Trace elements in rims and interiors of Chainpur chondrules

Trace elements were measured in the rims and interiors of nine chondrules separated from the Chainpur LL-3 chondrite. Whole rock samples of Chainpur and samples of separated rims were also measured. Chondrule rims are moderately enriched in siderophile and volatile elements relative to the chondrule interiors. The enriched volatile elements include the lithophilic volatile element Zn. The moderate enrichment of volatiles in chondrule rims and the lack of severe depletion in chondrules can account for the complete volatile inventory in Chainpur. These results support a three-component model of chondrite formation in which metal plus sulfide, chondrules plus rims and matrix silicates are mixed to form chondrites.     

Solar-hydrogen electricity generation in the context of global CO2 emission reduction

The relative costs and CO₂ emission reduction benefits of advanced centralized fossil fuel electricity generation, hybrid photovoltaic-fossil fuel electricity generation, and total solar electricity generation with hydrogen storage are compared. Component costs appropriate to the year 2000–2010 time frame are assumed throughout. For low insolation conditions (160 W m^–2 mean annual solar radiation), photovoltaic electricity could cost 5–13 cents/kWh by year 2000–2010, while for high insolation conditions (260 W m^–2) the cost could be 4–9 cents/kWh. Advanced fossil fuel-based power generation should achieve efficiencies of 50% using coal and 55% using natural gas. Carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced by a factor of 2 to 3 compared to conventional coal-based electricity production in industrialized countries. In a solar-fossil fuel hybrid, some electricity would be supplied from solar energy whenever the sun is shining and remaining demand satisfied by fossil fuels. This increases total capital costs but saves on fuel costs. For low insolation conditions, the costs of electricity increases by 0–2 cents/kWh, while the cost of electricity decreases in many cases for high insolation conditions. Solar energy would provide 20% or 30% of electricity demand for the low and high insolation cases, respectively. In the solar-hydrogen energy system, some photovoltaic arrays would provide current electricity demand while others would be used to produce hydrogen electrolytically for storage and later use in fuel cells to generate electricity. Electricity costs from the solar-hydrogen system are 0.2–5.4 cents/kWh greater than from a natural gas power plant, and 1.0–4.5 cents/kWh greater than from coal plant for the cost and performance assumptions adopted here. The carbon tax required to make the solar-hydrogen system competitive with fossil fuels ranges from $70–660/tonne, depending on the cost and performance of system components and the future price of fossil fuels.Leakage of hydrogen from storage into the atmosphere, and the eventual transport of a portion of the leaked hydrogen to the stratosphere, would result in the formation of stratospheric water vapor. This could perturb stratospheric ozone amounts and contribute to global warming. Order-of-magnitude calculations indicate that, for a leakage rate of 0.5% yr^–1 of total hydrogen production -which might be characteristic of underground hydrogen storage - the global warming effect of solarhydrogen electricity generation is comparable to that of a natural gas-solar energy hybrid system after one year of emission, but is on the order of 1% the impact of the hybrid system at a 100 year time scale. Impacts on stratospheric ozone are likely to be minuscule.     

Creating a global warming implementation regime

This paper proposes a global warming implementation regime which addresses the issues of equity, flexibility, cost minimization, and population growth. Previously proposed international policy instruments, such as country by country targets, carbon taxes, and tradable permits, face major difficulties as stand alone proposals. The key element of the regime proposed here is to combine annual tradable permits which are allocated based on population in a fixed year with a small carbon tax ($5–10/tonne) on emissions in excess of permits. Both permits and carbon taxes are applied to national level governments, which in turn would use whatever mix of policies desired to reduce national emissions. It is suggested that the initial number of permits correspond to total global emissions in the base year; over time, the number of permits could be reduced and the tax rate increased if improved scientific knowledge so dictates. By allocating permits based on population the equity concerns of developing countries are addressed, while taxing emissions in excess of permit holdings removes the rigidity of a quota system and limits resource transfers by effectively capping the permit trading price, which is a major concern of industrialized countries. To accommodate the difficulties of countries which have not yet achieved the demographic transition, the permit allocation scheme could be subject to a one-time adjustment after 10–15 years based on some weighting of the initial and then-current populations. The proposed scheme is based on the premise that there is a large potential for reducing emissions in developed countries or limiting emission increases in developing countries, and the intention is to create competition between national level governments in implementing cost-effective emission reduction.     

