Seepage of methane at Jaco Scar,a slide caused by seamount subduction offshore Costa Rica

Methane (CH₄) concentrations and CH₄ stable carbon isotopic composition ( \( \delta^{13} {\text{C}}_{{{\text{CH}}_{4} }} \) ) were investigated in the water column within Jaco Scar. It is one of several scars formed by massive slides resulting from the subduction of seamounts offshore Costa Rica, a process that can open up structural and stratigraphical pathways for migrating CH₄. The release of large amounts of CH₄ into the adjacent water column was discovered at the outcropping lowermost sedimentary sequence of the hanging wall in the northwest corner of Jaco Scar, where concentrations reached up to 1,500 nmol L^?1. There CH₄-rich fluids seeping from the sedimentary sequence stimulate both growth and activity of a dense chemosynthetic community. Additional point sources supplying CH₄ at lower concentrations were identified in density layers above and below the main plume from light carbon isotope ratios. The injected CH₄ is most likely a mixture of microbial and thermogenic CH₄ as suggested by \( \delta^{13} {\text{C}}_{{{\text{CH}}_{4} }} \) values between ?50 and ?62 ‰ Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite. This CH₄ spreads along isopycnal surfaces throughout the whole area of the scar, and the concentrations decrease due to mixing with ocean water and microbial oxidation. The supply of CH₄ appears to be persistent as repeatedly high CH₄ concentrations were found within the scar over 6 years. The maximum CH₄ concentration and average excess CH₄ concentration at Jaco Scar indicate that CH₄ seepage from scars might be as significant as seepage from other tectonic structures in the marine realm. Hence, taking into account the global abundance of scars, such structures might constitute a substantial, hitherto unconsidered contribution to natural CH₄ sources at the seafloor.     

Postprocessing of simulated precipitation for impact research in West Africa. Part I: model output statistics for monthly data

Rainfall represents an important factor in agriculture and food security, particularly, in the low latitudes. Climatological and hydrological studies which attempt to diagnose the hydrological cycle, require high-quality precipitation data. In West Africa, like in many parts of the world, the density of observational data is low and climate models are needed in order to perform homogeneous and complete data sets. However, climate models tend to produce systematic errors, especially, in terms of rainfall and cloud processes, which are usually approximated by physical parameterizations. In this study, a 25-year climatology of monthly precipitation in West Africa is presented, derived from a regional climate model simulation, and evaluated with respect to observational data. It is found that the model systematically underestimates the rainfall amount and variability and does not capture some details of the seasonal cycle in sub-Saharan West Africa. Thus, in its present form the precipitation climatology is not appropriate to draw a realistic picture of the hydrological cycle in West Africa nor to serve as input data for impact research. Therefore, a statistical model is developed in order to adjust the simulated rainfall data to the characteristics of observed precipitation. Assuming that the regional climate model is much more reliable in terms of atmospheric circulation and thermodynamics, model output statistics is used to correct simulated rainfall by means of other simulated parameters of the near-surface climate like temperature, sea level pressure and wind components. Monthly data is adjusted by a cross-validated multiple regression model. The resulting adjusted rainfall climatology reveals a substantial improvement in terms of the model deficiencies mentioned above. In part II of this publication, the characteristics of simulated daily precipitation is adapted to station data by applying a weather generator. Once the postprocessing approach is trained, it can be extrapolated to simulation periods, for which observational data do not exist like for instance future climate.     

Postprocessing of simulated precipitation for impact research in West Africa. Part II: A weather generator for daily data

Data from global and regional climate models refer to grid cells and, hence, are basically different from station data. This particularly holds for variables with enhanced spatio-temporal variability like precipitation. On the other hand, many applications like for instance hydrological models require atmospheric data with the statistical characteristics of station data. Here, we present a dynamical-statistical tool to construct virtual station data based on regional climate model output for tropical West Africa. This weather generator (WEGE) incorporates daily gridded rainfall from the model, an orographic term and a stochastic term, accounting for the chaotic spatial distribution of local rain events within a model grid box. In addition, the simulated probability density function of daily precipitation is adjusted to available station data in Benin. It is also assured that the generated data are still consistent with other model parameters like cloudiness and atmospheric circulation. The resulting virtual station data are in excellent agreement with various observed characteristics which are not explicitly addressed by the WEGE algorithm. This holds for the mean daily rainfall intensity and variability, the relative number of rainless days and the scaling of precipitation in time. The data set has already been used successfully for various climate impact studies in Benin.     

