Estimating Runoff Using Hydro-Geodetic Approaches

Given the continuous decline in global runoff data availability over the past decades, alternative approaches for runoff determination are gaining importance. When aiming for global scale runoff at a sufficient temporal resolution and with homogeneous accuracy, the choice to use spaceborne sensors is only a logical step. In this respect, we take water storage changes from Gravity Recovery And Climate Explorer (grace) results and water level measurements from satellite altimetry, and present a comprehensive assessment of five different approaches for river runoff estimation: hydrological balance equation, hydro-meteorological balance equation, satellite altimetry with quantile function-based stage–discharge relationships, a rudimentary instantaneous runoff–precipitation relationship, and a runoff–storage relationship that takes time lag into account. As a common property, these approaches do not rely on hydrological modeling; they are either purely data driven or make additional use of atmospheric reanalyses. Further, these methods, except runoff–precipitation ratio, use geodetic observables as one of their inputs and, therefore, they are termed hydro-geodetic approaches. The runoff prediction skill of these approaches is validated against in situ runoff and compared to hydrological model predictions. Our results show that catchment-specific methods (altimetry and runoff–storage relationship) clearly outperform the global methods (hydrological and hydro-meteorological approaches) in the six study regions we considered. The global methods have the potential to provide runoff over all landmasses, which implies gauged and ungauged basins alike, but are still limited due to inconsistencies in the global hydrological and hydro-meteorological datasets that they use.     

Finite prandtl number convection in spherical shells

Abstract

Finite amplitude convection in spherical shells with spherically symmetric gravity and heat source distribution is considered. The nonlinear problem of three-dimensional convection in shells with stress-free and isothermal boundaries is solved by expanding the dependent variables in terms of powers of the amplitude of convection. The preferred mode of convection is determined by a stability analysis in which arbitrary infinitesimal disturbances are superimposed on the steady solutions. The shell is assumed to be thick and only shells for which the ratio ζ of outer radius to inner radius is 2 or 3 are considered. Three cases, two of which lead to a self adjoint problem, are treated in this paper. The stable solutions are found to be l=2 modes for ζ=3 where l is the degree of the spherical harmonics and an l=3 non-axisymmetric mode which exhibits the symmetry of a tetrahedron for ζ=2. These stable solutions transport the maximum amount of heat. The Prandtl number dependence of the heat transport is computed for the various solutions analyzed in the paper.     

Untangling the influence of in-lake productivity and terrestrial organic matter flux on 4,250 years of mercury accumulation in Lake Hambre, Southern Chile

There is ongoing debate about the relative influence of aquatic production, flux, and sedimentation of aquatic and terrestrial organic matter on mercury accumulation in lake sediments. In this study, lake sediments spanning the past 4,250 years, were collected from remote, organic-rich Lake Hambre, Patagonia (53° S) and investigated for changes in the accumulation of pre-anthropogenic mercury and organic matter of aquatic and terrestrial origin. Natural mercury accumulation varied by up to a factor of four, comparable to the recent anthropogenic forcing of the mercury cycle (factor 3–5). Hydrogen and Oxygen indices (HI and OI, Rock–Eval©) and nitrogen/carbon ratios of the organic matter, combined with multi-element sediment data, reveal intense changes in aquatic productivity as well as influx of terrestrial organic matter into the lake. Evaluation of the multi-element dataset using Principal Component Analysis shows clear covariation of mercury with other soil-derived elements such as copper and yttrium. This covariance reflects a common transport mechanism, i.e. leaching of trace-element-bearing organic matter complexes from catchment soils. Correlation between changes in aquatic productivity and mercury concentrations occurs in some sections of the record, but we do not suggest they are linked by a direct causal relationship. Mass balance approaches suggest that mercury scavenging and accumulation in this organic-rich lake is controlled by the supply of mercury from catchment soils rather than the amount of organic material produced within the water column. A common controlling mechanism, i.e. changing climate, however, is thought to independently drive variations in both the flux of terrestrial organic matter mercury complexes and aquatic productivity.     

Estimation and testing of higher-order spatial autoregressive panel data error component models

This paper develops an estimator for higher-order spatial autoregressive panel data error component models with spatial autoregressive disturbances, SARAR(R,S). We derive the moment conditions and optimal weighting matrix without distributional assumptions for a generalized moments (GM) estimation procedure of the spatial autoregressive parameters of the disturbance process and define a generalized two-stage least squares estimator for the regression parameters of the model. We prove consistency of the proposed estimators, derive their joint asymptotic distribution, and provide Monte Carlo evidence on their small sample performance.     

Electrical conductivity of H-bearing orthopyroxene single crystals measured with impedance spectroscopy

In this study, the electrical conductivity of synthetic and natural orthopyroxene single crystals containing various amounts of hydrogen and cation impurities (i.e., Al, Fe) was investigated using impedance spectroscopy. A new cell was developed to measure conductivities of submillimeter-sized oriented single crystals with impedances up to 10¹⁰?Ohm. In contrast to previous studies on olivine and orthopyroxene, results from this study do not show a simple correlation of the concentration of protons and the electrical conductivity. Instead, the electrical conductivity appears to be a complex function of iron content, hydrogen content, crystal orientation and concentration of other impurity cations and shows similar activation energies to hydrogen diffusion. Model calculations considering proton conduction rather exclude than suggest orthopyroxene as responsible phase for high-conductivity regions in the Earth’s upper mantle.     

Exponential time integrators for stochastic partial differential equations in 3D reservoir simulation

The transport of chemically reactive solutes (e.g. surfactants, CO₂ or dissolved minerals) is of fundamental importance to a wide range of applications in oil and gas reservoirs such as enhanced oil recovery and mineral scale formation. In this work, we investigate exponential time integrators, in conjunction with an upwind weighted finite volume discretisation in space, for the efficient and accurate simulation of advection–dispersion processes including non-linear chemical reactions in highly heterogeneous 3D oil reservoirs. We model sub-grid fluctuations in transport velocities and uncertainty in the reaction term by writing the advection–dispersion–reaction equation as a stochastic partial differential equation with multiplicative noise. The exponential integrators are based on the variation of constants solution and solve the linear system exactly. While this is at the expense of computing the exponential of the stiff matrix representing the finite volume discretisation, the use of real Léja point or the Krylov subspace technique to approximate the exponential makes these methods competitive compared to standard finite difference-based time integrators. For the deterministic system, we investigate two exponential time integrators, the second-order accurate exponential Euler midpoint (EEM) scheme and exponential time differencing of order one (ETD1). All our numerical examples demonstrate that our methods can compete in terms of efficiency and accuracy compared with standard first-order semi-implicit time integrators when solving (stochastic) partial differential equations that model mixing and chemical reactions in 3D heterogeneous porous media. Our results suggest that exponential time integrators such as the ETD1 and EEM schemes could be applied to typical 3D reservoir models comprising tens to hundreds of thousands unknowns.     

Universal time from VLBI single-baseline observations during CONT08

The IVS Intensive sessions are single-baseline, 1-h VLBI sessions carried out everyday in order to determine Universal Time (UT1). We investigate different possibilities to improve the results of such sessions. We do this investigation by extracting 2-h single-baseline sessions from the CONT08 data set. These are analysed like normal Intensives, and the results are compared to the results of the analysis of the full CONT08 data set. We find that tropospheric asymmetry is the major error source for the single-baseline sessions. It is possible to improve the accuracy of the estimated UT1 either by using accurate a priori tropospheric gradients or by estimating gradients in the data analysis.