A comparison of solute-transport solution techniques and their effect on sensitivity analysis and inverse modeling results

Five common numerical techniques for solving the advection-dispersion equation (finite difference, predictor corrector, total variation diminishing, method of characteristics, and modified method of characteristics) were tested using simulations of a controlled conservative tracer-test experiment through a heterogeneous, two-dimensional sand tank. The experimental facility was constructed using discrete, randomly distributed, homogeneous blocks of five sand types. This experimental model provides an opportunity to compare the solution techniques: the heterogeneous hydraulic-conductivity distribution of known structure can be accurately represented by a numerical model, and detailed measurements can be compared with simulated concentrations and total flow through the tank. The present work uses this opportunity to investigate how three common types of results--simulated breakthrough curves, sensitivity analysis, and calibrated parameter values--change in this heterogeneous situation given the different methods of simulating solute transport. The breakthrough curves show that simulated peak concentrations, even at very fine grid spacings, varied between the techniques because of different amounts of numerical dispersion. Sensitivity-analysis results revealed: (1) a high correlation between hydraulic conductivity and porosity given the concentration and flow observations used, so that both could not be estimated; and (2) that the breakthrough curve data did not provide enough information to estimate individual values of dispersivity for the five sands. This study demonstrates that the choice of assigned dispersivity and the amount of numerical dispersion present in the solution technique influence estimated hydraulic conductivity values to a surprising degree.     

Hillslope gullying in the Solway Firth — Morecambe Bay region, Great Britain: Responses to human impact and/or climatic deterioration?

In the Solway Firth — Morecambe Bay region of Great Britain there is evidence for heightened hillslope instability during the late Holocene (after 3000 cal. BP). Little or no hillslope geomorphic activity has been identified occurring during the early Holocene, but there is abundant evidence for late Holocene hillslope erosion (gullying) and associated alluvial fan and valley floor deposition. Interpretation of the regional radiocarbon chronology available from organic matter buried beneath alluvial fan units suggests much of this geomorphic activity can be attributed to four phases of more extensive gullying identified after 2500–2200, 1300–1000, 1000–800 and 500 cal. BP. Both climate and human impact models can be evoked to explain the crossing of geomorphic thresholds: and palaeoecological data on climatic change (bog surface wetness) and human impact (pollen), together with archaeological and documentary evidence of landscape history, provide a context for addressing the causes of late Holocene geomorphic instability. High magnitude storm events are the primary agent responsible for gully incision, but neither such events nor cooler/wetter climatic episodes appear to have produced gully systems in the region before 3000 cal. BP. Increased gullying after 2500–2200 cal. BP coincides with population expansion during Iron Age and Romano-British times. The widespread and extensive gullying after 1300–1000 cal. BP and after 1000–800 cal. BP coincides with periods of population expansion and a growing rural economy identified during Norse times, 9–10th centuries AD, and during the Medieval Period, 12–13th centuries AD. These periods were separated by a downturn associated with the ‘harrying of the north’ AD 1069 to 1070. The gullying episode after 500 cal. BP also coincides with increased anthropogenic pressure on the uplands, with population growth and agricultural expansion after AD 1500 following 150 years of malaise caused by livestock and human (the Black Death) plagues, poor harvests and conflicts on the Scottish/English border. The increased susceptibility to erosion of gullies is a response to increased anthropogenic pressure on upland hillslopes during the late Holocene, and the role of this pressure appears crucial in priming hillslopes before subsequent major storm events. In particular, the cycles of expansion and contraction in both population and agriculture appear to have affected the susceptibility of the upland landscape to erosion, and the hillslope gullying record in the region, therefore, contributes to understanding of the timing and spatial pattern of human exploitation of the upland landscape.