On the breakdown of the westerlies

The dynamics of the ultra‐long Rossby waves are studied with the aid of a primitive equation numerical model. The investigation is focused on a study of the breakdown of a high‐index circulation. Different idealized flow patterns are used as initial conditions and forecasts are made with the numerical model. The influences of oceans and mountains are studied by incorporating them into the model. The results indicate that barotropic and baroclinic instabilities as well as the structure of the earth's surface are of importance for the development, but the experiments do not clearly indicate which one of these factors is most important.     

Future mitigation commitments: differentiating among non-Annex I countries

Abstract

In the long term, any definition of adequacy consistent with UNFCCC Article 2 will require increased mitigation efforts from almost all countries. Therefore, an expansion of emission limitation commitments will form a central element of any future architecture of the climate regime. This expansion has two elements: deepening of quantitative commitments for Annex B countries and the adoption of commitments for those countries outside of the current limitation regime. This article seeks to provide a more analytical basis for further differentiation among non-Annex I countries. To be both fair and reflective of national circumstances, it is based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate. Altogether, non-Annex I countries were differentiated in four groups, each including countries with similar national circumstances: newly industrialized countries (NICs), rapidly industrializing countries (RIDCs), ‘other developing countries’, and least developed countries (LDCs). Based on the same criteria that were used for differentiating among non-Annex I countries, a set of decision rules was developed to assign mitigation and financial transfer commitments to each group of countries (including Annex I countries). Applying these decision rules results in (strict) reduction commitments for Annex I countries, but also implies quantifiable mitigation obligations for NICs and RIDCs, assisted by financial transfers from the North. Other developing countries are obliged to take qualitative commitments, but quantifiable mitigation commitments for these countries and the LDC group would be not justifiable. As national circumstances in countries evolve over time, the composition of the groups will change according to agreed triggers.     

Equitable access to sustainable development: operationalizing key criteria

Equitable access to sustainable development (EASD) is crucial for the future of the climate regime as it applies to adaptation, mitigation, and the means of implementation. An approach to allocating effort and deriving carbon budgets is presented here based on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) principles of responsibility, capability, and sustainable development. A transparent model to operationalize EASD is applied by applying quantitative proxies for these criteria, and results for selected countries and groups are presented. A robust result is that the mitigation burden calculated by the model is significantly greater for developed than developing countries. For individual countries the results vary depending on the parameters chosen. A middle value of the mitigation burden for South Africa of 15 GtCO₂e over the first half of the 21st century is reported, with the greatest effort required when a starting year of 1970 is chosen and historical land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions are excluded when accounting for responsibility. In a regime applicable to all, it is clear that although all countries must do more, some must do more than others.

Policy relevance

Equitable access to sustainable development is crucial to the climate negotiations. Quantified allocations are presented for South Africa and other countries, based on the UNFCCC principles of responsibility, capability, and sustainable development. It is shown that the mitigation burden given these principles must be significantly greater for developed than developing countries. The results are relevant to, inter alia, the upcoming 2013–2015 review and the negotiations under the Durban Platform.     

The distribution of megablocks in the Ries crater,Germany: Remote sensing,field investigation,and statistical analyses

The Ries crater is a well‐preserved, complex impact crater that has been extensively used in the study of impact crater formation processes across the solar system. However, its geologic structure, especially the megablock zone, still poses questions regarding crater formation mechanics. The megablock zone, located between the inner crystalline ring and outer, morphologic crater rim, consists of allochthonous crystalline and sedimentary blocks, Bunte Breccia deposits, patches of suevite, and parautochthonous sedimentary blocks that slumped into the crater during crater modification. Our remote sensing detection method in combination with a shallow drilling campaign and geoelectric measurements at two selected megablocks proved successful in finding new megablock structures (>25 m mean diameter) within the upper approximately 1.5 m of the subsurface in the megablock zone. We analyzed 1777 megablocks of the megablock zone, 81 of which are new discoveries. In our statistical analysis, we also included 2318 ejecta blocks >25 m beyond the crater rim. Parautochthonous megablocks show an increase in total area and size toward the final crater rim. The sizes of allochthonous megablocks generally decrease with increasing radial range, but inside the megablock zone, the coverage with postimpact sediments obscures this trend. The size‐frequency distribution of all megablocks obeys a power‐law distribution with an exponent between approximately ?1.7 and ?2.3. We estimated a total volume of 95 km³ of Bunte Breccia and 47 km³ of megablocks. Ejecta volume calculations and a palinspastic restoration of the extension within the megablock zone indicate that the transient cavity diameter was probably 14–15 km.     

Lithological mapping and fuzzy set theory: Automated extraction of lithological boundary from ASTER imagery by template matching and spatial accuracy assessment

Lithological boundaries provide information useful for activities such as mineral and hydrocarbon exploration, water resource surveys, and natural hazard evaluation. Automated detection of lithological boundaries reduces bias inherent in expert interpretation of boundaries and thus improves the reliability of lithological mapping. The Rotation Variant Template Matching (RTM) algorithm was applied to ASTER imagery to detect pre-defined lithological boundaries. Templates incorporating the mineral combinations gypsum–calcite and calcite–illite were designed to detect boundaries between evaporites, marly limestone, and sandstone. The RTM algorithm successfully detected lithological boundaries by rotating the templates over the ASTER imagery. The accuracy of the detected boundaries was spatially assessed using fuzzy set theory. Boundaries from a published geological map and boundaries interpreted from a stereo pair of aerial photos by five experts were used as references for assessing the accuracy. A confidence region unifying spatial errors was defined for the geological map and stereo-pair interpretation to provide boundary zones from these references. The correspondence between detected boundaries and the boundary zones of the aerial photo was better than between detected boundaries and boundary zones of the geological map.     

