杭州西湖总磷动态变化预测

建立了西湖污染物分析和浓度变化的水质对流扩散模型,并利用该模型对西湖水体引水后７ｄ内总磷浓度的变化进行了预测,然后对预测结果作了较为详细的分析。     

Whether human-induced activities could change the gradient pattern of coastal land use along the sea-land direction: a case study in Manila Bay,Philippines

Increasing intense human activities have largely changed the coastal landscape and caused many environmental issues. However, whether human-induced activities could change the coastal land use gradient pattern, an important coastal zonal characteristic along the sea–land direction, remains unclear. Manila Bay was selected as the study area in this work. According to the distance of the land use and land cover(LULC) to the coastline, we clustered the typical coastal land use sequence patterns(CLU...     

论中国半精养水库渔业及其饲料问题

中国水库放养鱼的种类、食性以及可利用的天然饵料生物决定了半精养渔业是水库渔业的主要模式。水库半精养有中、小型水库、水库库汊、网拦、网围、网箱养鱼等多种形式。其产量与肥料、饲料的投入有直接关系。最大限度地利用天然饵料,并辅以补充性人工饲料,可实现高产高效。本文以水库鱼类的营养和饲料利用为基础,论述半精养水库渔业的理论和实用技术,并提出尚须研究的问题,以推进半精养水库渔业的发展。     

2021年、2022年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评

基于2021年、2022年中国5.0级及以上地震目录,结合应急管理部、有关省(自治区、直辖市)地震局的地震灾害评估报告和相关资料,对中国大陆地震灾害情况、主要地震灾害事件及其特点进行了总结和分析。此外,按省份总结了各省地震灾害事件及地震灾害特点。其中,云南省中强震多、强震少,震区房屋抗震能力较高,人员伤亡较小; 四川省中强震少、强震多,次生灾害较为发育,造成严重人员伤亡; 青海省虽然震级高、破坏性强、致灾范围广,但震区地广人稀,房屋抗震设防等级较高,人员伤亡少。最后,结合历史震害统计数据,分析对比近2年中国大陆地震灾害致灾特点。     

洞庭湖区域黑线姬鼠（Apodemus agrarius）种群迁入湖滩后的繁殖特征

黑线姬鼠(Apodemus agrarius)是广泛分布于我国的主要农田害鼠之一,2003年三峡工程开始蓄水后洞庭湖湖滩鼠类群落结构发生了演变,黑线姬鼠已大量侵入湖滩,且逐步成为湖滩生境鼠类群落的优势鼠种。动物在新生境中的繁殖状况是了解其对环境适应的关键指标。为掌握黑线姬鼠种群侵入湖滩生境后的适应情况,为其种群动态的预测预报提供科学依据,本文对2003—2020年洞庭湖湖滩和农田生境中捕获的黑线姬鼠繁殖状况进行比较分析,并结合季节动态和生境差异等因子分析了该鼠在繁殖方面对湖滩生境的适应。结果表明:(1)湖滩生境中黑线姬鼠平均繁殖指数(0.71±0.27)低于农田生境(1.21±0.47),在2016—2020年湖滩上黑线姬鼠的繁殖指数为0.99,略高于农田的0.96;(2)湖滩生境较农田生境中的孕鼠在繁殖中偏向有更多的胎仔数,有6只以上胎仔数的孕鼠占比(65.59%)高于农田生境(49.10%);(3)湖滩生境中发现有幼年组的黑线姬鼠参与繁殖,其繁殖指数、参产率、怀孕率及雄鼠的睾丸下降率随年龄递增;(4)春季和秋季是湖滩生境中黑线姬鼠的主要繁殖季节,其繁殖指数、参产率、怀孕率都显著高于...     

