Scaling Issues in Forest Succession Modelling

This paper reviews scaling issues in forest succession modelling, focusing on forest gap models. Two modes of scaling are distinguished: (1) implicit scaling, i.e. taking scale-dependent features into account while developing model equations, and (2) explicit scaling, i.e. using procedures that typically involve numerical simulation to scale up the response of a local model in space and/or time. Special attention is paid to spatial upscaling methods, and downscaling is covered with respect to deriving scenarios of climatic change to drive gap models in impact assessments. When examining the equations used to represent ecological processes in forest gap models, it becomes evident that implicit scaling is relevant, but has not always been fully taken into consideration. A categorization from the literature is used to distinguish four methods for explicit upscaling of ecological models in space: (1) Lumping, (2) Direct extrapolation, (3) Extrapolation by expected value, and (4) Explicit integration. Examples from gap model studies are used to elaborate the potential and limitations of these methods, showing that upscaling to areas as large as 3000 km² is possible, given that there are no significant disturbances such as fires or insect outbreaks at the landscape scale. Regarding temporal upscaling, we find that it is important to consider migrational lags, i.e. limited availability of propagules, if one wants to assess the transient behaviour of forests in a changing climate, specifically with respect to carbon storage and the associated feedbacks to the atmospheric CO₂ content. Regarding downscaling, the ecological effects of different climate scenarios for the year 2100 were compared at a range of sites in central Europe. The derivation of the scenarios is based on (1) imposing GCM grid-cell average changes of temperature and precipitation on the local weather records; (2) a qualitative downscaling technique applied by the IPCC for central and southern Europe; and (3) statistical downscaling relating large-scale circulation patterns to local weather records. Widely different forest compositions may be obtained depending on the local climate scenario, suggesting that the downscaling issue is quite important for assessments of the ecological impacts of climatic change on forests.     

Structural states of Mg-cordierite I: Order parameters from synchrotron X-ray and NMR data

The hexagonal to orthorhombic phase transition in synthetic Mg-cordierite has been studied by (i) measuring the spontaneous strain associated with the transition using Synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction and (ii) measuring the degree of Al, Si order in terms of the number of Al-O-Al bonds per formula unit using solid state NMR spectroscopy. This defines the two order parametersQ andQ _od respectively, and their relationship as a function of annealing temperature and time is used to define the structural states of cordierite during the ordering sequence. The formation of modulated hexagonal cordierite within which a high degree of Al, Si order can be attained, results in a strongly non-linear relationship betweenQ andQ _od .The transition from modulated to orthorhombic cordierite is strongly first-order under all temperature conditions studied and involves a large step inQ, whileQ _od changes continuously throughout the ordering sequence with no marked discontinuity at the phase transition. The lattice distortion, traditionally defined in cordierite by the Δ index provides no full information on the degree of Al, Si order in anhydrous Mg-cordierite, and both order parameters must be used to define its structural state. Transmission electron microscopy has been used to study the mechanism of the transformation from hexagonal to modulated to orthorhombic cordierite.     

Synoptic survey on dissolved trace metal levels in Baltic surface waters

A total of 95 surface water samples (6 m depth) was collected during a transect from the Bothnian Bay to Kiel between 28 August and 5 September 1982. This report presents the dissolved trace metal (<0.4 μm) and the associated hydrographic and nutrient data. Except for aluminium, all other metals determined (Zn, Cd, Cu, Ni, Fe, Mn) showed a rather homogeneous distribution within the subregions, with highest values in the Bothnian Bay (except for Mn) and net variations of the individual samples of about 20%. Cadmium, copper and nickel reveal conservative behaviour when values from this study and literature data from the Kattegat and North Sea area are plotted against salinity.     

Neoproterozoic tectonothermal evolution of the Central Eastern Desert, Egypt: a slow velocity tectonic process of core complex exhumation

Regional cooling in the course of Neoproterozoic core complex exhumation in the Central Eastern Desert of Egypt is constraint by ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of hornblende and muscovite from Meatiq, Sibai and Hafafit domes. The data reveal highly diachronous cooling with hornblende ages clustering around 580 Ma in the Meatiq and the Hafafit, and 623 and 606 Ma in the Sibai. These ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages are interpreted together with previously published structural and petrological data, radiometric ages obtained from Neoproterozoic plutons, and data on sediment dynamics from the intramontane Kareim molasse basin. Early-stage low velocity exhumation was triggered by magmatism initiated at 650 Ma in the Sibai and caused early deposition of molasses sediments within rim synforms. Rapid late stage exhumation was released by combined effect of strike-slip and normal faulting, exhumed Meatiq and Hafafit domes and continued until 580 Ma. We propose a new model that adopts core complex exhumation in oblique island arc collision-zones and includes transpression combined with lateral extrusion dynamics. In this model, continuous magma generation weakened the crust leading to facilitation of lateral extrusion tectonics. Since horizontal shortening is balanced by extension, no major crustal thickening and no increase of potential energy (gravitational collapse) is necessarily involved in the process of core complex formation. Core complexes were continuously but slowly exhumed without creating a significant mountain topography.     

Traffic-related platinum group elements (PGE) in soils from Mexico City

The first evaluation of the distribution of platinum group elements (PGE) derived from automobile catalytic converters in urban soil samples in Mexico City was carried out. There are more than four millions cars in Mexico City and, at the present time, one third of them have catalytic converters. PGE concentrations in soils exposed to high traffic densities exceed the natural background values by upto two orders of magnitude and are directly influenced by traffic conditions. The highest concentrations of Pt, Pd and Rh in the analyzed samples are about 300, 70 and 40 μg/l, respectively. Although the PGE concentrations found in soil samples are relatively low, they represent an accumulation of only 10 yr. It is likely that the use of catalytic converters will dramatically change the distribution of these metals in the urban environment in the next decades.     

Cosmic shear in inflationary models of Bianchi types VIII and IX

Two exact solutions of Einstein's field equations of vacuum are presented and investigated. We will regard the term vacuum fluid as the limiting case of scalar field with an almost constant potential. Considering the four velocity of this fluid we find, that in both solutions there is an anisotropic expansion of the cosmic fluid, but the fluid has vanishing vorticity.We investigate whether shear could prevent the transition into an inflationary era in these models, and the effect of shear on a scalar field is also considered. It is found that shear will speed up the rollover of the scalar field in some Bianchi type-VIII models.Possible initial conditions are discussed in light of the group structures of the models.     

Height and period distributions of extreme waves

The paper derives probability distributions for height and period for the highest wave occurring at a fixed location when the sea state varies. Short-term distributions of height and period are derived using a data base of waverider data from the Norwegian Sea. The derived theoretical relationships are illustrated by various examples of measured long-term statistics of the sea state.