永清MS 4.3地震前永清井水温异常分析

2017年12月永清井观测温度急剧下降,采用该井水温、水位多年观测数据,从仪器测量原理及精细温度梯度测量出发,结合井孔资料,认为该变化为永清M_S 4.3地震（井震距<30 km）发生前的异常信息。利用正弦累加模型计算温度异常持续时间和幅度,发现该异常变化存在2个周期：①周期42天,温度变化幅度为0.042 12℃;②周期16.77天,温度变化幅度为0.018 62℃。分析认为,区域应力状态发生变化,使含水层渗透性受到影响,从而间接影响到井下温度传感器安放处水温。地震发生后近距离观测到水温异常变化尚属首次,利用模型对变化时间与幅度进行量化提取,可为经验预报、统计预报提供经典震例。     

面向地震应急的山区人口百米格网分布——以麟游县为例

破坏性地震发生后,山区易发生滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害。精细化人口空间分布数据能够有效提升灾情评判精度,为应急救援决策提供参考依据。本文以陕西省麟游县为例,利用"天地图"高分辨率遥感影像解译大比例尺居民地数据,结合人口、行政区划等数据,利用GIS（地理信息系统）技术制作100 m×100 m格网人口分布数据。通过与陕西省地震局现有人口空间数据进行对比,发现百米格网人口分布数据可明显提升山区次生灾害影响人口计算结果的可靠性。     

Allocating river water in a cooperative way: a case study of the Dongjiang River Basin,South China

Water resources provide the foundation for human development and environmental sustainability. Water shortage occurs more or less in some regions, which usually causes sluggish economic activities, degraded ecology, and even conflicts and disputes over water use sectors. Game theory can better reflect the behaviors of involved stakeholders and has been increasingly employed in water resources management. This paper presents a framework for the allocation of river basin water in a cooperative way. The proposed framework applies the TOPSIS model combined with the entropy weight to determine stakeholders’ initial water share, reallocating water and net benefit by using four solution concepts for crisp and fuzzy games. Finally, the Fallback bargaining model was employed to achieve unanimous agreement over the four solution concepts. The framework was demonstrated with an application to the Dongjiang River Basin, South China. The results showed that, overall, the whole basin gained more total benefits when the players participated in fuzzy coalitions rather than in crisp coalitions, and \(\left\{ {NHS_{Fuzzy} \,and\, SV_{Crisp} } \right\}\) could better distribute the total benefit of the whole basin to each player. This study tested the effectiveness of this framework for the water allocation decision-making in the context of water management in river basins. The results provide technical support for water right trade among the stakeholders at basin scale and have the potential to relieve water use conflicts of the entire basin.     

An environmental indicator: particulate characteristics on pedestrian pathway along integrated urban thoroughfare in Metropolis

Particulate matter (PM) originated by road transport constitutes an urgent task for megacities and pedestrians are supposed to be the first batch of innocent victims that exposed to and inhaled the polluted air. Footbridges have become a promising resolution to land tension, the location and design of them should be more considered in order to provide a more desirable walking system to pedestrians. In this study, three groups of PM [i.e., 0.3–0.9 μm (sub-fine), 0.9–2.5 μm (fine) and 2.5–10 μm (coarse)] were measured at different traffic scenario related footbridges (i.e., upstream of the on-ramp, downstream of the on-ramp, and signalized intersection) along an urban artery in Hong Kong, and their traffic volume composition, multifractality and cross-correlation behavior were investigated thereafter. Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis and multifractal detrended fluctuation cross-correlation analysis were used simultaneously to quantify the persistency of different PM groups and interaction between them. The results indicate that although the particle concentration at intersection above footbridges presents the lowest, it has the highest emission rate and the strongest multifractality and cross-correlation behavior, especially the finer ones. Hence, it is suggest that the nature ventilation style of footbridges should avoid to be built above the signalized intersection due to the long persistency of particles and active interaction between different particle groups.     