Mediterranean climate extremes in synoptic downscaling assessments

The behaviour of precipitation and maximum temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area under climate change conditions is analysed in the present study. In this context, the ability of synoptic downscaling techniques in combination with extreme value statistics for dealing with extremes is investigated. Analyses are based upon a set of long-term station time series in the whole Mediterranean area. At first, a station-specific ensemble approach for model validation was developed which includes (1) the downscaling of daily precipitation and maximum temperature values from the large-scale atmospheric circulation via analogue method and (2) the fitting of extremes by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Model uncertainties are quantified as confidence intervals derived from the ensemble distributions of GPD-related return values and described by a new metric called “ratio of overlapping”. Model performance for extreme precipitation is highest in winter, whereas the best models for maximum temperature extremes are set up in autumn. Valid models are applied to a 30-year period at the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) by means of ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model data for IPCC SRES B1 scenario. The most distinctive future changes are observed in autumn in terms of a strong reduction of precipitation extremes in Northwest Iberia and the Northern Central Mediterranean area as well as a simultaneous distinct increase of maximum temperature extremes in Southwestern Iberia and the Central and Southeastern Mediterranean regions. These signals are checked for changes in the underlying dynamical processes using extreme-related circulation classifications. The most important finding connected to future changes of precipitation extremes in the Northwestern Mediterranean area is a reduction of southerly displaced deep North Atlantic cyclones in 2070–2099 as associated with a strengthened North Atlantic Oscillation. Thus, the here estimated future changes of extreme precipitation are in line with the discourse about the influence of North Atlantic circulation variability on the changing climate in Europe.     

High level and low level plagiogranites from the nicoya ophiolite complex,Costa Rica,Central America

Two suites of plagiogranitic rocks within the oceanic crust of the Jurassic-Cretaceous ophiolitic Nicoya complex are distinguished. High level plagiogranites (HLP) crop out at the top of the cumulate sequence in the northwestern part of the Nicoya peninsula. They are associated with iron-rich dolerites and noncumulus gabbros. Based on field relationships and geochemical characteristics (e.g. enrichment in REE and HFS elements) the origin of these rocks is explained in terms of a two stage model of fractional crystallization and filter pressing. The first stage comprises the formation of tholeiitic Fe-rich melt and a highly differentiated crystal-melt mush. The second stage is characterized by filter pressing of plagiogranitic interstitial magma. Fe-dolerites form the residual rocks. Crystal fractionation of this plagiogranitic magma is due to the formation of a rather complete series of siliceous rocks.The geochemically different low level plagiogranites (LLP) are restricted to the lowest part of the cumulate ophiolitic sequence of the Lower Nicoya complex. These rocks occur as small dikes or isolated veins within cumulus gabbros. There is some evidence of strong depletion in REE and HFS elements, high silica, and low total iron in these rocks.The samples analysed probably represent a further fractionation series of acid igneous rocks in the Lower Nicoya Complex. The geochemical features and especially the association of LLP with cumulus gabbros and amphibolites may be consistent with a genetic model of partial melting of the surrounding gabbros in the hornblende stability field during a secondary thermal event, which possibly represents the formation of an intraoceanic primitive island arc between the Caribbean and the Pacific in the Upper Cretaceous. Thus the LLP and the possibly residual amphibolites are not necessarily comagmatic with regard to the remaining oceanic igneous rocks of the Lower Nicoya Complex.

