa. Predictand is the climate research unit (CRU) gridded precipitation over Africa. As predictor we use observed SST anomalies, ensemble mean precipitation over Africa and a combined vector of mean sea level pressure, streamfunction and velocity potential at 850 hPa. The different forecast approaches are compared. Most skill for African precipitation forecasts is provided by tropical Atlantic (Gulf of Guinea) SST anomalies which mainly affect rainfall over the Guinean coast and Sahel. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences southern and East Africa, however with a lower skill. Indian Ocean SST anomalies, partly independent from ENSO, have an impact particularly on East Africa. As suggested by the large agreement between the simulated and observed precipitation, the ECHAM4 rainfall provides a skillful predictor for CRU precipitation over Africa. However, MOS re-calibration is needed in order to provide skillful forecasts. Forecasts using MOS re-calibrated model precipitation are at least as skillful as forecast using dynamical variables from the model or instantaneous SST. In many cases, MOS re-calibrated precipitation forecasts provide more skill. However, differences are not systematic for all regions and seasons, and often small.     

Origin,distribution, and alteration of asphalts at Chapopote Knoll,Southern Gulf of Mexico

Following the discovery of asphalt volcanism in the Campeche Knolls a research cruise was carried out in 2006 to unravel the nature of the asphalt deposits at Chapopote. The novel results support the concept that the asphalt deposits at the seafloor in 3000 m of water depth originate from the seepage of heavy petroleum with a density slightly greater than water. The released petroleum forms characteristic flow structures at the seafloor with surfaces that are ‘ropy’ or ‘rough’ similar to magmatic lava flows. The surface structures indicate that the viscosity of the heavy petroleum rapidly increases after extrusion due to loss of volatiles. Consequently, the heavy petroleum forms the observed asphalt deposit and solidifies. Detailed survey with a remotely operated vehicle revealed that the asphalts are subject to sequential alterations: e.g. volume reduction leading to the formation of visible cracks in the asphalt surface, followed by fragmentation of the entire deposit. While relatively fresh asphalt samples were gooey and sticky, older, fragmented pieces were found to be brittle without residual stickiness. Furthermore, there is evidence for petroleum seepage from below the asphalt deposits, leading to local up-doming and, sometimes, to whip-shaped extrusions. Extensive mapping by TV-guided tools of Chapopote Asphalt Volcano indicates that the main asphalt deposits occur at the south-western rim that borders a central, crater-like depression. The most recent asphalt deposit at Chapopote is the main asphalt field covering an area of ∼2000 m². Asphalt volcanism is distinct from oil and gas seepage previously described in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere because it is characterized by episodic intrusions of semi-solid hydrocarbons that spread laterally over a substantial area and produce structures with significant vertical relief. As Chapopote occurs at the crest of a salt structure it is inferred that asphalt volcanism is a secondary result of salt tectonism.     

Evaluation of burst liability in kimberlite using support vector machine

Due to the complex mechanisms of rockburst, there is no current effective method to reliably predict these events. A statistical learning method, support vector machine (SVM), is employed in this paper for kimberlite burst prediction. Four indicators \(\sigma_{\theta } ,\sigma_{c} ,\sigma_{t} ,W_{\text{ET}}\) are chosen as input indices for the SVM, which is trained using 108 groups of rockburst cases from around the world. Data uniformization is used to avoid negative impact of differing dimensions across the original data. Parameter optimization is embedded in the training process of the SVM to achieve optimized predictive ability. After training and optimization, the SVM reaches an accuracy of 95% in rock burst prediction for validation samples. The constructed SVM is then employed in kimberlite burst liability evaluation. The model indicated a moderate burst risk, which matches observed instances of rockburst at a diamond mine in north Canada. The SVM method ignores the focus on rockburst mechanisms, instead relying on representative indicators to develop a predictive model through self-learning. The prediction results show an excellent accuracy, which means this method has a potential application in rockburst prediction.     

Environmental Governance Meets Reality: A Micro-Scale Perspective on Sustainability Certification Schemes for Oil Palm Smallholders in Jambi,Sumatra

Abstract

Multi-stakeholder sustainability certification schemes have become a favorite instrument for applying good governance, though studies indicate their inefficiency at the producer level. In this study, we used a mixed-method approach to first, map the institutional context of independent oil-palm smallholders in rural Sumatra while, second, reflecting upon the impact of the Smallholder Standard proposed by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil on smallholder management practices. We hold that non-recognition of micro-scale perspectives within governance processes may partially explain noncompliance with certification principles among smallholders. The Smallholder Standard appears unable to mitigate challenges important for smallholders, who in turn cannot properly comply with it, due to problems including weather instability and high management costs. We suggest that certification schemes need to work on some overlooked but essential preconditions of good governance, namely gaining micro-level visibility and acceptance.     