Bayesian maximum entropy approach and its applications: a review

The present paper reviews the conceptual framework and development of the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) approach. BME has been considered as a significant breakthrough and contribution to applied stochastics by introducing an improved, knowledge-based modeling framework for spatial and spatiotemporal information. In this work, one objective is the overview of distinct BME features. By offering a foundation free of restrictive assumptions that limit comparable techniques, an ability to integrate a variety of prior knowledge bases, and rigorous accounting for both exact and uncertain data, the BME approach was coined as introducing modern spatiotemporal geostatistics. A second objective is to illustrate BME applications and adoption within numerous different scientific disciplines. We summarize examples and real-world studies that encompass the perspective of science of the total environment, including atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and ecosphere, while also noting applications that extend beyond these fields. The broad-ranging application track suggests BME as an established, valuable tool for predictive spatial and space–time analysis and mapping. This review concludes with the present status of BME, and tentative paths for future methodological research, enhancements, and extensions.     

Organochlorine pesticides in soil and air at and around a compound contaminated site: vertical distribution,soil–air exchange and risk evaluation

The control of soil pollution in China has become an issue, and in this study, a compound contaminated site was selected and focus on the site and its nearby environment, organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were investigated in both soil (top and deep soil) and air samples. The main pollutants in top soils at site are dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDTs, 0.05–104 mg/kg d.w., avg: 14.5 mg/kg d.w.) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB, 0.02–4.85 mg/kg d.w., avg: 0.72 mg/kg d.w.) which is in accordance with its production history. As for the deep soils, ΣOCPs at site were found concentrated at workshops especially the technical pesticide workshop (5.29–22.1 mg/kg d.w., avg: 9.15 mg/kg d.w.) and the history DDTs’ workshop (4.00–64.8 mg/kg d.w., avg: 20.4 mg/kg d.w). Around site, OCPs were mainly concentrated at layers of −20 cm and the −40 cm and decreased with distance being far away, at 5000 m, the ΣOCPs was comparable with normal agriculture soil (22.1−91.4 ng/g d.w., avg: 55.4 ng/g d.w.). ΣOCPs in the air samples ranged 64.6–823 ng/m³ (avg: 459 ng/m³) at site and 9.93–176 ng/m³ (avg: 50.8 ng/m³) around site which are all dominated with DDTs and HCHs. Soil–air exchange fugacity was calculated to judge the transportation of the OCPs and the results showed soils at the site and its nearby areas (within 5000 m) are releasing most of the OCPs into air, and accordingly through evaluation, inhalation was found to be the major source for human health risk, which is a great threat to the workers at site and the nearby residents.

     

Modeling lateral circulation and its influence on the along-channel flow in a branched estuary

A numerical modeling study of the influence of the lateral flow on the estuarine exchange flow was conducted in the north passage of the Changjiang estuary. The lateral flows show substantial variabilities within a flood-ebb tidal cycle. The strong lateral flow occurring during flood tide is caused primarily by the unique cross-shoal flow that induces a strong northward (looking upstream) barotropic force near the surface and advects saltier water toward the northern part of the channel, resulting in a southward baroclinic force caused by the lateral density gradient. Thus, a two-layer structure of lateral flows is produced during the flood tide. The lateral flows are vigorous near the flood slack and the magnitude can exceed that of the along-channel tidal flow during that period. The strong vertical shear of the lateral flows and the salinity gradient in lateral direction generate lateral tidal straining, which are out of phase with the along-channel tidal straining. Consequently, stratification is enhanced at the early stage of the ebb tide. In contrast, strong along-channel straining is apparent during the late ebb tide. The vertical mixing disrupts the vertical density gradient, thus suppressing stratification. The impact of lateral straining on stratification during spring tide is more pronounced than that of along-channel straining during late flood and early ebb tides. The momentum balance along the estuary suggests that lateral flow can augment the residual exchange flow. The advection of lateral flows brings low-energy water from the shoal to the deep channel during the flood tide, whereas the energetic water is moved to the shoal via lateral advection during the ebb tide. The impact of lateral flow on estuarine circulation of this multiple-channel estuary is different from single-channel estuary. A model simulation by blocking the cross-shoal flow shows that the magnitudes of lateral flows and tidal straining are reduced. Moreover, the reduced lateral tidal straining results in a decrease in vertical stratification from the late flood to early ebb tides during the spring tide. By contrast, the along-channel tidal straining becomes dominant. The model results illustrate the important dynamic linkage between lateral flows and estuarine dynamics in the Changjiang estuary.     