High-resolution atmospheric angular momentum functions related to Earth rotation parameters during CONT08

Due to the temporal resolution of available numerical weather analyses, the effect of the atmosphere on Earth rotation at daily and sub-daily periods is usually investigated using 6-hourly atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) functions. During the period of CONT08, however, atmospheric analysis data were provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) also on an hourly basis. In this paper, we, therefore, determine two sets of AAM functions from ECMWF data—one for CONT08 with hourly resolution and one for the year 2008 with 6-hourly resolution. The comparisons of the AAM functions to high-resolution Earth rotation parameters (ERP) from VLBI and GPS observations are carried out in the frequency domain. Special attention is paid to the preparation of the high-resolution data sets for the geodetic purposes, as there are jump discontinuities at 12 h intervals. Hence, the hourly AAM functions need to be concatenated. The revised functions yield much smaller amplitudes than their 6-hourly counterparts, as can be seen from the equatorial and the axial frequency spectra of atmospheric excitation in Earth rotation. This decrease of spectral power in the hourly AAM functions is found to be associated with a strong counteraction of pressure and wind terms, which originates from atmospheric circulation on short time scales. The results are compared to previous findings published by Brzeziński and Petrov (IERS Tech Note 28:53–60, 2000) based on the data from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).     

The baryte-bearing beryl-phosphate pegmatite Plössberg—A missing link between pegmatitic and vein-type barium mineralization in NE Bavaria, Germany

Pegmatites and aplites enriched in P, Be, Nb, Ta and Li occur in the high-temperature metamorphic lithological units of the NE Bavarian Basement, SE Germany. They are accompanied by Ba mineralization, in vein-type deposits in the basement as well as in its foreland. Locally, Ba minerals are encountered in the late Variscan pegmatites and aplites too. The shallow discordant stock-like pegmatites (Hagendorf-type) are barren as to Ba, but in the tabular, concordant aplites and pegmatites Ba was concentrated (Plössberg-type). These concordant pegmatites and aplites are supposed to be the root zone of the intrusive pegmatites. In the rare case of low sulfur fugacity, Ba forms Ba–Zr–K–Sc phosphates/silicates in the pegmatites (transition of magmatic into the hydrothermal stages I/II). Under high sulfur fugacity, Ba is accommodated within the same stages in the structure of baryte. Barium is not accommodated in the lattice of phosphates during or in the immediate aftermaths of the emplacement of these Be–P–Nb–Ta pegmatites (stage III). This element shows up again in APS minerals during supergene alteration under acidic conditions (stage IV). Considering the host rocks of baryte mineralization, the Sr contents of baryte increased from the early Paleozoic to the Late Triassic. The Sr contents of baryte are a function of the depth below ground in the vein-type deposits and in the shear-zones bounding the tabular concordant pegmatites. Beryl is not only a marker mineral for the shear-zone-hosted pegmatites but can also be used as a tool for the geodynamic positioning of these pegmatites using its oxygen isotopes. A subdivision of the pegmatites into intrusive and shear-zone hosted may be achieved by its REE and minor elements.     

Challenging the planetary boundaries II: Assessing the sustainable global population and phosphate supply,using a systems dynamics assessment model

A systems dynamics model was developed to assess the planetary boundary for P supply in relation to use by human society. It is concluded that present day use rates and poor recycling rates of P are unsustainable at timescales beyond 100+ a. The predictions made suggest that P will become a scarce and expensive material in the future. The study shows clearly that market mechanisms alone will not be able to secure an efficient use before a large part of the resource will have been allowed to dissipate into the natural environment. It is suggested that population size management and effective recycling measures must be planned long term to avoid unpleasant consequences of hunger and necessary corrections imposed on society by mass balance and thermodynamics.     

Divergent growth trajectories in China’s chemical industry: the case of the newly developed industrial parks in Shanghai,Nanjing and Ningbo

In the late 1990’s, the “new-economy” industries in China proved to be relatively vulnerable and were strongly hit by the financial crisis in Asia. As a result, a new economic support policy was introduced in China’s Yangtze Delta region, which put greater emphasis on the support of traditional industrial sectors, including the chemical industry. This paper investigates the effects of the growth of this industry, as well as the potential and current problems emerging from new growth paths. It compares the growth of three newly developed chemical industry parks in Shanghai, Nanjing and Ningbo. The paper is based on an institutional perspective of clustering processes arguing that regional industrialization is subject to formal and informal institutions which shape the growth paths and contribute to divergent regional trajectories. Although these industrial parks all benefit from the general economic upswing in China, their development is influenced by different business models, economic contexts, goals and strategies, leaving room for divergence and specialization. Due to the existing structure of operations, these parks have a great deal of potential but also face substantial challenges, such as the establishment of internal networks and close customer linkages. It is argued that this might limit their innovative capability in the future. Furthermore, their growth prospects differ depending on future government policies.