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Zusammenfassung Im Unteren Nicoya-Komplex, einer als jurassisch-kretazische Ozeankruste gedeuteten Ophiolith-Sequenz, treten in zwei Stockwerken intermediäre und saure Magmatite auf: Im obersten Bereich der kumulaten Sequenz kommen High Level-Plagiogranite (HLP) vor, die eng mit Fe-reichen Doleriten vergesellschaftet sind. Diese Vorkommen sind immer an Intrusionen von Gabbros gebunden. Low Level-Plagiogranite (LLP) treten an der Basis dieser Sequenz innerhalb kumulater Gabbros zusammen mit Amphiboliten auf, ohne jedoch mit Fe-Doleriten assoziiert sein.Die Genese dieser Gesteine wird an verschiedenen Modellen diskutiert, wobei die High Level-Plagiogranite auf Grund von Geländebefunden und geochemischen Merkmalen (z. B. hohe SE- und HFS-Elementkonzentrationen) durch ein zweistufiges Modell aus fraktionierter Kristallisationsdifferentiation und Filterpressung erklärt werden. Die erste Stufe beinhaltet die Entwicklung von differenzierten Fe-reichen Schmelzen in einem tholeiitischen Fraktionierungstrend. In einem späten Stadium bildet sich ein Gemisch aus Festphasen und intermediärer, plagiogranitischer Restschmelze. Die zweite Stufe beschreibt im Zusammenhang mit dem mechanischen Auspressen dieser Schmelzen in unterschiedlichen Differentiationsstadien die Entstehung separater Plagiogranitschmelzen und die Deutung der Fe-Dolerite als Residualgesteine. Durch weitere Fraktionierungsprozesse in der Plagiogranitschmelze entwickeln sich danach in einer kontinuierlichen Differentiationsreihe zunehmend saure Plagiogranite.Die Low Level-Plagiogranite weisen demgegenüber grundsätzlich verschiedene Haupt- und Spurenelementcharakteristiken auf. Sie tendieren zu höheren SiO₂- und geringeren Fe-Konzentrationen. Soweit aus den wenigen bisher vorliegenden Daten hervorgeht, sind sie verglichen mit den HLP deutlich an HFS-Elementen und Seltenen Erden verarmt. Die chemische Variabilität der LLP kennzeichnet wahrscheinlich eine weitere Fraktionierungsreihe saurer Magmatite im Unteren Nicoya-Komplex mit im Laufe der Differentiation steigenden HFS- und SEE-Konzentrationen. Wenig differenzierte LLP sind im Gegensatz zu der Differentiationsreihe der HLP nicht in den analysierten Proben repräsentiert, so da\ die Interpretation ihrer Genese teilweise spekulativ bleibt. Dennoch passen der Chemismus und insbesondere das geologische Umfeld zum genetischen Modell einer Bildung saurer plagiogranitischer Schmelzen durch einen sekundären, partiellen Aufschmelzungsproze\ der umgebenden Gabbros innerhalb des Hornblende-Stabilitätsfeldes im Zuge eines weiteren Wärmeereignisses, wobei Gabbros und Amphibolite als Edukte bzw. Residualgesteine interpretiert werden könnten.Ein mögliches sekundäres Wärmeereignis kann mit der Intrusion von basischen Schmelzen in den Unteren Nicoya-Komplex bei der Bildung eines primitiven, oberkretazischen Inselbogens zwischen Pazifik und Karibik verbunden sein. Bei einer solchen Genese würden die LLP und die restitischen Amphibolite im Gegensatz zu den HLP nicht notwendigerweise als komagmatisch und damit zeitgleich zu den übrigen Magmatiten des Unteren NicoyaKomplexes gelten.