Neotectonic basin and landscape evolution in the Eastern Cordillera of NW Argentina,Humahuaca Basin (~24°S)

The intermontane Quebrada de Humahuaca Basin (Humahuaca Basin) in the Eastern Cordillera of the southern Central Andes of NW Argentina (23°–24°S) records the evolution of a formerly contiguous foreland‐basin setting to an intermontane depositional environment during the late stages of Cenozoic Andean mountain building. This basin has been and continues to be subject to shortening and surface uplift, which has resulted in the establishment of an orographic barrier for easterly sourced moisture‐bearing winds along its eastern margin, followed by leeward aridification. We present new U–Pb zircon ages and palaeocurrent reconstructions suggesting that from at least 6 Ma until 4.2 Ma, the Humahuaca Basin was an integral part of a largely contiguous depositional system that became progressively decoupled from the foreland as deformation migrated eastward. The Humahuaca Basin experienced multiple cycles of severed hydrological conditions and subsequent re‐captured drainage, fluvial connectivity with the foreland and sediment evacuation. Depositional and structural relationships among faults, regional unconformities and deformed landforms reveal a general pattern of intrabasin deformation that appears to be associated with different cycles of alluviation and basin excavation in which deformation is focused on basin‐internal structures during or subsequent to phases of large‐scale sediment removal.     

Quality Assurance of Hydrocarbon Measurements for the German Tropospheric Research Focus (TFS)

In the German Focus on Tropospheric Research (TFS) independent quality assurance procedures were implemented in order to obtain information on data quality and comparability of the different measurements made in the different field campaigns. This paper describes the results for measurements of hydrocarbons using in-situ gas chromatographictechniques and off line analysis of samples collected in canisters (analysed by two central laboratories CL-1 and CL-2) and samples collected on adsorption tubes. The QA-procedures included comparisons with synthetic standards (prepared by EN 45001 certified laboratories), absolute calibration with a diffusion source, and an instrument/methodology comparison in ambient air. Harmonisation of the ambient measurements was achieved with a complex mixture (NCAR/BERLIOZ) containing 70 commonly observed hydrocarbons at mixing ratios of 0.2 to 10 ppb (mole fraction) in nitrogen, which was calibrated by referencing to hydrocarbon standards of the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST).For the certified synthetic standards, the experienced groups agreed to within ± 20% for most compounds. Much larger discrepancies were observed for the new Airmotec HC2010 instruments due to problems with identification, co-elution and blanks/memory effects. The results in ambient air were similar: Reasonable agreement was found for the results from the experienced groups with well characterised in situ instruments andfor the charcoal tubes, whereas larger discrepancies were observed for the results from new groups and instruments. For the latter, only selected compounds met the data quality objectives (DQO). The canister samples analysed by CL-2 were in good agreement with the reference instrument, whereas large deviations were found for a number of compounds in the analysis of the same canisters by CL-1. The results of the comparison provided the final basis for flagging and harmonising the data from all participants prior to their submission to the TFS central data bank.     

Geo-/Object-Coding for Local-Change Assessment

Missing availability of reliable and specific landscape data may pose substantial restrictions to successful exploitation of remote sensing data and fast implementation of GIS (Geo-Information Systems). The possibilities to document conditions with high spacial resolution at a given time and to review changing aspects by different disciplines represent opportunities for complex environmental programs.The article covers: geodata acquisition and processing, research, execution, and ergonomical/cognitive aspects. Application in inpenetrable terrain for research, landuse, and engineering requirements proved the feasibility especially in areas with high demand for timely, accurate, and comprehensive surveys.Airborne close-range sensing was developed to survey localities and regions. It is no competition to global-change monitoring and large area are mapping programs possible with remote sensing. Substituting only the bulk of field-work, leaving time for in-depth review in the field or in the office, the system provides a possibility to restudy points of interest.Exploitation of advanced metric cameras, specialized airborne platforms, and spatial overlay, recognition, and discrimination techniques form the backbone of the TOPOGRAMM approach. Multi-sectoral, multi-temporal, multi-spectral survey and processing methods rely basically on enlarged image scales additional to conventional aero-photogrammetry and analytic plotting. Measurements and identification, not primarily interpretation, allow to establish high-fidelity and high resolution geo-frameworks. Focussing on micro- and mesoscales, no emphasis is given to highest geometric accuracy used for geodetic surveys. Drawing near to the object allows extraction of thematical and semantical information, dimensions, and phenomelogy of objects hitherto only singularily available.

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