回填土不确定性对场地地震反应的影响

选取某核电场地控制性钻孔的厚度、剪切波速、密度等实际勘探数据,通过改变回填土剪切波速,分析了回填土不确定性对场地地震动参数的影响。研究结果表明:在回填土层厚度不变和模型总厚度不变的情况下,地表的水平向峰值加速度随着回填土剪切波速的增大而减小,但水平向峰值加速度增幅逐渐减小;回填土剪切波速到达一定的波速就不再影响地表水平峰值加速度;随着回填土剪切波速的增加,整个反应谱的谱值都普遍减小。     

仪器标定格值变化对钻孔应变观测数据的影响

以巴南地震台钻孔应变某一时段观测资料异常变化为例,指出观测仪器元件标定格值是影响钻孔应变观测数据的重要参数,与固体潮汐幅度成反比例关系,且格值变化也可能是改变钻孔应变趋势形态的一种因素。文中分析格值与应变观测数据之间的物理机制,校正恢复异常时段观测曲线,为钻孔应变异常干扰识别工作提供参考。     

Comparison of parameter uncertainty analysis techniques for a TOPMODEL application

Parameter uncertainty in hydrologic modeling is crucial to the flood simulation and forecasting. The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate parameters according to prior expert knowledge as well as observational data about model parameter values. This study assesses the performance of two popular uncertainty analysis (UA) techniques, i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian method implemented with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, in evaluating model parameter uncertainty in flood simulations. These two methods were applied to the semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that includes five parameters. A case study was carried out for a small humid catchment in the southeastern China. The performance assessment of the GLUE and Bayesian methods were conducted with advanced tools suited for probabilistic simulations of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to test several attributes of the simulation quality of selected flood events: deterministic accuracy and the accuracy of 95 % prediction probability uncertainty band (95PPU). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify sensitive parameters that largely affect the model output results. Subsequently, the GLUE and Bayesian methods were used to analyze the uncertainty of sensitive parameters and further to produce their posterior distributions. Based on their posterior parameter samples, TOPMODEL’s simulations and the corresponding UA results were conducted. Results show that the form of exponential decline in conductivity and the overland flow routing velocity were sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL in our case. Small changes in these two parameters would lead to large differences in flood simulation results. Results also suggest that, for both UA techniques, most of streamflow observations were bracketed by 95PPU with the containing ratio value larger than 80 %. In comparison, GLUE gave narrower prediction uncertainty bands than the Bayesian method. It was found that the mode estimates of parameter posterior distributions are suitable to result in better performance of deterministic outputs than the 50 % percentiles for both the GLUE and Bayesian analyses. In addition, the simulation results calibrated with Rosenbrock optimization algorithm show a better agreement with the observations than the UA’s 50 % percentiles but slightly worse than the hydrographs from the mode estimates. The results clearly emphasize the importance of using model uncertainty diagnostic approaches in flood simulations.     

CAP1400核岛结构缩尺模型对地震反应影响分析

针对核电厂CAP1400核岛结构地震反应问题,构建了核岛屏蔽厂房和辅助厂房整体结构的3个分析模型:原型和1/16、1/40缩尺模型,并在AP000谱和RG1.60谱地震动输入下进行了有限元模拟对比分析,探讨了振动台试验模型缩尺处理的合理性和精确性。研究表明,基于缩尺模型得到的结构自振频率相对于原型结构模型有所降低,降低幅度在8.5%以内;结构模型的缩尺对结构反应峰值加速度和高频（大于3Hz）加速度反应谱的影响较为显著,但对较低频（小于3Hz）的加速度反应谱影响较小;模型缩尺对结构不同方向反应的影响中,刚度越大的方向其影响越大。进一步将结构模型数值模拟结果与1/16缩尺模型的振动台试验结果进行了比较分析,试验给出的结构自振频率远低于模型数值模拟结果,但原型和1/16缩尺模型数值模拟得到的结构反应均与试验结果较为接近。基于模型数值模拟和振动台试验研究,认为对于缩尺比1/16或更大的模型可以忽略模型的缩尺效应。     

城市浅层地震勘探过障碍变观设计

在城市浅层地震勘探数据采集中,地震测线经常会遇到河流、桥、交叉路口等地表障碍。为了尽量减小地表障碍造成的影响,需要对观测系统作变观设计。作者分析总结了城市浅层地震勘探中常见障碍以及过障碍变观模式,并开发了浅层地震过障碍变观设计软件,利用此软件可在采集现场快捷地进行过障碍变观。将这种方法应用于实际工作中,有效减小了资料缺失造成的影响,提高了资料的信噪比。该软件能够根据实际工作环境和设备条件在野外现场对观测系统进行灵活变观,设计出合理的过障碍观测系统,有效地提高了变观设计的效率。