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Resumen Dos series de plagiogranitos existen en el Complejo de Nicoya Inferior. Este complejo ofiolítico representa una litosfera oceánica de edad Jurásico hasta Cretácico Inferior. Plagiogranitos del nivel alto (high level plagiogranites, HLP) afloran en la parte superior de la secuencia acumulada en la peninsula de Nicoya. Están asociadas con doleritas ricas en hierro dentro de gabros intrusivos. Con respeto a la composición geoquímica y las relaciones con rocas básicas en el campo, el origen de los plagiogranitos está explicado por un modelo, que consiste de cristalización fraccionada y de filtración a presión.Plagiogranitos del nivel bajo (low level plagiogranites, LLP) aloran en la parte inferior de la secuencia acumulada en la peninsula de Santa Elena. La composición geoquímica y la asociación de estas rocas ácidas con gabros de textura acumulada y con anfibolitas coinciden con un modelo, que describe la formación de los LLP por una fusión parcial de las rocas básicas asociadas. Un evento termal, que posiblemente da lugar a una fusión parcial está representado por el origen del Complejo de Nicoya Superior, el cual se formó como arco insular primitivo en el límite intraoceánico de las placas del Caribe y del Pacífico.

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A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks

In order to be economically viable, flood disaster mitigation should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk. This requires the estimation of the flood hazard (i.e. runoff and associated probability) and the consequences of flooding (i.e. property damage, damage to persons, etc.). Within the “German Research Network Natural Disasters” project, the working group on “Flood Risk Analysis” investigated the complete flood disaster chain from the triggering event down to its various consequences. The working group developed complex, spatially distributed models representing the relevant meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic, geo-technical, and socio-economic processes. In order to assess flood risk these complex deterministic models were complemented by a simple probabilistic model. The latter model consists of modules each representing one process of the flood disaster chain. Each module is a simple parameterisation of the corresponding more complex model. This ensures that the two approaches (simple probabilistic and complex deterministic) are compatible at all steps of the flood disaster chain. The simple stochastic approach allows a large number of simulation runs in a Monte Carlo framework thus providing the basis for a probabilistic risk assessment. Using the proposed model, the flood risk including an estimation of the flood damage was quantified for an example area at the river Rhine. Additionally, the important influence of upstream levee breaches on the flood risk at the lower reaches was assessed. The proposed model concept is useful for the integrated assessment of flood risks in flood prone areas, for cost-benefit assessment and risk-based design of flood protection measures and as a decision support tool for flood management.     

远场地震引起地下水化学异常模拟

通过对亚美尼亚Kajaran的一口自流井流量数据和电导率数据的多年分析,我们发现这口井对远场大震的响应非常敏感。一般同震流量增加,震后大约滞后一小时传导率减小。传导率在震后大约三周时趋于最小,然后需要数月时间来恢复震前水平。例如,1999年8月17土耳其Izm itMW7.6级地震,相距1 400 km,引起流量增加25%,传导率减小6%。流量也可以显示潮汐的波动,这种波动的幅度(顶点到顶点)约为水井产生的平均波动的5%,但传导率数据的潮汐信号并不明显,且不稳定。监测期11次地震引起最大同震静态应变异常的估算均低于10-9,只有一次正常状态小于潮汐应变。所以,远震相关的井水异常是地震地面振动引起的,而非同震变形。我们提出混有地下水的模型来解释观察到的现象,此模型考虑了这个特殊的地下水系统的特殊状态:封闭的含水层含两类在水化组分上具有很大差异的地下水,地下水和微破裂的混合区域与自流井的液压相互关联。认为与地震相关的异常,是由自流井附近的局部水头增加产生的,而局部水头的增加是由于地震波的通过引起的。本文讨论了可能的机制,对异常的时间变化曲线进行了模拟。     

Regional modelling of future African climate north of 15°S including greenhouse warming and land degradation