Acoustic reflection well logging modeling using the frequency-domain finite-element method with a hybrid PML

In this paper, we propose a hybrid PML (H-PML) combining the normal absorption factor of convolutional PML (C-PML) with tangential absorption factor of Mutiaxial PML (M-PML). The H-PML boundary conditions can better suppress the numerical instability in some extreme models. and the computational speed of finite-element method and the dynamic range are greatly increased using this HPML. We use the finiteelement method with a hybrid PML to model the acoustic reflection of the interface when wireline and well logging while drilling (LWD), in a formation with a reflector outside the borehole. The simulation results suggests that the PS- and SP- reflected waves arrive at the same time when the inclination between the well and the outer interface is zero, and the difference in arrival times increases with increasing dip angle. When there are fractures outside the well, the reflection signal is clearer in the subsequent reflection waves and may be used to identify the fractured zone. The difference between the dominant wavelength and the model scale shows that LWD reflection logging data are of higher resolution and quality than wireline acoustic reflection logging.     

Sedimentary and geochemical evidence of Eocene climate change in the Xining Basin,northeastern Tibetan Plateau

The northeastern Tibetan Plateau began to grow during the Eocene and it is important to understand the climatic history of Asia during this period of so-called ‘doubthouse' conditions. However, despite major advances in the last few decades,the evolutionary history and possible mechanisms of Eocene climate change in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau remain unclear.The Xining Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau contains a continuous sequence of Early to Late Eocene non-marine sediments which provides the opportunity to resolve long-term climate changes during this period. In this study, we report the results of analyses of lithofacies, sediment color and geochemistry of bulk samples collected from the Xijigou section of the Xining Basin. An abrupt lithofacies change between the Early(~52–40 Ma) and Late Eocene(~40–34 Ma) indicates a change in the depositional environment from a shallow lake to a playa lake in response to a significant climatic shift. During ~52–40 Ma,higher values of sediment redness(a*), redness/lightness(a*/L*) and higher modified Chemical Index of Weathering(CIW′)indicate a relatively warm and humid climate, while from ~40–34 Ma the lower values of a*, a*/L*and lower CIW′ imply subhumid to semi-arid climatic conditions. The paleoclimatic records indicate a long-term(~52–34 Ma) trend of decreasing chemical weathering, consistent with global climate change. An abrupt sharp excursion of the proxy records during ~42–40 Ma suggests a relatively brief warm interval, corresponding to the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum(MECO). We suggest that global cooling substantially reduced humidity in inner Asia, resulting in sub-humid to semi-arid climatic conditions after 40 Ma in the Xining Basin, which may have been responsible for the long-term trend of decreasing chemical weathering during the Eocene.     

青藏高原东南三江流域黄土类堆积体斜坡地震作用下的动力响应试验研究——以四川巴塘下归洼滑坡为例

青藏高原东南三江流域广泛存在堆积体斜坡,该类斜坡极易演化为滑坡灾害。以四川巴塘下归洼斜坡为例,通过振动台模型试验研究地震诱发的堆积体滑坡动力响应特征与破坏模式。试验结果表明,在地震作用初期,由于孔隙被挤密,斜坡的自振频率增大;在茂县波激励下,斜坡肩部动力响应最强烈。高幅值茂县波激励下,因斜坡整体刚度降低,放大效应减弱。Hibert谱描述了地震波在斜坡中的传播特征,向斜坡顶部传播时,地震波高频能量显著增强,地震波经过堆积层后,放大效应减弱。在足以致使堆积层滑动的强震作用下,坡表一定深度下动力响应呈现一致剧烈现象,斜坡上部会形成“脱离体”,“脱离体”在地震作用下上下颠簸运动;在临滑时,坡表出现最强烈的动力响应。斜坡的破坏模式为：地震初期,在重力和地震耦合作用下,坡表土体剥落;随地震幅值增加,坡肩与堆积层发生明显相对位移,堆积层表面出现裂缝;最终,坡脚发生明显相对位移,随后堆积层偏离基岩加速滑塌。基于地震信号特征的斜坡堆积层滑落过程可分为三阶段：(1)稳定阶段;(2)临滑阶段;(3)滑移阶段。