Previous studies have highlighted the crucial role of land degradation in tropical African climate. This effect urgently has to be taken into account when predicting future African climate under enhanced greenhouse conditions. Here, we present time slice experiments of African climate until 2025, using a high-resolution regional climate model. A supposable scenario of future land use changes, involving vegetation loss and soil degradation, is prescribed simultaneously with increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in order to detect, where the different forcings counterbalance or reinforce each other. This proceeding allows us to define the regions of highest vulnerability with respect to future freshwater availability and food security in tropical and subtropical Africa and may provide a decision basis for political measures. The model simulates a considerable reduction in precipitation amount until 2025 over most of tropical Africa, amounting to partly more than 500 mm (20–40% of the annual sum), particularly in the Congo Basin and the Sahel Zone. The change is strongest in boreal summer and basically reflects the pattern of maximum vegetation cover during the seasonal cycle. The related change in the surface energy fluxes induces a substantial near-surface warming by up to 7°C. According to the modified temperature gradients over tropical Africa, the summer monsoon circulation intensifies and transports more humid air masses into the southern part of West Africa. This humidifying effect is overcompensated by a remarkable decrease in surface evaporation, leading to the overall drying tendency over most of Africa. Extreme daily rainfall events become stronger in autumn but less intense in spring. Summer and autumn appear to be characterized by more severe heat waves over Subsaharan West Africa. In addition, the Tropical Easterly Jet is weakening, leading to enhanced drought conditions in the Sahel Zone. All these results suggest that the local impact of land degradation and reduction of vegetation cover may be more important in tropical Africa than the global radiative heating, at least until 2025. This implies that vegetation protection measures at a national scale may directly lead to a mitigation of the expected negative implications of future climate change in tropical Africa.     

Back-analysis for initial ground stress field at a diamond mine using machine learning approaches

Exact knowledge for ground stress field guarantees the construction of various underground engineering projects as well as prediction of some geological hazards such as the rock burst. Limited by costs, field measurement for initial ground stresses can be only conducted on several measure points, which necessitates back-analysis for initial stresses from limited field measurement data. This paper employed a multioutput decision tree regressor (DTR) to model the relationship between initial ground stress field and its impact factor. A full-scale finite element model was built and computed to gain 400 training samples for DTR using a submodeling strategy. The results showed that correlation coefficient r between field measurement values and back-analysis values reached 0.92, which proved the success of DTR. A neural network was employed to store the global initial ground stress field. More than 600,000 node data extracted from the full-scale finite element model were used to train this neural network. After training, the stresses on any location can be investigated by inputting corresponding coordinates into this neural network.

     

Miocene to Quaternary basin evolution at the southeastern Andean Plateau (Puna) margin (ca. 24°S lat,Northwestern Argentina)

The Andean Plateau of NW Argentina is a prominent example of a high‐elevation orogenic plateau characterized by internal drainage, arid to hyper‐arid climatic conditions and a compressional basin‐and‐range morphology comprising thick sedimentary basins. However, the development of the plateau as a geomorphic entity is not well understood. Enhanced orographic rainout along the eastern, windward plateau flank causes reduced fluvial run‐off and thus subdued surface‐process rates in the arid hinterland. Despite this, many Puna basins document a complex history of fluvial processes that have transformed the landscape from aggrading basins with coalescing alluvial fans to the formation of multiple fluvial terraces that are now abandoned. Here, we present data from the San Antonio de los Cobres (SAC) area, a sub‐catchment of the Salinas Grandes Basin located on the eastern Puna Plateau bordering the externally drained Eastern Cordillera. Our data include: (a) new radiometric U‐Pb zircon data from intercalated volcanic ash layers and detrital zircons from sedimentary key horizons; (b) sedimentary and geochemical provenance indicators; (c) river profile analysis; and (d) palaeo‐landscape reconstruction to assess aggradation, incision and basin connectivity. Our results suggest that the eastern Puna margin evolved from a structurally controlled intermontane basin during the Middle Miocene, similar to intermontane basins in the Mio‐Pliocene Eastern Cordillera and the broken Andean foreland. Our refined basin stratigraphy implies that sedimentation continued during the Late Mio‐Pliocene and the Quaternary, after which the SAC area was subjected to basin incision and excavation of the sedimentary fill. Because this incision is unrelated to baselevel changes and tectonic processes, and is similar in timing to the onset of basin fill and excavation cycles of intermontane basins in the adjacent Eastern Cordillera, we suspect a regional climatic driver, triggered by the Mid‐Pleistocene Climate Transition, caused the present‐day morphology. Our observations suggest that lateral orogenic growth, aridification of orogenic interiors, and protracted plateau sedimentation are all part of a complex process chain necessary to establish and maintain geomorphic characteristics of orogenic plateaus in tectonically active mountain belts.